Trends and associated questions The cases of age and ethnicity Professor James Nazroo University College London

An Ageing World The number of elderly people (those aged 65 and older) increased more than threefold since In Europe 14% of the population is 65 and older; by 2050 this is estimated to be 28% of the population The rate of increase of the 65 and older population is accelerating: Currently it is 8 million people per year; In 2030 it is estimated to be 24 million people per year. The oldest old (those aged 80 and older) is the fastest growing group among the elderly.

Survival rates by age and period: UK women

Impacts of an ageing population? Does older age necessarily equate with: Illness and physical dependency; Poverty and financial dependency; Not having a role in society; Being dissatisfied. A looming catastrophe, as populations top-heavy with frail, retired elderly drain pension and social security funds, overwhelm health care systems, and rely for support on a dwindling working-age population.

Labour force participation among older men Full-timePart-timeSelf-employed Banks and Smith, FES

Labour force participation among older women Full-timePart-timeSelf-employed Banks and Smith, FES

Cohort differences in income (1996 prices) Banks and Smith, FES

Chronic disability (Americans aged 65 plus) Manton et al Total population aged 65+ was 26.9m (Projected) Total population aged 65+ was 34.1m Total population aged 65+ was 33.7m Total population aged 65+ was 30.8m

Chronic disability (Americans aged 65 plus) Manton et al Total population aged 65+ was 26.9m (Projected) Total population aged 65+ was 34.1m Total population aged 65+ was 33.7m Total population aged 65+ was 30.8m

The Third Age/Successful Ageing Post-retirement, post-parenting, but pre-dependency; Contributing to society: Voluntary/community activities; Political/civic engagement; Consuming and enjoying life, leisure and pleasure; Self-fulfilment Having a role Having status Having fun Healthy, wealthy and engaged in society

Morbidity by Occupational Grade at Older Ages Median Age 77 (range 67-97) Whitehall II

Ethnicity in the 2001 Census What is your ethnic group (cultural background)? White:British; Irish; Any other White background. Mixed:White and Black Caribbean; White and Black African; White and Asian; Any other Mixed background. Asian or Asian British:Indian; Pakistani; Bangladeshi; Any other Asian background. Black or Black British:Caribbean; African; Any other Black Background Chinese or other ethnic group: Chinese; Any other

New ethnic identities: tradition or translation and hybridity The effect of globalisation has been to contest the settled, unified and trans- historical contours of national identity … This might lead to a strengthening of local identities – the revival of cultural traditionalism, perhaps in response to the experience of cultural racism and exclusion – or the production of new identities Migration means people are Obliged to come to terms with the new cultures they inhabit... They bear upon them the traces of the particular cultures, traditions, languages and histories by which they were shaped... [but] they are irrevocably the product of several interlocking histories and cultures... people belonging to such cultures of hybridity have had to renounce the dream [of] ethnic absolutism. They are irrevocably translated... they must learn to inhabit at least two identities, to speak two cultural languages, to translate and negotiate between them. Hall (1992)

Ethnic composition of the English population 2001 Census * estimated from 1999 HSE NumberPer centPer cent migrant* White British42,747, White Irish624, Other White1,308, Black Caribbean (incl. mixed)793, Black African (incl. mixed)552, Other Black95, Indian Asian1,029, Pakistani Asian707, Bangladeshi Asian275, Other Asian238, Mixed White and Asian184, Chinese221, Other (incl. other mixed)336,

Change in the ethnic composition of the English population: 1991 to Census figures calculated using an algorithm derived from Nazroo and Karlsen (manuscript)

Ethnic differences in occupational position IV/V IIIm IIInm I/II RG class of head of household Male employment rates White English White minority ChineseBangl- adeshi PakistaniIndianCaribbean Health Survey for England 1999 Per cent

Ethnic differences in equivalised household income Health Survey for England 1999

Racism, discrimination and racial prejudice One in 8 ethnic minority people experience racial harassment in a year. Repeated racial harassment is a common experience. 25% of ethnic minority people say they are fearful of racial harassment. 20% of ethnic minority people report being refused a job for racial reasons, and almost 3/4 of them say it has happened more than once. 20% of ethnic minority people believe that most employers would refuse somebody a job for racial reasons, only 12% thought no employers would do this. White people freely report their own prejudice: One in four say they are prejudiced against Asian people; One in five say they are prejudiced against Caribbean people. Modood et al. 1997

Reported fair or bad health Health Survey for England 1999

Reported fair or bad health by ethnic group and age Health Survey for England 1999

Generation and occupational class: Per cent in a manual occupation Health Survey for England 1999

Conclusions Outcomes are not inevitable: positives as well as negatives Variation in outcomes within the UK population Variation in outcomes internationally Importance of policy context Need for good data to inform policy