Advancing foresight methodology through networked conversations Ted Fuller Peter De Smedt Dale Rothman European Science Foundation COllaboration in Science and Technology Action A22 (COST A22) FTA Seville, Sept 2006

Aims To understand and articulate methodological bases in order to re- examine and develop methods that are methodologically consistent and therefore robust The context is foresight practice – ways of exploring, examining and negotiating the relationship between present actions and future outcomes Sustainability an organising principle

COST A22 “Exploring New Ways to Explore the Future" A four year programme (2004-7) Opportunities for previously unconnected communities to learn from each other’s experience and expertise with Foresight methodologies. Networks of over 150 academics, consultants and policy / S&T practitioners from 23 countries Research and development of Foresight methodology Communication of and co-operation on foresight methodology among researchers and practitioners

Questions addressed How to perceive what is needed? How to learn from practice? How to do better? Developing insights into the role of foresight, for example: Foresight Practice is a continuous linkage between theories of social change and society – for instance : visions…dialogue… practice Reflecting and revising

Methodology ‘Methods of knowing’, i.e. that gives an explanation of ‘how we know’ something Puzzle solving devices which require us to make assumptions of what the world is and what stands for knowledge NB from this perspective Delphi, impact analysis, scenarios etc. etc. are methods rather than methodologies

Working Groups Working Group 1 Working Group 2 Working Group 3 “Identifying seeds of change” “Integrating narratives and numbers” “Interactions between researchers, decision- makers, and the public” Description Working Group 0 Sensing Modelling Discourse, communication and power Focus Foundations of meaning “Definition of concepts”

Also, inter-group working via WG0

Example of inter-group work in progress Some key methodological features of foresight Time Descriptive difference Representation Production of difference Simulation Communication and meaning Reflexivity Participation Action Values

Example of mapping: “difference” Difference:, i.e. abstraction from real worlds and re-categorising of concepts or events are fundamental to producing descriptions of different futures Methodological issues include: “creativity, boundaries, meta-analysis, symbols, ordering, classification, situatedness, redundancy, coherence, selection, risk”, i.e. ways of abstracting and describing differences Time Descriptive difference Representation Production of difference Simulation Communication and meaning Reflexivity Participation Action Values

Outputs Documentation 2 or 3 special editions of journals (e.g. Futures, Technological Forecasting and Social Change) Planned Book (s) and Reports Working papers on web site Network collaborations Joint project proposals New educational courses (e.g. Masters degree in foresight/innovation) Linkages with other EU networks (e.g. ForSociety,ForLearn etc.) Conference…

Main dissemination events: FROM ORACLES TO DIALOGUE “Exploring new ways to explore the future” A COST A22 conference National Technical University, Athens, Greece 9-11 July 2007 Call for papers in October 2007 linked to working group themes SUMMER SCHOOL National Technical University, Athens, Greece July 2007

Futures… Foresight in a reflexive world -Continuous reappraisal of linkages between social theory and foresight practice -Coherent development of social foresight competence – order in diversity -New methodological features reflecting social and technological change: -Critical dialogue -Theory-in-practice -Communities of practice -Wiki power

Roadmaps Example: technology road-maps

Roadmaps Foundations Consumption/use Assimilation, production, distribution Time Linking theory and practice Space for dialogue between communities Vision (explicit and contestable)

“Reflexive” roadmaps Epistemology, Methodology Practice: strategy, policy, actions Methods, structures Time implicit explicit Foresight Practice: a flow of knowledge that informs dialogue, meaning and responsibility - between society and social theory - between action and policy

Thank you Questions?