Detecting Parameter Redundancy in Integrated Population Models Diana Cole and Rachel McCrea National Centre for Statistical Ecology, School of Mathematics,

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Presentation transcript:

Detecting Parameter Redundancy in Integrated Population Models Diana Cole and Rachel McCrea National Centre for Statistical Ecology, School of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Kent

Lapwing Example

Symbolic Method for Detecting Parameter Redundancy

Parameter Redundancy in State-Space Models

Lapwing Example Integrated Model

Symbolic method for more complicated models

Lapwing Example Integrated Model with Age Dependence in Recovery Parameter

Common Guillemots Example

Common Guillemots Which Parameters Can be Estimated? CountNo ProductivityNo Yes Adult CRNo ALTNo Chick MRRYes No Count + ProductivityNo Yes Count + Adult CRNo ALTNo Count + Chick MRRYes No Productivity + Adult CRNo ALTYes Productivity + Chick MRRYes Adult CR + Chick MRRYes No Count + Productivity + Adult CRNo ALTYes Count + Productivity + Chick MRRYes Count + Adult CR + Chick MRRYes Productivity + Adult CR + Chick MRRYes ALT = All except last time point

References Besbeas, P., Freeman, S. N., Morgan, B. J. T. and Catchpole, E. A. (2002) Integrating Mark-Recapture-Recovery and Census Data to Estimate Animal Abundance and Demographic Parameters. Biometrics, 58, Catchpole, E. A. and Morgan, B. J. T. (1997) Detecting parameter redundancy. Biometrika, 84, Catchpole, E. A., Morgan, B. J. T and Freeman, S. N. (1998) Estimation in parameter redundant models. Biometrika, 85, Cole, D. J., Morgan, B. J. T. and Titterington, D. M. (2010) Determining the parametric structure of models. Mathematical Biosciences, 228, Cole, D. J. and McCrea, R. S. (2014) Parameter Redundancy in Discrete State-Space and Integrated Models. Invited Revision Biometrical Journal. Cole, D.J., Morgan, B.J.T., Catchpole, E.A. and Hubbard, B. A. (2012) Parameter Redundancy in Mark-Recovery Models. Biometrical Journal, 54, Lahoz-Monfort, J. J., Harris, M. P., Morgan, B. J. M., Freeman, S. N. and Wanless,.S (2014) Exploring the consequences of reducing survey effort for detecting individual and temporal variability in survival. Journal of Applied Ecology, 51, Reynolds, T. J., King, R., Harwood, J., Frederikesen, M., Harris, M. P. and Wanless, S. (2009) Integrated Data Analyses in the Presence of Emigration and Tag-loss. JABES, 14,