The Impacts of the Indian Ocean warming trend on African Climate. Dan Hodson and Rowan Sutton NCAS Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling Department of.

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Presentation transcript:

The Impacts of the Indian Ocean warming trend on African Climate. Dan Hodson and Rowan Sutton NCAS Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling Department of Meteorology University of Reading

Outline Observations. Experiments I –Atmosphere model forced with: Historical Observed Sea Surface Temperatures. 1°C Anomaly in the Indian Ocean Indian Ocean Temperature Trend Experiments II –Atmosphere model force with Observed Indian Ocean warming Trend Results Conclusions and Caveats

Observations

Hoerling et al. J. Climate Trend in Rainfall

Experiments I

AGCM forced with Observed SSTs

AGCM Forced with Obs SSTs Hoerling et al. J. Climate 2006 FMA

AGCM Forced with Obs SSTs Hoerling et al. J. Climate 2006 JAS

AGCM forced with 1°C Indian Ocean

+1°C

AGCM Forced with 1C Indian Ocean Anomaly

Indian Ocean Temperature Trend

Indian Ocean SST Trend C

Indian Ocean SST trend Annual mean SST trend C/year

Atmosphere model force with Observed Indian Ocean warming Trend

Jan May Sept SST Anomalies

Indian Ocean SST Trend C IOP ION

Experiment Five AGCMs –Arpege –CAM3 –Echam5 –GAM (IAP) –HadAM3 Indian Ocean Positive (IOP) Indian Ocean Negative (ION)

Results

FMA Vertical velocityRainfallSurface Temperature ARP CAM ECH GAM HAD

JAS Vertical velocityRainfallSurface Temperature ARP CAM ECH GAM HAD

Caveats?

Observed MSLP trends Copsey et al GRL 2006

MSLP Trends

Conclusions AGCMs forced with warm Indian Ocean capture some of the trends in African rainfall (both FMA and JAS). Trends associated with changes in subsidence/ changes in Walker Circulation. Can we use AGCMs to model past changes in this way?

Vertical Structure JAS

Vertical Structure FMA

Station rainfall trends (JAS/FMA)