1 Source and Destination: Transfer Success at a Multi-campus University System AIR 2004 Forum The Information Revolution: Bridging the Past to the Future May 31, 2004 – 4:10 PM Salon K, Boston Marriott Copley Place Boston, Massachusetts Mardy Eimers, Director of Institutional Research & Planning Kathy Schmidtke, Graduate Student, Institutional Research & Planning

2 Importance of Transfers Approximately 42% of all new students are transfer students. At the urban institutions, transfer students represent 64% and 78% of all new students. Transfers are a significant part of enrollment management efforts. Admission requirements for transfer students differ from those of first-time entering students.

3 University of Missouri System Large residential campus Engineering residential campus Two urban campuses Total 46,000 undergraduates

4 Literature Review Transfer Shock (Hill, 1965) Transfer and “Native” Students (Arnold, 2001; Glass & Harrington, 2002; Koker & Hendel, 2003; and Saupe & Long, 1996) Transfer in the Urban setting (Bach, Banks, Kinnick, Ricks, Stoering, & Walleri, 1999) Role of Associate’s Degree (Saupe & Long, 1996; Townsend & Barnes, 2001)

5 Source of Transfer Percent of UM Transfer Students

6 Destination of Transfer Percent of UM Transfer Students

7 Transfer Student Population 10% Underrepresented minorities 12% Had an A.A. Or A.S. Degree Mean Transfer GPA – 2.9 Mean Transfer Hours – 58 Graduation Data: –Six-year Graduation Rate – 53% –Mean Years to Graduation – 2.9 –Of those graduating, 64% graduated within 3 yrs.

8 Original Study - Transfer v. Native (Lehmkuhle, Eimers, and Mullen, 2003) Transfer  24 hours  2.0 GPA Native Third semester Transfer Hours Transfer GPA UM System 6-year Graduation Rate 1991 – 1997 Fall Cohorts

9 Graduation Rate Graduation Rates – Native v. Transfer Fall 1996 FT/FT DS Freshmen 6-year Grad. Rate 59%

10 Original Study - Research Questions 1.Are transfer students more likely to graduate than native students, when controlling for ability and credit hours? 2.What characteristics help explain a transfer student’s likelihood of graduating?

11 Original Study Findings Transfer GPA and Transfer Hours - strong positive indicators of a student’s likelihood to graduate Additionally, being an internal UM transfer and/or being female – positive indicators Negative indicators - having a post- secondary degree, transferring to an urban institution, and/or being an underrepresented minority.

12 New Study – Phase I SOURCE - MO 2-year 4-year UM System Transfer Hours Transfer GPA UM System DESTINATION 6-year Graduation Rate

13 Research Questions – Phase I 3.Are transfer students more likely to graduate if they enter from a 2-year, 4-year, or UM System institution, when controlling for ability and credit hours? 4.What characteristics help explain a transfer student’s likelihood of graduating, based on whether they transfer from a 2-year, 4-year, or UM System institution?

14 UM Transfer Students Graduation Rate Graduation Rates by Source Institution

15 Student GPA Less Than 2.50 % Graduating Credit Hours Student GPA 3.5 or more % Graduating Credit Hours

16 Credit Hours: % Graduating GPA Credit Hours: Over 60 % Graduating GPA

17 Control Independent Variables Male Other Ethnicity Female Asian or Minority (African American, Hispanic, Native American) 2 year or UM Associate’s of Arts, Associate’s of Science or Other Associates (2-year only) Residential GPA Category Transfer Hour Category Age 4 year No Assoc. Deg Urban POINT ESTIMATE = 1 As Likely to Graduate as “Control” Dependent Variable Graduate Don’t Graduate Logistic Regression

18 Logistic Regression Findings – 4-year Independent VariablePoint Estimate Effect Transfer GPA1.484Positive Transfer Hours1.165Positive Transfer to Residential1.683Positive Age0.955Negative Minority0.761Negative

19 Logistic Regression Findings – 2-year Independent VariablePoint Estimate Effect Transfer GPA1.529Positive Transfer Hours1.204Positive Female1.158Positive Associate’s of Arts Deg1.270Positive Transfer to Residential1.103Positive Age0.964Negative Other Associate’s Deg0.707Negative Minority0.711Negative

20 Logistic Regression Findings – UM Independent VariablePoint Estimate Effect Transfer GPA1.221Positive Transfer Hours1.125Positive Transfer to Residential1.528Positive Age0.929Negative

21 New Study – Phase II SOURCE - MO Transfer Hours Transfer GPA Urban Residential UM System DESTINATION 6-year Graduation Rate Missouri Institutions

22 Research Questions – Phase II 5.Are transfer students more likely to graduate if they transfer to an urban or residential campus, when controlling for ability and credit hours? 6.What characteristics help explain a transfer student’s likelihood of graduating, based on whether the student transferred to an urban or residential campus?

