New Perspectives on Climate Change Research in Brazil Carlos Nobre Center for Earth System Science National Institute for Space Research – INPE and Executive Coordinator of the FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change 08 December 2008

Contents … Introduction: the role of S&T for sustainable development New research programs on climate change in Brazil: –FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change –Climate Change Research Network – Rede CLIMA –National Institute for Climate Change Research Conclusion: the National Climate Change Plan

Percentage of Global Annual Emissions Kyoto Protocol Adopted 57 % 43 % UNFCCC 62 % 38 % Kyoto Protocol Entered into Force 49.7 % 50.3 % Current 47 % Kyoto Protocol Regional Shift in Emissions Share J. Gregg and G. Marland, 2008, personal communication Top Emitters 1. China 2.USA 4. Russia 3. India 53 %

SRES (2000) aver. growth rates in % y -1 for : A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71 A1T: 1.63 A2: 2.13 B1: 1.79 B2: 1.61 Observed % Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios Raupach et al 2007, PNAS; Global Carbon Project (2008) (Avgs.) Top Emitters 1. China 2.USA 4. Russia 3. India

20% Considering GWP of CH 4 = 21 Inventory of Brazilian Emissions by Sector (CO 2 -eq) Land Use Change Agriculture Energy 1% of GDP 30% of GDP

Number of articles by geographical coverage Selection of published articles with key words “climate change”in based on 20 journals (e.g., Science, Nature, PNAS, J. Climate, Climatic Change etc.), during the last 5 years ( ). Average Brazilian contributions is 2% (all areas) Contributions of Brazilian research institutions to the science of climate change

Can Tropical Countries become fully developed in the 21 st Century following sustainable pathways?

Pathways for Earth Sustainability in Brazil The role of S&T The challenge of our generation is to invent a new development paradigm for the Global Tropics, based on S&T, recognizing that rational use of their abundant renewable natural resources and biodiversity can be the key factor for development. This new development paradigm must rest upon a robust capacity to observe and model the Earth System.

The time has come for Global Climate Change Research in Brazil … Why is it important? Over 50% of Brazil’s GDP is dependent on renewable natural resources (agriculture, hydropower, etc.) Large vulnerable populations to extremes of climate and weather (farmers in semi-arid Northeast Brazil and poor urban population) Many other vulnerabilities Unlike other rapidly developing countries, it is quite feasible to reduce emissions

Challenges for Brazilian Research Programs on Climate Change in the Next Decade Detection and attribution of causes of climate change Understanding of global biogeochemical cycles Natural climate variability versus climate change Global climate system models and scenarios Strategies to mitigate emissions of Greenhouse gases in Brazil Key vulnerabilities to climate change Increase in adaptative capacity

The science of global climate change: major challenges Quantification of systemic risks Reduction of uncertainties of projections and turning them more relevant at the regional scales and for adaptation (e.g., projections of extremes) Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research Radically new decarbonization technologies

Brazilian Research Network on Climate Change Research – “Rede CLIMA”

Established at the end of 2007 by the Ministry of S&T to expand the knowledge basis on climate change, impacts, adaptation, vulnerabilty and mitigation Main Goal: increase Brazil’s capacity to cope with the challenges of global environmental change It will articulate over 50 research groups in Brazil covering a broad range of interdisciplinary research on all dimensions of global environmental change Budget: US$ 15 million over 3 years to start implementation It involves initially 10 interconnected themes

Themes of “Rede CLIMA” with Focal Points Water Resources UFPE, Recife Regional Development UnB, Brasília Coastal Zones FURG, Rio Grande Biodiversity and Ecossistems MPEG, Belém Cities and Industry Unicamp, Campinas Agriculture EMBRAPA, Campinas Renewable Energy COPPE / UFRJ, RJ Human Health Fiocruz, RJ Economy of Climate Change USP, São Paulo Climate Modeling INPE

New Rede CLIMA-FAPESP Supercomputer for Climate Change Research Sustained Throughput 15 Tflop/s Main Memory20 TBytes Primary Storage400 TBytes Aquisition Installations 2008 First half of 2009 Total budgetUS$ 22.5 M... This new system will be the 6 th most powerful in the world in climate change research by mid-2009 It will make it possible to run global climate model simulations at high spatial resolutions to grid sizes of 10 km ! FNDCT - US$ 15 M FAPESP - US$ 7.5M

The “National Institute” for Climate Change Research

Competitive Call for Proposals for National Institutes of S&T (INCT): US$ 250 M; 101 INCTs selected The National Institute for Climate Change: - 26 research projects covering the science of climate change, impact-adaptation-vulnerability studies, and mitigation; technological developments in climate modeling and geosensors - 90 research groups in Brazil and 8 countries; 400 researchers and students involved - US$ 3.5 M (+ US$ 5 M from Rede CLIMA) for 3 years

GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

Collective effort to develop the Brazilian Climate System Model Mid 2000s Atmosphere Land Surface Ocean & Sea-Ice Sulphate Aerosol Non-sulphate Dynamic Vegetation Atmospheric Chemistry Aerosol Carbon Cycle Atmosphere Land Surface Ocean & Sea-Ice Sulphate Aerosol Non-sulphate Aerosol Carbon Cycle Atmosphere Land Surface Ocean & Sea-Ice Sulphate Aerosol Atmosphere Land Surface Ocean & Sea-Ice Atmosphere Land Surface Atmosphere Around 2000Late 1990sEarly 1990sMid-1980sMid-1970s The Climate System

Development of a Global Climate System Model Two-pronged approach: (i) full use of experience of CPTEC and (ii) collaboration with advanced climate change centers abroad –Take CPTEC Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model as the structuring building block –Add components: dynamic vegetation with carbon cycle; ocean carbon cycle; enhanced sea ice and pack ice; GHG and aerosols; atmospheric chemistry, etc. –5 year project with engagement of many modeling groups in Brazil –Capacity development in many areas

Brazil’s participation in IPCC AR5 global climate model simulations International collaboration with advanced climate change centers abroad: Hadley Centre and NCAR-ORNL, and others likely Design of simulations to add value to IPCC AR5 ensembles: higher ensemble sizes, higher resolution, different modules and/or physics, chemistry, vegetation, etc. Simulations to be carried out in Rede CLIMA-FAPESP Supercomputing Facility at INPE (likely from last quarter of 2009 through the fist quarter of 2011) Open data policy access for all simulations

FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change

Carefully thought-out research plan (2 years) Long term research Program: 10 years warranted First Call for Proposals launched: US$ 7.5 million Two-pronged Call for Proposals: –US$ 6 million on scientific basis, impacts, and mitigation themes –US$ 1.5 million to develop the Brazilian Global Climate System Model (4 years) Contribution to the development of a full-fledged Earth System Model Supercomputer facility and support for model use and development

Development of a Brazilian Global Climate System Model A single proposal will be selected Consortium of research institutions lead by São Paulo State institution (but engaging institutions from all over Brazil and from abroad) Build-up of existing experience and models developed in Brazil Applied to climate change research No “black-box” solution accepted Aims at developing capacity in all components of Global Climate System Model Strongly associated to PhD training Four years duration; US$ 1.5 M

National Climate Change Plan Federal Government has launched a National Climate Change Plan Climate Change Fund to be established: estimates of US$ 400 million/year for adaptation, mitigation and S&T development Rede CLIMA, INCT for Climate Change and the FAPESP Program (and other research programs being established) will form the pillar for the R&D portion of the National Climate Change Plan