Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling Review of the Gothenburg Protocol UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC.

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Presentation transcript:

Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling Review of the Gothenburg Protocol UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE

What has changed?  New Eulerian dispersion model  Ecosystem dependent deposition rates  Sensitivity of ecosystems, ozone flux approach  Health effects of particles and ozone  Emission estimates  New (national) projections, time horizon 2020  Effects of existing control options (cycle bypassing)  Increased potential of cost-effective measures due to linkages with climate policy, non-technical local measures and measures for ships

Emissions of SO 2, NO x, NH 3 and VOC declined Current policy efforts are no-regret, but… The Gothenburg Protocol is not sufficient to meet the original ambitions regarding the long term protection of ecosystems and health Preliminary conclusion TFIAM32

73 65 % ecosystem specific dep. Updated emissions & meteo variability grid average deposition Unified Model & 2004 CLs critical loads critical loads Lagrangian Model EU25EuropeEU25Europe 2010 GP2000 Unprotected Ecosystem-area (nitrogen) - % Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

Factors changing ecosystem risk estimates Goth Protocol Updated CL 50 * 50 km Eulerian modelEcosyst. spec. dep. Exceedance of CL nut in 2010

Trends in unprotected ecosystem area (%) % GP Acidification EU EMEP Eutrophication EU EMEP Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

GP knowledge: days with ozone above 60 ppb  Problem for Northwestern & central Europe

Current knowledge: SOMO35 [ppb.days]  problem in Southern Europe Sum Of Mean Ozone values over 35 ppb in rural areas

Effect of hemispheric ozone increases the challenge Meteorologisk Institutt met.no No increaseExpected increase

Increasing importance of ship emissions Contribution of SOx from shipping to deposition of S Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

Emission factors cars higher than expected

ARE THERE MORE SCIENTIFIC CHANGES IN PIPELINE?

With CLE emissions significantly decrease, with the exception of NH 3 and CO 2 [EU25, Primes projection]

Remaining problem areas in 2020 Eutrophication remains wide scale problem Forests – acid dep Semi-natural – acid depFreshwater – acid depHealth - PM Health+vegetation - ozoneVegetation – N dep

Distance to Target NO x Meteorologisk Institutt met.no Preliminary data !

To do list  Improve & update national emissions projections Non EU-countries What control measures are envisaged and when? (TFEIP)  Write TFIAM background document to the official review report Same structure, including figures & 4 additional items : Add para. on policy development in EU to TFIAM-document Describe the quality of models used based on reviews Explore new knowledge on damage to materials Discuss costs and benefits of Gothenburg Protocol ?

Preparations for revision of the Protocol  Modelling particulate matter  Local air pollution modelling (TFMM)  Update MFR, including emerging technologies & non- technical measures  Inclusion of GHG abatement measures  GAINS  Options for target setting & robustness of strategies