23 Graduation Rate Graduation Rates of MO Transfer Students by Destination Institution 48%59% All UM Transfers 52%

24 Student GPA Less Than 2.50 % Graduating Credit Hours Student GPA 3.5 or more % Graduating Credit Hours

25 Credit Hours: % Graduating GPA Credit Hours: Over 60 % Graduating GPA

26 Logistic Regression Findings – Urban Independent VariablePoint Estimate Effect Transfer GPA1.438Positive Transfer Hours1.134Positive Source UM1.619Positive Female1.398Positive Source Two-year1.138Positive Age0.965Negative Minority0.712Negative

27 Logistic Regression Findings – Residential Independent VariablePoint Estimate Effect Transfer GPA1.588Positive Transfer Hours1.256Positive Source UM1.460Positive Asian1.610Positive Age0.947Negative Female0.839Negative Minority0.710Negative Source Two-year0.679Negative

28 2-year Transfer Students Graduation Rate Graduation Rates by Type of Associate’s Graduation Rate for all 2-yr 52% N = 2,361N = 6,180 N = 527 N = 176

29 Exploratory Phase SOURCE - MO 2-year 4-year UM System Transfer Hours Transfer GPA Urban Residential UM System DESTINATION 6-year Graduation Rate

30 Graduation Rate Graduation Rates by Destination Institution 61%31%43%48%

31 Logistic Regression Findings – 4-year to urban Independent VariablePoint Estimate Effect Transfer GPA1.420Positive Transfer Hours1.102Positive Female1.323Positive Age0.960Negative Minority0.768Negative

32 Logistic Regression Findings –2-year to Urban Independent VariablePoint Estimate Effect Transfer GPA1.453Positive Transfer Hours1.122Positive Associate’s of Arts Deg.1.436Positive Female1.405Positive Age0.967Negative Other Associate’s Deg.0.760Negative Minority0.672Negative

33 2-year Transfer Students to an Urban Graduation Rate Graduation Rates by Type of Associate’s Graduation Rate for all 2-yr Urban 50% N = 1,865N = 3,688N = 468N = 135

34 Logistic Regression - 4-year to Residential Independent VariablePoint Estimate Effect Transfer GPA1.541Positive Transfer Hours1.213Positive Age0.950Negative Minority0.726Negative

35 Logistic Regression – 2-year to Residential Independent VariablePoint Estimate Effect Asian2.063Positive Transfer GPA1.686Positive Transfer Hours1.348Positive Age0.947Negative Female0.784Negative

36 2-year Transfer Students to a Residential Graduation Rate Graduation Rates by Type of Associate’s Graduation Rate of all 2-yr Residential 56% N = 496N = 2,492N = 59N = 41

37 Limitations University of Missouri data Native student attrition Strength of logistic model Cell Size after aggregations

38 Findings Regardless of whether a student enters from a 2-year or 4-year institution, Transfer GPA and Transfer Hours continue to be strong positive indicators of graduation. When controlling for GPA and hours, 4-year transfers graduate at a higher rate than 2-year transfers. When controlling for GPA and hours, students who transfer to a residential institution graduate at a higher rate than students who transfer to an urban institution. In an urban institution, 2-year transfers are more successful than 4-year transfers, while in a residential institution, 4-year transfers are more successful. For 2-year transfers, obtaining the Associate’s of Arts degree is a positive indicator of graduation at an urban institution.

39 Discussion & Future Research Focus Transfer assimilation and articulation (AA, 42-hr) Transfer admission standards Difference in success of 2-year and 4-year students transferring to urban and residential campuses. Shared responsibility of all institutions and disciplines Ideas or modifications for future studies

40 Additional Information Mardy Eimers: Office of Institutional Research & Planning 721 Lewis Hall University of Missouri System University of Missouri-Columbia Columbia, Missouri (573) Kathy Schmidtke: Office of Institutional Research & Planning 712 Lewis Hall University of Missouri System University of Missouri-Columbia Columbia, Missouri (573)