Dimitar Bakardzhiev Managing Partner Taller Technologies Project Planning using Little’s Law.

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Presentation transcript:

Dimitar Bakardzhiev Managing Partner Taller Technologies Project Planning using Little’s Law

In Kanban a project is a batch of work items each representing independent customer value that must be delivered at or before a certain date

When planning a project You need to provide some idea as to when the project is going to be delivered. You need to provide a quote to the customer of how much the project will cost so she can decide whether to commit or not.

Little’s Law for production systems

Little’s Law applies to any system, and particularly, it applies to systems within systems

Little’s Law holds in case of a project 1. We must have conservation of Flow The average output or departure rate (TH) equals the average input or arrival rate (λ) There are no work items that get lost or never depart from the system 2. The system must occasionally empty, i.e., WIP = 0

Little’s Law can help us calculate the average Lead Time for a work item. But we need a relationship between the average Lead Time for a work item and the finite time period over which the project will be delivered!

A Kanban system is a queuing system!

How we measure Lead Time?

Visual kanban system

Average throughput of the project system equals the average throughput of the development system!

Proof using mathematical notation

Calculating Lead time for the project :

Number of developers we will need:

Examples

Calculating project delivery date

Budgeting a project

Calculated delivery time should be used only for the second leg of the Z- curve!

Z-curve

When calculating Project lead time we need to: Account for the other two legs of the Z-curve Account for Dark Matter Account for Failure load

Planned Project lead time is the sum of the calculated project length and a project buffer

The two essential measurements of project performance are the percentage of the project completed and the amount of the project buffer consumed.

Buffer consumption

Project Buffer length calculation

Percentage of the project completed

Project buffer consumption