Statistics at Forest Research Geoff Morgan

Forestry Commission Formed in 1919 as a response to the shortage of timber caused by the war. Manages about 1m hectares of woodland (Forest Enterprise) Awards grants and gives out licences (conservancies)

Forest Research Research agency of the Forestry Commission Two main sites –Alice Holt, near Farnham –Northern Research Station, near Edinburgh –about 12 field stations –280 staff

FR Divisions Tree Health (Pathology and Entomology) Ecology Forest Management Environmental and Human Sciences Biometrics, Surveys and Statistics

Some key problems Plant diseases (e.g., Phytophthora ramorum) Insect pests (e.g., Hylobius) Natural regeneration/direct seeding Grey squirrels and deer Monitoring and surveying Landscape ecology Bio-diversity Climate change

Pine Weevil Hylobius abietis

Adult females lay eggs in bark of stumps Adults emerge 1-2 years later Attack newly planted trees Can weevil be controlled without using pesticides? The problem

Hylobius experiments Size of eggs Shallow/deep feeding Time to flight How to estimate weevil numbers

Seedling survival Is natural regeneration of Corsican Pine possible? Are sufficient viable seeds produced? What conditions lead to successful germination? Do the seedlings survive?

Seed Predation by mice

The experiments Do mice have preference for different seed types? Do different conditions discourage predation? Use of GLM/GLMMs More general models via MCMC approach

Growth of young trees Experiments/studies measure tree height and diameter at regular intervals Examining the effects of –weeding treatments –vegetation –pruning Use of end point analysis repeated measures or growthcurves?

Some statistical problems How many observations? Plot sizes - how many trees is optimal? Blocks - shapes and sizes Random effects/error strata Multivariate approaches

Working with scientists An evolutionary relationship Software gets easier –Excel –GenStat Statistics gets harder Servant to team member Quality Assurance

In summary Diverse Frustrating Challenging All in a wonderful setting!