Jana Poljak Zagreb, 22 May 2012 Preparation of National Reform Programmes in view of Europe 2020 Strategy and enhanced macroeconomic surveillance Slovenian experience

Evolution of Strategies 2 Lisbon 1.0 (2000) –most competitive knowledge based economy in the world –Japan and USA Lisbon 2.0 (2005) "re-launch" –focus on growth and jobs –looking inward if it's not broken don't fix it … Lisbon 2.1 (2008) "update„ => goals not reached EU2020 (2010): –Stronger ownership (national targets) –Enhanced economic governance –European semester

Beginnings of common policy coordination Treaty of Maastricht. White paper on Growth, Competitiveness and Employment – first attempt on common European structural policy coordination; Employment Guidelines – National action Plans, Joint employment Report, Specific Recommendations; Lisbon Strategy – Integrated Guidelines, common goals for the decade, open method of coordination, country specific recommendations, national reform programmes; Europe 2020 – European semester, reinforced coordination, combined budgetary and structural policy planning, national targets, national reform programmes and stability programmes prepared together, additional instrument for preventive surveillance of the economic and fiscal policies of its member states. Greater transparency and a higher concentration of information going forward give reason to hope that the peripheral states will have a better chance of demonstrating their vigor in consolidating their finances => fiscal pact. 3

Europe interlinked priorities: 1.) Smart growth: developing an economy based on knowledge and innovation 2.) Sustainable growth: promoting a more efficient, greener and more competitive economy 3.) Inclusive growth: fostering a high-employment economy delivering social and territorial cohesion 3 5 headline targets: 75 % employment rate (% of population aged years) 3% investment in R&D (% of EU’s GDP) “20/20/20” climate/energy targets met Less than 10% school drop-out rates and at least 40% of the population aged having completed tertiary or equivalent education; Lifting at least 20 million people out of the risk of poverty and - exclusion

EU tools in support of Europe 2020 Single market relaunch Trade and external policies EU financial support EU levers for growth and jobs EU flagship initiatives EU monitoring and guidance Macro, thematic and fiscal surveillance Annual Growth Survey Annual policy guidance Innovation Union New Skills and Jobs Digital Agenda Youth on the Move New Industrial Policy Platform against Poverty Resource Efficiency

Reinforced Governance Fiscal surveillance Macro-economic surveillance Thematic surveillance Europe 2020 Integrated Guidelines (IG) Europe 2020 five headline targets Stability and Growth Pact National Reform Programmes Stability and Convergence Programmes Commission’s Annual Growth Survey EU annual policy guidance and recommendations EU flagship initiatives and levers National level EU level

Council of Ministers European Commission European Parliament European Council Annual economic & social summit JanuaryMarchApril February MayJuneJuly Submission of National Reform Programmes (NRPs) & Stability and Convergence Programmes (SCPs) Autumn: Peer review at EU level Autumn: Decisions at national level Debate & orientations Endorsement of guidance Finalisation & adoption of guidance Member States Annual Growth Survey Policy guidance including possible recommendations Debate & orientations European economic semester

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National policy coordination – Slovenia Prepared by Institute for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development Independent Office – reports to the Government Programe prepared on the basis of Slovenian Development Strategy National Reform Programme for achieving Lisbon Strategy Goals Prepared by Institute for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development A comprehensive document – description of current situation and ongoing processes 2006 Implementation Report 2007 Implementation Report Prepared by Institute for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development continuation of current form, no connection to finance, lacks indicators (124 pages) 2008 Lisbon 2.1 Implementation Report and new Programme for achieving Lisbon Strategy Goals Prepared by Government Office for Development short term anti-crisis measures Structural measures Tables: review and evaluation of structural measures (18 pages + annex) 2009 Implementation Report and new Programme for achieving Lisbon Strategy Goals Prepared by Government Office for Growth and European affairs Part of a new national policy coordination Measures include financial aspect, indicators and target values 42 pages + Annex 2010 EU National Reform Programme Prepared by Ministry of Finance Supported by budget Prepared together with stability Programme Economic and social partners consensus 2012 National Reform Programme 9

