George Moundreas & CO. SA Dry Cargo Segment 2013 Is it over? Forward prospects… Cash Flow Break Even Point George Logothetis February 2014
G.M. & CO. SA LAST YEAR - How It Started…
G.M. & CO. SA What Happened Since Then… DECEMBER 05, 2013 INDEXAVG. T/C5 yrs Vessel Price BDI2.145 BCI ( CAPESIZE )3.843$28.899$ BPI ( PANAMAX )1.867$14.338$ BSI ( SUPRAMAX )1.531$15.917$ BHSI ( HANDYSIZE )780$11.141$ LAST YEAR SAME TIME NOVEMBER 30, 2012 INDEXAVG. T/C5 yrs Vessel Price BDI1.086 BCI ( CAPESIZE )2.199$15.869$ BPI ( PANAMAX )980$7.815$ BSI ( SUPRAMAX )766$8.005$ BHSI ( HANDYSIZE )448$6.605$ % Δ - NOVEMBER 30, DECEMBER 06, 2012 INDEXAVG. T/C5 yrs Vessel Price BDI97,51% BCI ( CAPESIZE )74,76%82,11%19% BPI ( PANAMAX )90,51%83,47%21% BSI ( SUPRAMAX )99,87%98,84%13% BHSI ( HANDYSIZE )74,11%68,68%16%
G.M. & CO. SA What Happened in 2013 Baltic Dry Index (BDI) Disappointing first half of 2013, with rates at or below OPEX, improvement in the 3 rd quarter and further improvement the 4 th quarter. The 4 th quarter would be the best one since 2011 and the BDI would reach the maximum level of the last 2 years. Supply In the first 10 months, 630 bulkers of about 51.7 million DWT were delivered which is 40% less than the same period last year. Total deliveries would not exceed 60 million DWT compared with 100 million DWT each year for 2011 and Fleet growth about 4.7% compared to double digit growth since 2010 and the lowest since New Building Orders The first 10 months, about 811 bulkers were ordered of about 55 million DWT, an increase of 145% y-o-y. Greek Ship owners have placed orders in excess of 100 vessels ($ 2.8 billion) representing 22% of total orders in DWT.
G.M. & CO. SA What Happened in 2013 Second Hand Activity Strong S&P activity world wide with about 500 bulkers sold in the first ten months in excess of $ 6.2 billion. Strong Greek presence with the acquisition of more than 210 vessels in excess of $ 3 billion. Recycling Diminished recycling activity compared to It is estimated that the year will close with about 25 million DWT, 30% down from the total of 36 million DWT last year. Finance Limited finance with the exception of Top Tier clients. Alternative methods?
G.M. & CO. SA What to expect ? Supply growth to be reduced in the next couple of years. For 2014 and 2015 fleet supply about 4% each year. Supply might be reduced further due to environmental regulations which will increase demolition activity thus we expect more than the 25 million DWT of Demand growth in terms of tonne miles for 2014 and 2015 around 6%, surpassing the fleet growth. Asset prices for New Building and Second hand vessels on an upward trend. Finance, better than 2013 but still very selective. Alternative methods would be the Capital Markets and the P.E but traditional debt will be the primary source. Conference Board estimates World annual growth rate for 2014 at 3.1% with upward trend for 2015 and OECD at 3.6%, in contrast with the low 2.8% of As per CPB, World Trade (Trade Volumes) to increase 4.8% in 2014 vs. 3% in The WTO estimates an increase 4.5% in 2014 vs. 2.5% in The upward trend is there however. Caution for possible correction of the market towards the end of 2015 and in 2016 due to increased orders placed this year and maybe next year.
G.M. & CO. SA Cyclicality When reviewing the BDI from 1985, and using written reports on the shipping industry as far back as the early 1970′s, we believe we have uncovered a regular 13 year cycle. It appears every 13 years shipping rates make a cyclical low: After the low is in place rates generally: rise for the next 9 years, then decline 4 years into the next cyclical low. During the 9 year bull market, rates rise for 5 years decline for 1 year and then rise for another 3 years into the cyclical peak. Provided that we are in the 9 years recovery period, based on the above historical data, the next correction which will last for about a year, will take place around 2016 due to the increased orders of 2013 and 2014.
