MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook Prepared for NCSHA Annual Conference September 29, 2015 Mike Fratantoni Chief Economist MBA.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Economic Update by Doug Duncan Chief Economist Fannie Mae American Land Title Association October 17, 2008 Kaua’i, Hawaii.

Advertisements

Measuring the US Economy Economic Indicators. Understanding the Lingo Annualized Rates Example: GDP Q3 (Final) = $11,814.9B (5.5%) Q2: GDP = $2,

Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc. The U.S. Economic Outlook: How Much Fallout from The Housing Meltdown? Nariman Behravesh Chief Economist NAHB April.

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE: 2015 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK LAWRENCE YUN, PhD Chief Economist, Sr. VP National Association of REALTORS ® DONALD E. HUFFNER Managing.

Real Estate Trends and Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation at Associated Taxpayers of Idaho Boise,

Economic Assessment William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Not So Silent Partners: Libraries and Local Economic.

Housing Market Outlook Silicon Valley Association of REALTORS® April 1, 2008 Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Deputy Chief Economist California Association of.

Housing Market Trends & Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation at NAR Annual Conference in San Diego.

Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Calumet Area Industrial Commission Chicago, IL April.

Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Saint Xavier University Graham School of Management.

Credit Union Association of the Dakotas 2012 Annual Summit June 28, 2012 The Economy and Credit Union Operations Mike Schenk Vice President, Economics.

Virginia Housing Development Authority Virginia Housing Market Overview Virginia Association of Realtors October 2, 2010.

Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook for 2011 NC-CCIM Commercial Real Estate Panel Charlotte, NC March 30, 2011 Frank E. Nothaft Chief Economist.

Subprime Lending in Tennessee Hulya Arik, Ph.D. Research Coordinator July 19, 2007 Graphic Design by Paul Henkel, A.B.D. Asst. Director for Research, Planning.

Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Spring Manufacturers Institute Orlando, FL April.

The Washington DC Housing Market: Trends and Outlook Housing Association of Non-Profit Developers December 11, 2014 Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD Vice President.

Real Estate and Economic Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation at CRE Finance Council Annual Conference.

815 Western Avenue, Suite 400 Seattle, WA Economic & Real Estate Trends and Outlook Presented to Windermere Real Estate August 5 th,

CAR Commercial Forum Meeting – September 2013 (Chicago Metro) Robert Carrillo September2013.

Presentation at Mid-Fairfield Association of REALTORS® Norwalk, CT April 28, 2008 Presentation at Mid-Fairfield Association of REALTORS® Norwalk, CT April.

Economic Headwinds and Policy Concerns for New Home Construction Robert Dietz, Ph.D. Vice President Tax and Market Analysis NAHB Economics December 18,

Virginia Housing Development Authority Review of Virginia Market Conditions and Foreclosure Trends What’s Ahead for Housing? A Symposium on Federal Housing.

Presentation at NAR Leadership Summit Chicago, IL August 17, 2007 Presentation at NAR Leadership Summit Chicago, IL August 17, 2007 Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.

Economic and Housing Market Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation at NAR’s Midyear Economic Issues.

Real Estate Market Overview Stan Humphries, Chief Economist.

©2011 PRESIDENT AND FELLOWS OF HARVARD COLLEGE A CHALLENGING AND TURBULENT TIME NeighborWorks Homeownership Symposium Eric Belsky February

The Economy and External Environment 10th Annual Georgia Idea Institute August 19, 2015 Bill Hampel, Chief Policy Officer Credit Union National Association.

ECONOMIC AND HOUSING OUTLOOK David Crowe Chief Economist Blue Ridge Home Builders Association February 27, 2014.

Real Estate Trends and Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation at Cedar Rapids Association of REALTORS®

Global Research and Consulting Econometric Advisors CBRE Econometric Advisors Client Conference 2012 October 2, 2012 Global Research and Consulting Econometric.

NESTOA September 16, 2011 Scott Pattison Executive Director National Association of State Budget Officers 444 North Capitol Street, NW, Suite 642 Washington,

1 The Regional Economic Outlook Rae D. Rosen Senior Economist and Assistant Vice - President Federal Reserve Bank of New York January 5, 2006.

State Fiscal Outlook: Minnesota and the Nation ONE MINNESOTA January 25, 2012 Scott Pattison Executive Director National Association of State Budget Officers.

© 2012 Cengage Learning. Residential Mortgage Lending: Principles and Practices, 6e Chapter 3 Role of Residential Mortgage Lending in the Economy.

Economic and Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist National Association of REALTORS®

Housing and Economic Outlook National Association of Local Housing Finance Agencies April 26, 2012 David Crowe Chief Economist.

Using Data to Track Local Housing Markets APDU Annual Conference Washington, DC September 24, 2008 Frank E. Nothaft Chief Economist.

Is There Trouble With The Bubble? Presented by: Gregory H. Leisch, CRE November 14, 2005.

THE UTAH ECONOMY Presentation by James Wood Bureau of Economic and Business Research University of Utah November 2011.

