Global Conflict and Global Order

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Armed conflict vs. order in international relations Armed conflicts arise from various causes International orders are created to prevent, resolve, or contain conflicts Rule-bound competition between interests? Controlled conflicts?

Main models of international order:  Hegemonic order  Balance of power  Democratic peace  Network-based multipolar order

“Six clusters of threats” to peace and security in contemporary world* 1. Socioeconomic threats, including  poverty  infectious disease  environmental degradation 2. Inter-state conflict 3. Internal conflict, including  Civil war  Genocide  Other large-scale atrocities *UN Secretary General’s report “In Larger Freedom”: Report - Table of ContentsReport - Table of Contents ; UN Secretary-General’s High-level Panel’s report “A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility” : Report of the Secretary-General's High-level Panel

4. Proliferation and possible use of weapons of mass destruction  nuclear  radiological  chemical  biological 5. Terrorism 6. Transnational organized crime

In contemporary world, it is often hard to draw a line between international conflicts and internal conflicts within nations – there is a tendency toward globalization of conflict  Internal conflicts are more likely to have international implications  International developments tend to have more rapid and significant impact on internal situations Example: 4 levels of conflict in Afghanistan: 4 levels of conflict (Afghanistan as example):  Global – US and NATO vs. Al Qaeda and Taliban  Regional – interests of neighbouring states  National – Taliban vs. the Afghan Government, Pakistani Taliban vs. the Pakistani Government  Local – opium industry, arms trade, ethnic conflicts All 4 levels are closely interconnected

The tendency toward globalization of conflict has been developing since the start of World War I in 1914 What made world wars possible:  19 th century economic globalization led to growing interconnectedness, integration of societies  Struggle for power within countries acquired international dimensions  Availability of economic resources  Development of military technologies  The culture of war  New rationalizations of war  The idea of total war

National War Memorial, Ottawa

World War I: World War II: The Cold War: The Global War on Terror: 2001-?

World War I: was a cumulative effect of: - -Rivalries between states (Germany-Britain, France- Germany, Russia-Austria, Germany-Russia, Russia- Turkey, etc.) - -Class conflicts within states - -Nationalist struggles against empires

The war for power and influence within the global system Expected to be brief The reality: a bloody 4-year stalemate Ended by revolutions in Russia (1917) and Germany (1918) 15 mln. deaths, incl. 9 mln. combat The flu pandemic of : mln. deaths: a direct environmental effect of “the Great War”

EUROPE, 1914

Declaration of war: Berlin

Adolf Hitler celebrating the start of the Great War: Munich, Germany, Aug. 1914

Declaration of war: London

Australian poster urging to volunteer

German troops advancing on Paris

French troops marching through Paris to the front

Lethal gases: first weapon of mass destruction

Endless slaughter

British soldiers blinded by poisonous gas

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World War I in retrospective – the start of a century of global conflict Read Eric Hobsbawm’s article “The Future of War and Peace” Eric Hobsbawm: The Future of War and Peace A good reference library on World War I: Trenches on the Web - Reference Library See also this BBC site: BBC - History - The Western Front, Animation

THE WAR AS A REVOLUTIONARY FORCE Results of the war: -Collapse of 4 empires: Russian, Austro-Hungarian, German, Turkish -World capitalism severely undermined – North and South (economically, politically, socially, ideologically) -The rise of social protest and revolutionary movements everywhere

The Russian Revolution, 1917

The 1917 revolution in Russia: The state has collapsed, citizen militias patrol streets

Vladimir Lenin, leader of the Communist Revolution in Russia

The radical proposal for a new world order The Peace Decree proclaimed by Russia’s new Soviet government in November 1917: 1. Call for immediate democratic peace without any territorial claims or indemnities 2. Right of all nations to self-determination 3. Willing to consider other terms proposed by other states 4. Immediate armistice for 3 months 5. Call to working people of the world to rise against “slavery and exploitation of any kind” Peace and revolution: were they compatible? Also: a promise to conduct diplomacy openly, without secret agreements with anyone

Woodrow Wilson, US President in

The liberal-democratic proposal for a new world order: US President Wilson’s “14 points”, January Open diplomacy, no secret treaties - Absolute freedom of the seas - Free trade - Maximum arms reduction - Right of nations to self-determination - Creation of an international organization to keep peace – League of Nations THE KEY THEME: “The principle of justice to all peoples and nationalities and the right to live on equal terms of liberty and safety with one another, whether they be strong or weak”

At the end of World War I, Soviet Russia and the United States offered alternatives to the collapsed world order Despite similarities, the two alternatives were fundamentally incompatible: US strove to preserve global capitalism through reform Russia sought to help world revolution to destroy capitalism and replace it with communism Allies in World War I, Russia and America became enemies as a result of the Russian revolution