G.M. & CO. SA Cash Flow Break Even Point Cash Flow Break Even Point, is the daily earnings required in order for the vessel to be able to cover only the daily OPEX and the daily Loan requirements (Capital + Interest) without taking under consideration any kind of returns. Loan Assumptions Equity: 40% Loan: 60% Interest Rate (Libor + Spread): 4% Tenor: 10 years Balloon: 20%
G.M. & CO. SA Cash Flow Break Even Point CAPE NEW BUILDING PRICE: $ EQUITY (40%): $ LOAN (60%): $ BALLOON (20%): $ OPEX per day: $ AVG. B.E.P: $ / day AVG B.E.P excl. Balloon : $ / day CAPE 5 Years PRICE: $ EQUITY (40%): $ LOAN (60%): $ BALLOON (20%): $ OPEX per day: $ AVG. B.E.P: $ / day AVG B.E.P excl. Balloon : $ / day
G.M. & CO. SA Cash Flow Break Even Point PANAMAX NEW BUILDING PRICE: $ EQUITY (40%): $ LOAN (60%): $ BALLOON (20%): $ OPEX per day: $ AVG. B.E.P: $ / day AVG B.E.P excl. Balloon : $ / day PANAMAX 5 Years PRICE: $ EQUITY (40%): $ LOAN (60%): $ BALLOON (20%): $ OPEX per day: $ AVG. B.E.P: $ / day AVG B.E.P excl. Balloon : $ / day
G.M. & CO. SA Cash Flow Break Even Point ULTRAMAX NEW BUILDING PRICE: $ EQUITY (40%): $ LOAN (60%): $ BALLOON (20%): $ OPEX per day: $ AVG. B.E.P: $ / day AVG B.E.P excl. Balloon : $ / day ULTRAMAX 5 Years (estimation) PRICE: $ EQUITY (40%): $ LOAN (60%): $ BALLOON (20%): $ OPEX per day: $ AVG. B.E.P: $ / day AVG B.E.P excl. Balloon : $ / day
G.M. & CO. SA Cash Flow Break Even Point SUPRAMAX NEW BUILDINGSUPRAMAX 5 Years PRICE: $ EQUITY (40%): $ LOAN (60%): $ BALLOON (20%): $ OPEX per day: $ AVG. B.E.P: $ / day AVG B.E.P excl. Balloon : $ / day
G.M. & CO. SA Cash Flow Break Even Point HANDYSIZE NEW BUILDING PRICE: $ EQUITY (40%): $ LOAN (60%): $ BALLOON (20%): $ OPEX per day: $ AVG. B.E.P: $ / day AVG B.E.P excl. Balloon : $ / day HANDYSIZE 5 Years PRICE: $ EQUITY (40%): $ LOAN (60%): $ BALLOON (20%): $ OPEX per day: $ AVG. B.E.P: $ / day AVG B.E.P excl. Balloon : $ / day
G.M. & CO. SA LAST YEAR Opportunities ? SWOT ANALYSIS S trengths: W eaknesses: O pportunities: T hreats: Determined by the current Financial position of each company. High Demolition prices (Minimization of Losses – Cash Injection). Fleet expansion - Low Second Hand & New Building Prices with favourable payment terms, back-end loaded. Reduction in average age fleet. Diversification in size. Market Leader in new ECO type vessels and tonnage. Eurozone Crisis. Regardless of the outcome on Fiscal Cliff in USA, possible slow down. Chinese growth stabilized at current levels. Geopolitical issues – China & Japan - Arab Spring Rising of Protectionism
G.M. & CO. SA LAST YEAR Opportunities ? SWOT ANALYSIS S trengths: W eaknesses: O pportunities: T hreats: Determined by the current Financial position of each company. High Demolition prices (Minimization of Losses – Cash Injection). Fleet expansion - Low Second Hand & New Building Prices with favourable payment terms, back-end loaded. Reduction in average age fleet. Diversification in size. Market Leader in new ECO type vessels and tonnage. Eurozone Crisis. Regardless of the outcome on Fiscal Cliff in USA, possible slow down. Chinese growth stabilized at current levels. Geopolitical issues – China & Japan - Arab Spring Rising of Protectionism BACK TO THE BASICS “CA$H IS KING”
George Moundreas & CO. SA George Logothetis February 2014