Mediterranean and Middle Eastern Security Dimitris Keridis Associate Professor of International Politics Panteion University From the Arab Spring to the.

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Presentation transcript:

Mediterranean and Middle Eastern Security Dimitris Keridis Associate Professor of International Politics Panteion University From the Arab Spring to the Spring of Jihad?

The Problem After Mosul: the collapse of Syria and Iraq ISIS and the emergence of a Sunni Caliphate

The Problem

The Framework External forces: The US intervention in Iraq in 2003 Regional forces: The democratic awakening of the Arab people The Shia-Sunni Divide The Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry +Turkey, +Russia, +USA

The Framework Internal forces: Nouri al-MalikiBashar Assad The Kurds

Other Factors Obama’s aloofness after withdrawing from Iraq in 2011 The regional/international constellation

Consequences and prospects Collapse, re-drawing of borders, protracted civil war

Consequences and prospects A basis for global jihad

Consequences and prospects Mass migration

Consequences and prospects Rapprochement between Iran and the US

Consequences and prospects The US political polarization: the neo-cons and the rest