Ok, That’s Over. What’s Next?! Stanley F. Duobinis, Ph.D. Crystal Ball Economics, Inc. Stanley F. Duobinis, Ph.D. Crystal Ball Economics, Inc.

Is another HOUSING about to take place?. My view is that we are a long way from another house price bubble. Home buyers, investors, lenders and regulators.

Economic Outlook for 2011 and 2012 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Electronics Representatives Association.

David H. Stevens President and Chief Executive Officer Mortgage Bankers Association What’s the New Normal?

Economic and Housing Market Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation at 2012 Resort and Second-Home Symposium.

Higher Education in a Troubled Economy: How New England’s Colleges and Universities Can Survive the Downturn and Prepare to Thrive New England Board of.

Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS ® Presentation at NAR Annual Meetings.

1 Copyright  2000 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved The US Economic Outlook: How Long Can the Good Times Roll? TVB New York September.

Presentation at NAR Annual Conference and Expo Orlando, FL November 7, 2008 Presentation at NAR Annual Conference and Expo Orlando, FL November 7, 2008.

Economic Outlook in Uncertain Times Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Presentation to IREM Chapter 77 In Reston, VA.

Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist National Association of REALTORS ® May 14, 2015 Washington, D.C.

The Housing Market ‘Reset’ and its Implications for Housing Policy Alan Mallach Non-resident Senior Fellow The Brookings Institution.

Real Estate Market Trends & Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation to Greater Boston Associations.

The Economic Outlook Sam Kahan, Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago: Detroit Branch Wisconsin Bankers Association Madison,

Economic and Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS® Presentation at Region 11 REALTORS® Conference.

USA REAL ESTATE Dana Conway, Realtor Adv. Communications Skills.

Economic and Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS® Presentation at Arkansas REALTORS® Association.

Economic and Housing Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS® Presentation at Fayetteville Association of REALTORS®

Economic Overview Washington State Examiner School

John Tuccillo Issues in Property Management: The Economic and Market Environment for Rental Housing John Tuccillo

MBA Economic and Commercial Real Estate Finance Outlook

Economic & Commercial Real Estate Finance Outlook

Economic and Housing Outlook

Ed Sullivan Group VP, Chief Economist

Economic and Housing Market

The Economy and Iowa Credit Unions

Economic Assessment The Transformer Association William Strauss

Mortgage Bankers Association

MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook Prepared for MBA’s Annual National Convention October 25, 2016 Presented by Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Marina.

Housing Supply and Home Prices

Presentation transcript:

MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook Prepared for NCSHA Annual Conference September 29, 2015 Mike Fratantoni Chief Economist MBA

MBA Economic Outlook Source: MBA Forecast – September 2015

Job Growth Showing Sustained Strength Source: BLS

More Wage Growth in the Works? Source: BLS

But Compensation Growth Not Picking Up Yet Source: BLS

Difference in Headline vs Core Inflation

Rates Expected to Increase Source: BEA, MBA Forecast

Refinance Activity Slowing Down Source: MBA Weekly Applications Survey

Home Sales and Interest Rates Source: Census, Federal Reserve, MBA, NAR

Three Tectonic Trends Affecting U.S. Housing Markets -Demographics -Long-term Societal Trends -Hang-over from the Great Recession

Source: Census Household Growth Predominantly Renters

More Young and Old, Fewer Middle-Aged Source: Census

Growing Older Sources: Census and MBA

HOUSEHOLD DEMAND: Changing Demographics and Economy Plus Trends Source: Census and MBA

HOMEOWNERSHIP DEMAND I : The Status Quo Source: Census and MBA

HOMEOWNERSHIP DEMAND II : Reversion to Long Run Average Homeownership Rates Source: Census and MBA

Large but Falling Multifamily Shares Source: Census and MBA

Home Prices Within Two Percent of 2007 Peak Source: FHFA

Turnover Returning to Early 2000 Rates Source: NAR, Census, MBA

Modest Moves in Credit Availability Source: Mortgage Bankers Association; Powered by AllRegs Market Clarity

Credit Availability In Historical Context Source: ALLREGS, MBA 3/2011 through present (rescaled)

Differentiated Purchase Application Market Source: MBA Monthly Profile of Mortgage Activity Differentiated Growth in Purchase Market

Estimated Originations 1990 to 2016 Source: MBA Forecast – September 2015

Performance Continues To Improve in Q Source: MBA National Delinquency Survey

Loans in Foreclosure Declining Source: MBA National Delinquency Survey

Foreclosure Starts Back to Pre-Recession Level Source: MBA National Delinquency Survey

Commercial/Multifamily Markets

Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding ($ millions) Source: MBA Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding

Contact Information & MBA Resources Mortgage Bankers Association 1919 M Street NW, 5 th Floor Washington, DC MBA Research page: Research Institute for Housing America: MBA Newslink: Mike Fratantoni Chief Economist & Senior Vice President Research & Industry Technology