Simulated Stratospheric Temperature Trends SPARC Temperature Trends Meeting: April 13, 2007 Washington DC.

Coupled Chemistry Climate Model Simulations of Stratospheric Temperature J. Austin, P. Forster, J. Wilson, S. Bekki, N. Butchard, M. Chipperfield, C. Claud, R.Garcia, N. Gellett, M. Giorgetta, P. Keckhut, D. Kinnison, U. Langematz, E. Manzini, C. Mears, A. Miller, T. Nagasima, J. Nash, S. Pwosn, W.J. Randel., E. Rozanov, T.G.Shepherd, K. Shibata, K.P. Shine, D. Seidel, H. Struthers, D. Thompson, and S. Yoden Manuscript in preparation:

AMTRAC 3 x CCSRNIES CMAM GEOSCCM LMDZepro MAECHAM-4CHEM MRI SOCOL UMETRAC UMSLIMCAT WACCM 3 x Participating Models: CCMval model intercomparison Eyring et al. 2006: Assessment of temperature, trace species and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past, J. Geophys. Res. 111, D22308, doi: /2006JD

A(t)= a o + a 1 t + a 2 + a 3 F (t) Averaged Monthly fields: A(t) is aerosol surface area: (tropics at 60hPa)

Fig. 1: Annually & Globally Averaged Temperature --- UKMO Data Assimilation

Annually-averaged trends: K/decade 0.25 K contour interval Shading: 95% confidence level

Annually-averaged trends:

Fig. 5 Global, Annual Averaged Temperature Anomaly (referenced to 1980)

Vertically-Weighted Global Average Temperature Fig. 6

- MSU/SSU ( ) Fig. 7

Solar Cycle 0.5 K/100 units 10.7 cm flux 0.7 K for solar Aerosols Surface area density: Typical eruption: 1.5e-7 cm 2 /cm 3 1 K

Figure 9 Time Series of Arctic Temperatures 60-90°N (Feb-April) 11 year running avg.

Arctic Temperature Trends

Time Series of Antarctic Temperatures 60-90°S (Sept-Nov) 11 year running avg.

Antarctic Temperature Trends