NRP 2011 evaluation 10

Reform Implementation Evaluation 11

DecJanFebMarAprMajJunJul Ostale razvojne politike Poročanje Fiskalna politika Države članice oddajo PS (vključuj e Evro + pakt) Komisija pripravi „Letni pregled rasti“ Države članice oddajo NRP (vključuj e Evro + pakt) Priprava KOMISIJ A pripravi ocene PS in NRP ECOFIN pripravi prispevek za Evropski svet Ocena Politična odgovornost Horizontalni nadzor EVROPSKI SVET ECOFIN sprejme mnenje o PS Sveti pripravijo priporočila za države članice na mikro in makro področju Politična odgovornost Države članice sledijo priporočilom Komisija izvaja nadzor nad implementacijo EU SEMESTER Izvajanje Nadzor nad fiskalno in makroekonomskimi politikami Države članice znižujejo strukturni primanjkljaj proti MTO (vsaj za 0,5 % na leto) oziroma znižujejo primanjkljaj proti 3 % BDP (vsaj za 0,5 % BDP na leto) in dolg proti 60 % BDP (presežek se znižuje za 1/20 na leto) Komisija in Svet spremljata fiskalno disciplino; v primeru pomanjkanja ukrepov je državi članici naložena finančna kazen v višini 0,2 % BDP Države članice z izvajanjem ekonomskih politik skrbijo, da ne prihaja do makroekonomskih neravnotežij Komisija in Svet s pomočjo mehanizma opozarjanja spremljata izvajanje ustreznih makroekonomskih politik, ki preprečujejo ali odpravljajo nastanek makroekonomskih neravnotežij; v primeru pomanjkanja ukrepov je državi članici naložena finančna kazen v višini 0,1 % BDP Komisija pregleda osnutke proračunov in poda priporočila Države članice oddajo proračunsk e načrte Komisija pripravi „Alert Mechanism Report“ Pregled ukrepov za povečanje konkurenčnosti v Evro + paktu Economic partnership programme?

Guidelines for National Reform Programmes GENERAL RULES NRP should: Reflect the general guidance identified annually in the Annual Growth Survey Report on measures implemented and planned to address Country-Specific Recommendations Report on measures implemented and planned to achieve the national targets contributing to EU headline targets Report on measures to fulfill the Euro Plus Pact commitments Include a macroeconomic scenario in line with that in the SCPs For the planed measures: -it should be specified how they will be implemented, by when, by whom and with what budgetary consequences -they should be concrete enough to allow the Commission to asses their expected impact, -they should be prioritised (frontloading) 13 TRANSPARENCY COMPARABILITY INVOLVEMENT OF CONCERNED PARTIES EMPHASIS ON IMPLEMENTATION ANNUAL UPDATE EUROPEAN SEMESTER - DEADLINE

Slovenia‘s strategic documents 14 Slovenia's Development Strategy Slovenian Exit Strategy (until 2013) and necessary structural changes Programme of Development Priorities and Investments National Reform Programme Stability Programme State and municipial budgets, Funds of Health Insurance Institute and Pension and Disability Insurance Institute Report on the Efficiency of Development Policies Development Report Forecast of Economic Trends Competitiveness Report Stability and Growth Pact EU 2020 Expected changes in

Preparation Process First draft: Ministry of Finance Interministerial coordination Second draft: Ministry of Finance Government Board for Economic Issues Presented to the Social Partners Adopted on Government session Presented to the Parliament 15 NRP Sent to the European Commission

Content NRP Macroeconomic measures for fiscal stability 2.Agenda of reforms and measures Smart growth: education, R&D, ICT, industry, administrative burdens Inclusive growth; employment, social protection Sustainable growth: transport, environment, agriculture 3.Simulation of effects of specific measures using the DSGE model 4.Public debate Annex 1: Standard table for the assessment of CSRs and macro-structural reform in the NRPs Annex 2: Report on measures to meet EU 2020 targets and other commitments 16

Thank you! 17