1 Agenda Topic: Space Weather Modeling and the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) Presented By: Rodney Viereck(NWS/NCEP/SWPC) Contributors: Rashid Akmaev (SWPC) George Millward (SWPC and CIRES) Tim Fuller-Rowell (SWPC and CIRES)

2 Operational System Attribute(s) System NameAcronymAreal CoverageHorz Res Cycle Freq Fcst Length (hr) Wang-Sheeley-Arge EnlilWSA-EnlilSun to Earth2 hr72 hr Space Weather Modeling Framework (operational in Oct 2015) SWMF - Geospace Magnetosphere1 min0.5 hr Whole Atmosphere Model (extended GFS) (operational in 2018) WAMGlobal up to 600 km alt 200 km 1-3 hr120 hr Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics Model IPEGlobal 100 – 1000 km alt 5 min72 hr SystemAttributes WSA-EnlilNo DA SWMF Geospace No DA WDASGDAS + middle atmosphere data between 60 and 100 km IDASIonosphere/thermosphere data assimilation (100 – 600 km) currently under development System Data Assimilation or Initialization Technique

3 Why WAM Will Be Operational  Primary stakeholders and requirement drivers Space Weather Prediction Center Space weather customers (GPS, Radio Communication, Satellite Drag,…) Airlines, satellites, agriculture, transportation, emergency managers, DOD, etc…  What products are the models contributing to?  Multi-day forecasts of thermosphere and ionosphere  What product aspects are you trying to improve with your development plans?  Improved ionosphere specification and forecast accuracy  Global coverage  Multi-day ionosphere and thermosphere forecasts  Top 3 System Performance Strengths Unique capability to model and forecast all drivers of the Ionosphere/thermosphere system Leveraging GDAS/GFS multi-day forecasts of troposphere for space weather Improved troposphere forecasts  Top 3 System Performance Challenges New physics, chemistry, and dynamics for the middle and upper atmosphere New data assimilation scheme required for ionosphere/thermosphere

4 System Evolution Over the Next 5 Years  Major forcing factors Expanded use of technologies impacted by space weather (new customers) New physical understanding and new modeling capabilities provide new forecast opportunities  Science and development priorities Adding physics of middle and upper atmosphere to WAM Including real-time space weather drivers in WAM Improving gravity wave parameterization (adding non-orographic gravity waves) Coupling the neutral atmosphere to the ionosphere (WAM to the IPE ionosphere model) Developing DA systems for the upper atmosphere and ionosphere  What are you top challenges to evolving the system(s) to meet stakeholder requirements? Monumental effort to develop, validate, and “operationalize” WAM and IPE Ensuring that space weather modeling requirements are included in modeling system upgrades. Horizontal diffusion, deep atmosphere, T>2000K, U>1000m/s, Thermodynamics eq. solved for enthalpy, tracers, etc…  Potential opportunities for simplification going forward Collaboration in the middle atmosphere (extending GFS and GDAS to 100 km) Leveraging model improvements such as NGGPS

Backup Slides 5

6 Top 3 Things You Need From the UMAC 1.#1….. 2.#2…… 3.#3……

Thermosphere Mesosphere Global Forecast Systems Model 0 – 60 km Whole Atmosphere Model (Neutral Atmosphere) 0 – 600 km Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics Model Model Development in the Thermosphere-Ionosphere: Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere (IDEA) Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM = Extended GFS) Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (IPE) Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere (IDEA = WAM+IPE) Whole Atmosphere Model Stratosphere Troposphere WAM follows a latitude longitude pressure grid system IPE grid follows the magnetic field lines of Earth 2015 February 10 7 Space Weather Drivers Solar EUV/X-ray Irradiance Geomagnetic Storms

2009 Sudden Strat. Warm Event: WAM vs GFS Forecast WAM Predicts Strat-Warm 2 Days Before GFS WAM and GFS forecast from Jan 13, 2009 of T and 10 hPa vs GDAS analysis. WAM and GFS forecast from Jan 15, 2009 of T and 10 hPa vs GDAS analysis. The full impact of WAM on tropospheric forecasts needs to be evaluated

p top = 1.5×10 -7 Pa (O exobase) T62L150 (~ 2   2 , ~ 0 – 600 km) Free runs or A/F cycle (WDAS) Composition dependent R & C p Height dependent g(z) Physics Horizontal & vertical mixing (no “sponge”) Radiative heating: EUV, UV, & non-LTE IR Major neutrals (O, O 2, N 2 ) WAM = Extended GFS 9 GFS top 99.97% of mass Desirable Extend higher, to He exobase More global tracers

1.3D physics (not in vertical columns): horizontal diffusion 2.Thermodynamics equation solved for enthalpy 3.Deep atmosphere g(z) r = r E + z 4.Tracers 5.Tolerance: T ≥ 2000 K and U ≥ 1000 m/s WAM NGGPS requirements 10 In WAM NGGPS Reqs