US, Britain, France and Japan intervened in the Russian Civil War on the side of the counterrevolution They sent troops to occupy areas of Russia in the North and the Far East The US refused to recognize the Soviet Government until 1933

David Lloyd George, British PM George Clemenceau, French President Leaders of Britain and France stuck to the old rules

At the 1919 Paris Peace Conference, Britain and France, most influential Western powers, were driven by traditional power considerations They insisted on severely punishing Germany They sought to create a balance of power in Europe which would not let Germany become strong again They also sought to isolate Soviet Russia They and other Europeans were sceptical of Wilson’s grand design for democratic peace The League of Nations, created at Paris, was rejected by the US Congress The world order created after World War I, was deeply flawed: it contained the seeds of the next world war

Lloyd George, Clemenceau and Wilson at the Paris Peace Conference, 1919

World War II: Sources: Rivalries between Great Powers continued, no stable world order The ideological conflict between world capitalism and world communism – a global civil war  The rise of the Soviet Union ideologically committed to the destruction of capitalism  The rise of the Left in Europe and Asia, fears of new revolutions The Great Depression, , shattered the global economy and exacerbated both international and class conflicts Rise of fascism as a force which destroys democracy to:  defeat the Left  reorganize states for global imperialist war

Adolf Hitler

Iosif Stalin

Hitler publicly and repeatedly pledged to destroy the Soviet Union, billing himself as savior of the West from communism As a state committed to world revolution, Russia was viewed as a threat by Western elites The rise of fascism was partly a response to the threat – and anticommunism was one of the motives of Western appeasement of Hitler Stalin saw the prospect of a new world war as an opportunity for the spread of communism: the WWI precedent But ultimately, WWII was not about revolution: it was an interstate conflict of a traditional kind, similar to WWII, waged on a global scale

The geopolitical triangle: Germany, USSR, Western democracies (WDs) WDs hoped to channel Hitler’s aggression to the East, toward conflict with Russia – reluctant to fight Germany Hitler was determined to prevent WDs and USSR from joining forces: beat them one by one Stalin was determined to avoid war with Germany as long as possible 1939: A divergence of interests between USSR and WDs – and a convergence of interests between Germany and USSR The unexpected deal was logical – but only temporary

Moscow, August 23, 1939: German Foreign Minister Joachim von Ribbentrop signs non-aggression pact with Russia

September 1, 1939: Nazi Germany invades Poland

German troops in occupied Poland, 1939

Fascist dictators triumphant: Hitler and Mussolini in Munich, June 1940

Japanese attack on US Navy at Pearl Harbor, Dec.7, 1941

Nazi propaganda poster: SS forces kill the Red beast of communism

Nazi soldiers celebrating success in “Lightning War” against Russia, 1942

Nazi reign of terror in occupied Russia

Stubborn resistance

Defenders of Moscow, October 1941

DIMENSIONS OF WORLD WAR TWO Ideological: Global Right (The Axis: Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, and smaller allies) vs. Global Left (The USSR and the international communist movement) vs. Global Center (US, Britain, Nationalist China) 1939: Right and Left (Hitler and Stalin) make a deal, liberal democracy the big loser; the Right and Center at war 1941: The Right attacks both the Left and the US; a Center-Left coalition is formed 1945: The Right is defeated by the Center-Left coalition; the war’s aftermath gives a major boost to the global Left; liberal internationalism becomes the blueprint of a new world order

Geopolitical  The Axis was the challenger to the world order  The West was torn apart by the war  The Communist state, USSR, was in a position of a status-quo power and a victim of aggression – not as a revolutionary state  The battle for Russia was decisive for the defeat of the Axis challenge  Russia’s decisive role entitled it to geopolitical gains from common victory

The turning point of WWII. February 1943: German troops surrender at Stalingrad, Russia

Breaking the Nazi war machine

June 1944: Allied forces land in Normandy to liberate Western Europe from Nazi occupation

German POWs, Russia, 1944

German POWs outside Moscow, 1944

The victorious Allies: British PM Churchill, US President Roosevelt and Soviet Generalissimo Stalin at Yalta Conference, Russia, Feb.1945

The Soviet Red Army takes Berlin, May 1945

Berlin, 1945: surrender of the German High Command

Survivors of a Nazi concentration camp

July 1945: Stalin, Truman and Churchill at Potsdam, Germany

Aug.6, 1945: US atomic bombing of Hiroshima, Japan

Total number of human lives lost in WWII – mln. (est.) Total cost – Over $2 trln. (in 1990 US dollars)