Tools for the Political Analysis of Policy Reform Initiatives Merilee S. Grindle Edward S. Mason Professor of International Development John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University May 2004

Actors Who are the actors? What are their interests? How much do they care about the outcome of the reform initiative? What resources do they have to influence the outcome? How much influence do they have over the outcome of the reform initiative?

Institutions What are the institutional/organizational contexts in which important decisions affecting the reform will take place? What are the formal and informal rules of the game that affect power relationships within these institutional/organizational contexts?

Process In order for the reform to be effectively carried out, what needs to be done at each phase of the policy process? –Getting the reform on the political agenda –Designing the reform –Gaining approval for the reform –Implementing the reform –Sustaining the reform

Strategy Given information on actors, institutional contexts, and process, what political and communication strategies are appropriate for promoting the reform?

Assessing Political Actors Relevant to Policy Actors in policy area Priority of policy area for actor Actors reasons for exerting influence in policy area Actors resources for influencing outcomes in policy area Degree of influence in policy area Actual and potential alliances among actors Minister of Finance Very High This is a core area of her ministrys responsibility Technocrat with commitments to fiscal discipline Has ambitions to work in IMF Comply with conditionalities Close to president; lead position in cabinet Appointments to ministry Ministrys technical capacity Very High Without her support, reform will not happen International donors. Governor of Central Bank (?) Business leaders Members of Parliament Power to amend Stall in committee Vote against Use access to media to discredit government Need to ensure votes in upcoming elections Government party somewhat supportive Opposition seeks to discredit government High Critically affects their ability to provide benefits to their constituencies Very High Without approval, president will have to use unpopular decree powers President (her party) Governors Mayors Spending ministries

Circle of Influence Graphic Reform SupportOpposition Undecided Minister of Finance Parliament World Bank Think Tanks and the Academia Ministry of Education President Ministry of Public Works Mayors The Daily Monitor

Institutional Contexts for Policy Reform Organizational /inter- organizational arena What actors have access to this institutional context? What rules of the game within the institutional context are particularly relevant to your policy reform? What resources of power/influence are relevant in this institutional context? How important is this institutional context to the outcome of your policy reform? The Cabinet President Ministers Pressure groups or actors through ministers and the government secretariat. Formal rules and procedures that regulate intra-government interactions. Informal customs and relations between government officials. Influence on president Degree of consensus on the reform Use of ties to party and use of appointment powers Access to media Very important Strong cabinet support sends important message to politicians Very important President wishes to avoid using decree power Parliament MPs, political parties, local pressure groups, the parliamentary secretariat. Parliamentary procedures for managing legislation. Importance of committee chairs Party loyalty Vote trading Votes Investigations, inquiries, and public hearings Access to media

Policy Process Matrix Process PhaseMobilizing Political Support/ Managing Opposition Technical, Legal, and Regulatory Issues Budgetary Issues Organizational Management Issues Training and Other Capacity Building Issues Getting the reform on the Political agenda Designing the reform Gaining approval for the reform Implementing the reform Sustaining long-term reform Circulate tech. rpt. to cabinet, ministries Press conference to stress commitment to fiscal control Tech team to prepare reports Legal consultant to begin drafting legislation Allocate budget from MoF for team, consul. Develop plan for tech. asst. from donors Appoint a technical team from MoF, and influential academics Consultant to train MoF personnel in media relations Tech. team to produce draft Legal consultant to produce draft Allocate funds for design team and consultant Follow up on donor technical assistance Appoint new vice-minister for budgetary management Develop new organizational matrix for better coordination Design training modules for ministerial budget officers, local officials Discuss implications with individual ministry leadership Convene mayors, governors for consultations

Political and Communication Strategy What is the political game plan for moving ahead? What is the communication strategy? –What is the general message? –What audiences need to hear this message? –Does the general message need to be tailored to distinct audiences? –How should different audiences be reached?