Options to Manage Electricity Demand and Increase Capacity in Santa Delano County Jon Cook Jeff Kessler Gabriel Lade Geoff Morrison Lin’s Lackeys

Project Overview Assess options available to Santa Delano Electric Company (SDEC) to handle load growth and increased EV penetration  Options Assessed  New transmission & distribution infrastructure  Demand response & time-varying pricing  Controlled EV charging  Battery storage Lin’s Lackeys

Benefits of EV Adoption  California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard  $42 million to $420 million in revenue  $20 to $200 per LCFS credit  External Benefits  $109 to $263 from reductions in criteria pollutants Lin’s Lackeys

Summary of Recommendations 1.Expand grid to accommodate population growth 2.$20 per month surcharge for L2 chargers 3.Install smart meters 4.Increase grid reliability w/ battery storage (450MWh) 1.Use dynamic pricing Lin’s Lackeys

Implementation Impacts 1.Rate change of $0.00/kWh to $0.002/kWh 1.Grid expansion costs: $66 million (if all EV load shifted) 2.EV Load shift program: $682 million in costs entirely offset by $20 per month surcharge 3.Install smart meters: $219 million in savings 4.Improved grid reliability: $124 million in savings 5.Dynamic pricing: $65 million in savings Lin’s Lackeys

Costs of Load Growth  Problem: Load growth from increasing population and increased EV penetration.  Solutions:  Install controlled level 2 chargers for EVs;  Dynamic pricing (CPP, TOU, or RTP). Lin’s Lackeys

Peak Load Growth Scenarios Lin’s Lackeys

EV Load Shift (Level 2) Lin’s Lackeys

Cost of Shifting Load  Free level 2 chargers that let utility control charge times  Costs recovered by $20/month surcharge on level 2 charger owners  Monthly surcharge mitigates equity concerns Lin’s Lackeys

Costs of Load Growth by 2030 Cost projections of grid expansion:  Due to population growth:  $66 million (Range: $ million)  Due to population + EV growth:  All Level 2: $692 million  Controlled Level 2: $66 million Lin’s Lackeys

Demand Response  Average load impact of to kW/household  Dynamic Pricing pilot suggests $7M in annual savings for SDEC  $65M  Conduct additional pilots  Compare impacts of RTP with TOU and CPP Lin’s Lackeys

Battery Storage and Smart Meters  Smart meters save money  Non-smart meters cost $430 million  Smart meters cost $211 million  450 MWh of battery storage offers increased reliability  Saves rate payers up to $392 million  Costs rate payers $268 million Lin’s Lackeys

Summary of Recommendations 1.Expand grid to accommodate population growth 2.$20 per month surcharge for L2 chargers 3.Install smart meters 4.Increase grid reliability w/ battery storage 1.Use dynamic pricing Lin’s Lackeys

Questions? Lin’s Lackeys

Summary of Costs Lin’s Lackeys

Determining EV Adoption Vehicle Purchase Model  Projected vehicle use  9% turnover rate per year EV Diffusion Model  Modeled after HEV uptake in SF Lin’s Lackeys

Electric Vehicle Adoption Lin’s Lackeys

Diffusion Curves Lin’s Lackeys

EV Load Profile Charging follows a normal distribution  87% of charging between 5 and 8 pm  Average charge for 23 miles of daily travel Lin’s Lackeys

Seasonal Loads in SDEC Territory Lin’s Lackeys

Temperature vs. Wholesale Price Lin’s Lackeys

Cost of Load Growth Detail  Assume expansion of load up to 5% requires expansion of substations and transformers.  Assume expansion beyond 5% requires new substations and transformers as well as upgrades to lines and feeders.  Use data provided by Ms. Alesia Gonzales and yearly projections of demand growth to calculate discounted sum of expansion costs, assuming upgrades undertaken as needed. Lin’s Lackeys

Cost of Load Growth Detail (cont.) Lin’s Lackeys $/MW System PeakMeanSt. Dev Average Capital Costs Substation/Transformers$43,064$18,903 Lines/Feeders$237,644$100,906 Marginal Capital Costs Substation/Transformers$91,062$94,919 Lines/Feeders$447,964$589,524 Average O&M Costs Substation/Transformers$424$306 Lines/Feeders$7,671$4,470 Load Demand % Growth Substation/Transformers & Lines/ Feeder % Upgrades Mean Costs Expanding Yearly O&M Costs 1%5%$238,933$3,588 2%8%$382,293$5,741 3%10%$477,867$7,177 4%14%$669,013$10,047 5%18%$860,160$12,918

Modeling Long-Term Contracts  Most of SDEC’s electricity comes from long-term contracts  Use existing year of load and wholesale price data to simulate future load service costs  Contracts are good for a range of potential loads (avg. load for a given hour ± 1 std. dev.)  Price per kWh for contract is determined by avg. wholesale cost for that hour  If forecasted load is greater than max contract load, then extra power must be bought from wholesale market at spot price (vice versa for selling extra power) Lin’s Lackeys

Modeling Long-Term Contracts Lin’s Lackeys Load (kW) Contract coverage For all hours h ending 01:00 – 00:00 Avg. Load in hour h Y (+ 1 s.d.) X (- 1 s.d.) 0 Contract provides Y, B-Y must be bought on wholesale market B A Contract provides entire load (A) Contract provides X, X-C is sold on wholesale market C