PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy PREFER WP Prescribed Fire Map Methodology to Map the Areas Suitable for the Prescribed Burning Lorenzo Fusilli (DIAEE)

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Project WP status This presentation is focused on the description of a methodology for the identification of the areas most suitable for the application of the Prescribed Burning (PB) practice PB represents the controlled application of fire to vegetation under specific environmental conditions to attain planned resource management objectives. PB is one of the most versatile and cost effective land management tools primarily used to reduce dangerous fuel accumulations, thus providing increased protection to people, homes and forest. Let’s have a short overview of the PB practice

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy The use of PB is a well established practice in US whereas in Europe it is still a disputed matter and generally not permitted. However, important changes have taken place for PB in the last years, especially in those countries which were pioneers in its introduction Although the benefits of the PB are clear, there are also notable concerns. The main constraints for PB introduction and implementation are  fire bans  complex land structure  lack of professional experience  negative public perception Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy The most important EU project on the analysis of the PB has been Fire Paradox. The overall objective was the creation of the scientific and technical background towards integrated fire management practices and policies in Europe. In the framework of FP a software application has been developed for the management of PB  PB Mapper The software PB Mapper provides two importat functions: Fast location of potential prescribed burning treatments in a geographic area, using multiple criteria as input Assessment of the effectiveness of the proposed PB treatments on the reduction of Fire hazard (in terms of Fire Line Intensity) Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy However the main limitation of PB Mapper is the Time factor, the lack of information on the temporal window most convenient to perform the PB This is the main improvement that the present WP intends to make in the practice of the wild fire prevention based on the prescribed fires. shrubland PB area Pinewood This WP aims at developing a dynamic product, easily updatable, to predict the right time and the secure way to employ the PB in the Areas of Interest Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Criteria Vegetation / fuel model Topography Roads Settlements… Vegetation / Fuel model Map of potential PB treatments Fireline intensity map before PB treatments Fireline intensity map after PB treatments Evaluation of proposed PB treatments The activity of this WP is focused on the enhancement of some modules respect to PB Mapper software developped by Fire Paradox (red arrows) Schematic representatio n of PB Mapper functions (by GMV) Actual status of this WP Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy The satellite data will have a key role. Input Data Static Parameters Topography Roads Settlements Land use/cover Seasonal Risk Map Dynamic Parameters Weather conditions Vegetation conditions (NDVI, fuel maps) Daily Fire Hazard Map Enhanced Maps of the potential PB treatments A new algorithm will be developed to compute periodic maps to know in which days and in which areas the prescribed fire practice is applicable Output by DIAEE by other partners The actual status of this WP New intermediate products will be created and used as input together with other PREFER products. Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy The methodology takes into account some topographic and environmental characteristics related to the burned areas. The purpose is to map the areas most susceptible to fires and on which to apply the PB practice. This methodology has been tested on the Sardinia AOI, on a time range of eight years, corresponding to the fire seasons from 2005 to The geoportal of the Sardinia Region makes available online the burned areas vector layers, collected by the Regional Forestry Corps (CFVA): Description of the methodology Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy The parameters taken into account are: Topographic parameters: Slope Aspect Elevation DEM Environmental Parameters: Fuel Climate The combination of all these classes provides a kind of landscape classification. Each new class represents a distinctive combination of the parameters considered, defined as: Homogeneous Territorial Classes (HTC). Slope Aspect HTC 5° 25° 270° N 90° N graphic example to calculate the HTC, in the case of only two parameters. A B C D Each parameter has been discretized in order to obtain a limited number of exclusive classes Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Others Data taken into account are: Roads Natural Parks and protected areas Urban Areas Agricultural Areas To create protection buffer areas around vulnerable areas in wich to apply the PB Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Topographic parameters Elevation, Slope and Aspect has been derived by using a DEM (available online having spatial resolution of 10 m. The ELEVATION layer has been divided into 4 ranges or classes Elevation < 100 m Class m < Elevation < 500 m Class m < Elevation < 1000 m Class 3 Elevation > 1000 m Class 4 Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Topographic parameters The Slope layer has been divided into 3 ranges or classes Slope < 5° Class 1 5° < Slope < 25° Class 2 > Slope > 25° Class 3 Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Topographic parameters The Aspect layer has been divided into 5 ranges or classes Aspect = ZenithClass 0 -45° < Aspect < 45° (Nord) Class 1 45° < Aspect < 135° (Est) Class 2 < 135° < Aspect < 225° (Sud)Class 3 225° < Aspect < 315° (West)Class 4 Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Environmental parameters Fuel At this stage of the WP, we have used the Fuel map produced by JRC. However, in the final version of the WP the fuel map produced by GMV will be used. Only 8 of the 24 fuel models are present In the AOI, in particular: JRC Fuel Model Name NFDR Fuel model 1 Grassland vegetated by annual grasses and forbs A 6Sclerophylous oakwood vegetationF 12 Grassland vegetated by perennial grasses L 15 Broadleaved forests of Quercus ilex and suber O 18Broadleaved forestR 19Sparsely vegetated areasS 20Transitional Woodland shrubT 24Non forest classX Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Environmental parameters Climate The Sardinia is characterized by a mediterranean climate. Three climatic zone are present in the this AOI: Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy ElevationSlopeAspectFuelClimate < 100 m< 5°Zenith Grassland vegetated by annual grasses and forbs Lauretum hot subzone 100 – 500 m5°- 25°NorthSclerophylous oakwood vegetation Lauretum intermediate subzone 500 – 1000 m> 25°East Grassland vegetated by perennial grasses Lauretum cold subzone > 1000 mSouth Broadleaved forests of Quercus ilex and suber WestBroadleaved forest Sparsely vegetated areas Transitional Woodland shrub Non forest class 4 classes3 classes5 classes8 classes3 classes In summary, for this preliminary analysis we have got: Now, it si possible organize the cells into HTC. Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy The theoretical maximum number of HTC is equal to the combination of the classes. This number corresponds to the product: 4 x 3 x 5 x 8 x 3 = 1440 HTC (theoretical value) In this case study the number of the HTC is 706. Each HTC represents a particular “information/combination” of the five parameters considered (Elevation, Slope, Aspect, etc.) Procedure to calculate the HTC Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy The ten most abundant HTC and related parameters CodeArea (Ha) ElevationSlopeAspectFuelClimate ,37 E1 < 100 S1 < 5°Est24 – No Forest1 - Lauretum hot SZ ,31 E1 < 100 S1 < 5°Sud24 – No Forest1 - Lauretum hot SZ ,17 E1 < 100 S1 < 5°West24 – No Forest1 - Lauretum hot SZ ,97 E1 < 100 S1 < 5°Nord24 – No Forest1 - Lauretum hot SZ , < E2 < 5005 < S2 < 25°West 6 – Sclerophylous oakwood veget.2 - Lauretum interm. SZ , < E2 < 5005 < S2 < 25°Sud6 – Sclerophylous oakwood veget.2 - Lauretum interm. SZ , < E2 < 5005 < S2 < 25°Est6 – Sclerophylous oakwood veget.2 - Lauretum interm. SZ ,8 100 < E2 < 5005 < S2 < 25°Nord6 – Sclerophylous oakwood veget.2 - Lauretum interm. SZ ,2100 < E2 < 500 S3 > 25Sud6 – Sclerophylous oakwood veget.2 - Lauretum interm. SZ

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Where Cb ik : burned area of the k i-th fire within the HTC i-th (Ha) T : time range (8 years) N i : number of fires in the time range T in the type i-th C i tot : area of the HTC i-th 0 FPP Values 1.6 LowHigh At this point, it is possible to obtain the Fire Propagation Probability (FPP) defined as: FPP i Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Top ten of the FPP values related to HTC parameters FPPHTC CodeElevationSlopeAspectFuelClimate 1, < E2 < 500 S3 > 25Sud24 – No Forest1 - Lauretum hot SZ 1, < E2 < 500 S3 > 25West24 – No Forest1 - Lauretum hot SZ 1, < E2 < 500 S3 > 25Nord24 – No Forest1 - Lauretum hot SZ 0,25222 E1 < 100 S3 > 25Est24 – No Forest1 - Lauretum hot SZ 0, < E2 < 500 S1 < 5°Zenith24 – No Forest1 - Lauretum hot SZ 0,14126E1 < 100 S1 < 5°Zenith18 – Broadleaved forest1 - Lauretum hot SZ 0, < E2 < 500 S2 > 25°Nord20 – Transitional Woodland shrubs1 - Lauretum hot SZ 0, < E2 < 5005 < S2 < 25°Sud 12 – Grassland vegetated by perennial grasses 3 - Lauretum cold SZ 0,059E1 < 1005 < S2 < 25°West 1 – Grassland vegetated by annual grasses and forbs 1 - Lauretum hot SZ The FPP values are reclassified in 5 classes of “Geospatial Hazard” FPP valuesClassHazardPB application > 0.35Very HighYes 0.05 – 0.34HighYes 0.05 – ModerateYes – LowNo Very LowNo 0No class Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Map of the Fire Propagation Probability Map of the Geospatial Hazard Mask of the fuel model 24 “No Forest” Brief summary of the last 3 steps Map of the Homogenous Territorial Classes FPP valuesClassHazardPB application > 0.35Very HighYes 0.05 – 0.34HighYes 0.05 – ModerateYes – LowNo Very LowNo 0No class FPP i FPP valuesClassHazardPB application > 0.35Very HighYes 0.05 – 0.34HighYes 0.05 – ModerateYes – LowNo Very LowNo 0No class White color indicate the Fuel Model 24 (JRC): No forest Class (Agricultural areas, Urban areas etc.) Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Now we have to create a protection buffer zones around the vulnerable areas, by using the vector layers of the Urban Areas, Agricultural Areas, Woodland, Parks and Protected areas, Roads LayerBuffer Natural Parks/Protected areas100 m Woods and shurblands150 m Urban Areas150 m Agricultural Areas100 m Main Roads25 m Urban Areas Agricultural areas Woods and shrublands Parks and Protected areas Main Roads Buffer zones Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Geospatial Hazard Buffer zones Prescribed Fires Map 1 Grassland vegetated by annual grasses and forbs 6Sclerophylous oakwood vegetation 12Grassland vegetated by perennial grasses 15Broadleaved forests of Quercus ilex and suber 18Broadleaved forest 19Sparsely vegetated areas 20Transitional Woodland shrub 24Non forest class The intersection between the Buffer zones and the classes 5, 4, 3 of the Geospatial Hazard provides the areas devoted to the PB practice Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Future developments Update the methodology by implementig the final version of the Fuel Maps provided by GMV Then Analyze the dinamic parameters  Weather conditions  Vegetation conditions (NDVI, fuel maps)  Daily Fire Hazard Map  Assessment of the Fire Line Intensity (FLI) and of the optimal temporal window for the PB treatments. Project WP status

PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy …of course any suggestion to modify/improve this methodology is welcome Thanks for your attention!