8th meeting of the TFEIP’s projections expert panel, 15th May 2012 Bern, Switzerland. Emissions projections reported under the LRTAP convention and EEA.

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Presentation transcript:

8th meeting of the TFEIP’s projections expert panel, 15th May 2012 Bern, Switzerland. Emissions projections reported under the LRTAP convention and EEA countries visibility in global emission scenario studies. John van Aardenne (EEA). Acknowledgements: LRTAP: Elisabeth Kampel and Melanie Tista (UBA-Vienna), Martin Adams (EEA) ETC-ACM scenario study: A. Colette, S. Schucht, J.-C. Péré, B. Bessagnet, L. Rouïl: Institut National de l’Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), France and R. Koelemeijer, H. Eerens, K. Van Velze: Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), the Netherlands and G. Mellios: EMISIA, Greece

Overview A.Emission projections in the draft EU LRTAP emission inventory report Reporting requirements on projections Projections in the 2012 EU LRTAP emission inventory report Overview on trends, gaps Future role of projections expert panel B. Brief presentation of the ETC-ACM technical report ”Cobenefits of climate and air pollution regulations” that includes an evaluation of representation/visibility of EU-EEA countries in global emission scenarios. (as presented in 7th meeting of projections expert panel) Acknowledgements: LRTAP: Elisabeth Kampel and Melanie Tista (UBA-Vienna), Martin Adams (EEA) ETC-ACM scenario study: A. Colette, S. Schucht, J.-C. Péré, B. Bessagnet, L. Rouïl: (INERIS), and R. Koelemeijer, H. Eerens, K. Van Velze (PBL), and G. Mellios: EMISIA

Reporting requirements on projections From ECE/EB.AIR/97 27 January 2009 (reporting guidelines) 36. Parties to the Gothenburg Protocol shall report their latest available projections at least every five years, and provide any updated projections annually by 15 February, for the years 2010, 2015, 2020, 2030 and Parties to the Convention that are not Parties to the Protocol are also strongly encouraged to provide this information. (Parties are not required to report projections for those years in which emissions data are reported as part of the inventory reporting specified in paragraph 29) 37. Projected emissions for sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3), particulate matter-10 (PM10), PM2.5 and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) should be reported using table IV.2a of annex IV to these Guidelines. Parties should complete the tables at the requested level of aggregation. Where values for individual categories or aggregated NFR categories are not available, the notation keys defined in section II.C of annex I to these Guidelines should be used. 38. Quantitative information on parameters underlying emission projections should be reported using the templates set out in table IV.2b of annex IV to these Guidelines. These parameters should be reported for the projection target year and the historic year chosen as the starting year for the projections.

Projections in the 2012 EU LRTAP emission inventory report Information from: Draft European Union emission inventory report 1990–2010 under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) as submitted for EIONET review. “Under the reporting process to the LRTAP Convention, some Member States have submitted emission projections for the year 2015 and up to 2050 in some cases. Submitted data are available in Annex E to this report. This report does not provide further detailed analysis of projections reported by the countries in relation to the emission ceilings for 2010 in the Gothenburg Protocol to the LRTAP Convention” The next slides present an overview and short analysis of the available projections data Please note: Numbers reflect data available until March 09, 2012 Presentation´s aim is to inform, learn and discuss not to ”judge”

NOx projections submitted by Member States (status March 2012) NO x (Gg)Gothenburg CeilingEmissions 2010 WM Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom One or more years in projections are based on 2010 submitted data One or more years in projections are based on 2011 submitted data

NMVOC projections submitted by Member States (status March 2012) NMVOC (Gg)Gothenburg CeilingEmissions 2010 WM Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom One or more years in projections are based on 2010 submitted data One or more years in projections are based on 2011 submitted data

SOx projections submitted by Member States (status March 2012) SO x (Gg)Gothenburg CeilingEmissions 2010 WM Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom One or more years in projections are based on 2010 submitted data One or more years in projections are based on 2011 submitted data

NH3 projections submitted by Member States (status March 2012) NH 3 (Gg)Gothenburg CeilingEmissions 2010 WM Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom One or more years in projections are based on 2010 submitted data One or more years in projections are based on 2011 submitted data

PM10 projections submitted by Member States (status March 2012) PM 10 (Gg) Emissions 2010 WM Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg NE Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom One or more years in projections are based on 2010 submitted data One or more years in projections are based on 2011 submitted data

PM2.5 projections submitted by Member States (status March 2012) PM 2.5 (Gg) Emissions 2010 WM Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom One or more years in projections are based on 2010 submitted data One or more years in projections are based on 2011 submitted data

Some reflections on these projections Many gaps Insufficient information to combine projections and perform analysis at the EU27 level Sometimes 2010 inventory data <> 2010 data in Table 2A_WM (projections) Ceilings not met in 2010 sometimes also not met in future years Ceilings met in 2010 sometimes exceeded after 2010 etc.... How to reflect and (if needed) how to act under the TFEIP’s projections expert panel to support countries and improve their projections.

Evaluation of low carbon scenarios and inclusion of air pollutant emissions

Comparison of GHG emissions

Comparison of air pollutant emissions