Population Density across the City: The Case of 1900 Manhattan Jason Barr Rutgers University, Newark November 6, 2013

Motivation Little work in economics has explored how population bursts determined land use patterns within the city during period of rapid urbanization. Land use today is a direct product of decisions made over a century ago. Buildings are durable by nature and expensive to tear down. Zoning regulations have tended to “lock-in” uses that were in place circa Landmark preservation also serves similar purpose. Aim to test theories of determinants of urban spatial structure before land use controls.

Current Residential Buildings Built before 1917 * *Includes conversions to resid.

Landmark Districts in Manhattan Today

Urban Density in the 19 th C. Average densities within cities remained around people per acre, despite rapid urbanization. Land annexations kept pace with population growth. However, within cities, very unequal distribution of populations.

Urban Density in the 19 th C NYC Density Today (2010) Borough2010 PopDensity Bronx 1,385, Brooklyn 2,504, Manhattan 1,585, Queens 2,230, Staten Island 468, Pelham, NY12, NYC8, Note: All densities are people per acre

Research Questions What role did the pre-European ecology and topography play? How did local amenities, including access to public transportation, and parks affect density? How did location to Broadway, downtown and rivers affect density? Why the Lower East Side? