European Socio-Economic Classification Validation Conference Portuguese Statistical Office Lisbon, January 2006

Unemployment risks in four European countries: an attempt of testing the construct validity of the ESeC scheme Antonio Schizzerotto, Roberta Barone & Laura Arosio University of Milano Bicocca University of Milano BicoccaItaly

Aims of the study Testing the construct validity of the ESeC classification, by means of a comparative analysis aimed at detecting the variations across four EU-15 countries in the risks of unemployment experienced by incumbents of occupations belonging to different ESeC classes. Checking whether in the case of Italy different versions of Isco88.com- i.e. 2, 3 and 4 digit versions- affect the estimated disparities between ESeC classes in the risk of unemployment

Four EU countries Denmark, as a representative of countries where the State playes an important role in the functioning of the whole society Germany and Italy, as representatives of countries where family has a crucial position in the institutional arrangements of the society United Kingdom, as a representative of countries that attribute great importance to the market in the workings of the society

Three hypotheses to be tested ESeC is a valid social scheme The disparities between ESeC classes in the risk of unemployment should follow the same general pattern between countries that posses a market economy Despite this basic similarity, as a consequence of different institutional arrangements and labour market regulations across countries, one should observe between countries dissimilarities in unemployment risks displayed by each ESeC class.

Data sources Waves from 1994 to 2001 of the European Community Households Panel (ECHP) Waves 1997, 1999 and 2001 of Ilfi (Italian Households Longitudinal Study)

Methods Poisson regression of unemployment incident rates ratios Survivor functions in employment by ESeC classes

ESeC classes and risks of unemployment

ESeC ClassesCountry DKDEUKIT 1: Higher salariat occupations 0,16***0,31***0,23***0,15*** 2: Lower salariat occupations0,31***0,28***0,26***0,16*** 3: Intermediate occupations0,74***0,48***0,45***0,21*** 4: Self employed and small employers0,34***0,20***0,32***0,28*** 5: Self employed and small employers in agriculture0,01***0,04***0,26***0,09*** 6: Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations0,52***0,81***0,23***0,29*** 7: Lower services, sales and clerical occupations0,97***0,58***0,70***0,52*** 8: Lower technical occupations0,77***0,70***0,75***0,63*** 9: Routine occupations (a)1,00 (a) Reference category; *** p <0,01;** p <0,05; * p <0,1 Poisson Regression of Unemployment Incidence Rate Ratios by ESeC Classes and Country in the period

ESec ClassesCountry DKDEUKIT 1: Higher salariat occupations : Lower salariat occupations : Intermediate occupations : Self employed and small employers : Self employed and small employers in agriculture : Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations : Lower services, sales and clerical occupations : Lower technical occupations : Routine occupations Average incidence rates (%) of unemployment (in bold letters) and 95% confidence intervals by ESeC classes and countries in the period

Poisson regression of unemployment incidence rate ratios by ESeC classes and country controlling for gender, age, level of education and marital status. ECHP waves 1-7 CovariatesCountry DKDEUKIT ESec classes 1: Higher salariat occupations0.19*** 0,40***0.30***0.26*** 2: Lower salariat occupations0.31*** 0,33***0.32***0.25*** 3: Intermediate occupations0.66*** 0,54***0.53***0.28*** 4: Self employed and small employers0.40*** 0,24***0.39***0.36*** 5: Self employed and small employers in agriculture0.10*** 0,04***0.30***0.13*** 6: Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations0.57*** 1,000.24***0.34*** 7: Lower services. sales and clerical occupations0.82*** 0,66***0.77***0.54*** 8: Lower technical occupations0.92 0,91***0.68***0.58*** 9: Routine occupations (a) 1.001, Gender Men0.58*** 0,74***1.46***0.88*** Women (a)1.00 1, Age0.99* 0,95***0.93*** Age squared1.00* 1,00***1.00*** Education Tertiary0.90** 0,82***0.81***0.50*** Higher secondary0.87*** 0,90***0.85***0.71*** Below higher secondary (a)1.00 1, Civil status Married0.69*** 0,77***0.53***0.61*** Separated or divorced0.88** 1,050.94**0.50*** Unmarried (a)1.00 1, Pseudo R squared (a) Reference category

