Poverty vs Public policy * India doesn't have a poverty estimate now * It doesn't have a poverty line * But most of the programmes are targeted at poor * Does this mean development programmes will miss them?

Poverty vs Public policy ● India faces a tough question: how to measure poverty? ● In three years three expert groups ● In six months, twice the estimates rejected ● First time, poverty line makes headlines

How poverty is measured? ● Poverty line: 2400 kcal/day/person for rural; 2200kcal for urban ● Poverty estimate: Consumption expenditure is the proxy for income ● Poverty programmes: A separate survey finds out poor households

Line of contention ● Poverty line is never meant for targeting programmes ● It is always vague in its degree ● But 1997 – post-liberalisation – saw two Indias emerging; APL and BPL ● There are major fights on ● In May govt. decided to junk the poverty line

But, the poverty line is.. ● Rs. 22/day/person as rural ● Rs. 29/day/person as urban ● Total poor: 354 million ● Urban expenditure is 88 per cent higher than rural ● 83 million rural people survive on Rs 15 a day

Poverty forever ● Poverty getting chronic ● Natural resources are more prone to it ● Tribal and forested areas much more prone ● Access to resource is the big trigger ● Only 9 out of 29 progs can prevent poverty

South Asia: Repeat India * Generate 2% of world income; support 20% population * World’s fastest growing economic region; recession no show * World’s largest poor population; 50% of total * Rich in resources; very high land use * Hunger is epidemic; food insecurity increasing

SA Vs World

An ecological entity * 60% dependence on natural resources; 95% in Nepal * 60% labours in agriculture; 90% in Nepal * Contributes 25% GDP; decreased by 20% ( ) * Population dependence remains same * Livestock dependence increasing; 1 to 1.3 billion between * Urbanisation increasing; thus increase in natural resources

B.M.I decreasing Forest decrease: 0.7% in , 0.8% in Land degradation: 42% degraded; 50% of dry land under desertification Water: 40% run off; glaciers receding; water stressed by 2020 Food insecurity increasing; 50% by 2010

Water poverty?

Global ramifications ● If SA can't do it, world will not do it ● Chronic poverty worries the world ● Can block Africa development ● But, India holds lessons: good and bad ● If India can do, all can do it