The Eastern Partnership Christophe Hillion* JMWEN, University of Leiden *this presentation is based on the SEI working-paper co-authored with Prof. Alan Mayhew (JMWEN, SEI)

 Polish and Swedish initiatives  Fifth enlargement (UK + Sweden initiatives)  ENP shortcomings  ‘Union for the Mediterranean’  Georgia  PL and S initiatives endorsed by European Council, which invites the Commission to come forward with proposals  COM(2008) 823  Joint Declaration of the Prague Eastern Partnership Summit

The EaP countries

AIMS: – A lasting political message of solidarity, through ‘political association’ – ‘Economic integration’ involving a broader regional trade approach, i.e. the possible establishment of a Neighbourhood Economic Community inspired from the EEA ‘where appropriate’ MEANS: – New contractual (bilateral) relations: i.e. Association Agts – A new framework for multilateral cooperation – Institutional framework – New financial resources

Association Agreements, i.e. beyond PCAs ‘Political association’, i.e. more than political ‘dialogue’ Gradual economic integration: towards a DCFTA Enhancing mobility, visa liberalisation ‘as long term perspective’ Multifarious enhanced cooperation (including Energy security, mobility) involving regulatory convergence with EU standards Flanking policies: eco and social developments of Partners New institutional structures: decision-making power + joint- monitoring

Thematic platforms – Democracy, good governance and stability (institution building, ESDP participation) – Economic integration and convergence with EU policies (Regional DCFTAs => NEC) – Energy security (mutual support, harmonisation, interconnectedness, diversification) – Contacts between people Flagship initiatives – Integrated border management programme – SME facility – Promotion of regional electricity markets, energy efficiency and renewable energy sources – Development of the southern energy corridor – Cooperation on prevention of, preparedness for and response to natural and man-made disasters New institutional framework and governance – Meetings of EaP Heads of State or Government every two years – Annual Spring meetings of EU+EE Ministers of FA – Bi-annual platforms meetings at senior officials level – Meetings of panels supporting the work of the thematic platforms – Civil society forum – Possible participation of the CoR, EESC

A combination of fresh and re-programmed ENPI fund adding up to €600 millions for EaP initiatives ENPI funding could be progressively increased from €450 Million (2008) to €785 Million (2013); i.e. need for additional €350 million of fresh funds ENPI Regional Programme refocused to sustain EaP multilateral dimension €250 million under the current ENPI envelop to be devoted to EaP initiatives Possible Member States’ bilateral financial contributions Ensure effective delivery and improve donor coordination (EIB, EBRD), and leverage more investment money

 The ‘enthusiast’  The ‘skeptic’  The ‘cynic’  The ‘pragmatist’

 triggers new momentum in EU relations with East European Countries (EEC)  positive EU signal towards EEC  genuinely deepens EU-EEC links  shows ‘adaptability’ of EU policy towards EEC  is a comprehensive and coherent EU policy  shows EU diplomatic credentials BY  typifies that accession of new States triggers fresh ideas within the EU

 yet another initiative in an already well, if not over-furnished, EU policy towards EE  no added-value  does not address the criticisms that were formulated towards the ENP  too timid on important symbolic gestures towards EEC  the DCFTA is not workable  the multilateral dimension is not expedient, let alone viable – only the bilateral dimension is attractive and workable  resources are too limited and are unlikely to get increased after 2013  Further antagonises Russia

 essentially about addressing EU/MS security concerns  a vehicule to promote EU/MS economic interests at the smallest cost possible  a red herring to distract from the real question: i.e. membership prospect of EaPs

 the best formula the EU can offer at this stage  useful re-packaging of ENP that makes it more palatable  takes account of EEC wishes  EaP is a project based initiative with potential: towards ‘solidarités de fait’ between the EU and EEC  It leaves open the question of future relationship