Average incidence rates (%) of unemployment (in bold letters) and 95% confidence intervals by ESeC classes and countries in the period Estimates from multivariate Poisson regression model controlling for gender, age, education and civil status. ESec ClassesCountry DKDEUKIT 1: Higher salariat occupations : Lower salariat occupations : Intermediate occupations : Self employed and small employers : Self employed and small employers in agriculture : Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations : Lower services. sales and clerical occupations : Lower technical occupations : Routine occupations

ESeC classes and the duration of employment episodes

Log-rank test of expected and observed events of dismissal by ESeC classes and country and values of χ2 test. ESeC ClassesCountry DKDEUKIT observedexpectedobservedexpectedobservedexpectedobservedexpected 1: Higher salariat occupations : Lower salariat occupations : Intermediate occupations : Self employed and small employers : Self employed and small employers in agriculture : Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations : Lower services, sales and clerical occupations : Lower technical occupations : Routine occupations (a) χ 2, 8 d.f

The validity of ESeC class scheme and Isco 88 com versions according to Ilfi data

ESeC classes size (in percentages) by Isco 88 com version. Italy, 2001 (current occupation) ESeC ClassesIsco version Four digitsThree digitsTwo digits 1: Higher salariat occupations : Lower salariat occupations : Intermediate occupations : Self employed and small employers : Self employed and small employers in agriculture : Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations : Lower services, sales and clerical occupations : Lower technical occupations : Routine occupations Total100 N 6058

ESeC classes size (in percentages) by Isco 88 com version. Working episodes, Italy ESeC ClassesIsco version Four digitsThree digitsTwo digits 1: Higher salariat occupations : Lower salariat occupations : Intermediate occupations : Self employed and small employers : Self employed and small employers in agriculture : Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations : Lower services, sales and clerical occupations : Lower technical occupations : Routine occupations Total 100 N 21404

Poisson regression of unemployment incidence rate ratios by Isco 88 com version. Italy ESeC ClassesIsco version Four digitsThree digitsTwo digits 1: Higher salariat occupations0.23***0.19***0.22*** 2: Lower salariat occupations0.24***0.27***0.31*** 3: Intermediate occupations0.69**0.66***0.78* 4: Self employed and small employers0.53***0.49***0.50*** 5: Self employed and small employers in agriculture0.09***0.08***0.09*** 6: Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations0.47**0.50**0.35*** 7: Lower services, sales and clerical occupations : Lower technical occupations **0.88 9: Routine occupations (a)1.00 (a) Reference category; *** p <0,01;** p <0,05; * p <0,1

Average unemployment incidence rates (%) by Isco 88 com version. Italy ESeC ClassesIsco version Four digitsThree digitsTwo digits 1: Higher salariat occupations : Lower salariat occupations : Intermediate occupations : Self employed and small employers : Self employed and small employers in agriculture : Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations : Lower services, sales and clerical occupations : Lower technical occupations : Routine occupations

Employment relations and level of social desirability of ESeC classes according to ILFI data

ESeC classes by type of contract, Italy, ESeC classes Type of contract Permanent contract, full-time Permanent contract, part-time Fixed term contract, full-time Fixed term contract, part-time No contract N. 1 Higher salariat occupations Lower salariat occupations ,552 3 Intermediate occupations (higher grade white collars workers) ,076 6 Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations (higher grade blue collar workers) Lower services, sales and clerical occupations (lower grade white collar workers) ,743 8 Lower technical occupations (Skilled workers) ,042 9 Routine occupations (Semi- and non-skilled workers) ,314 Total N.10, , ,82916,823

Employment status of ESeC classes 1 and 2, Italy, ESeC classesStatus in employmentTotal EmployeesSelf-employed 1 Higher salariat occupations Lower salariat occupations N.2, ,137

Scale’s score by ESeC classes, Italy, ESeC classesMean scoreMedian score 1 Higher salariat occupations Lower salariat occupations Intermediate occupations (higher grade white collars workers) Self employed and small employer occupations (non-professional etc agriculture etc) Self employed and small employer occupations in agriculture etc Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations (higher grade blue collar workers) Lower services, sales and clerical occupations (lower grade white collar workers) Lower technical occupations (Skilled workers) Routine occupations (Semi- and un-skilled workers)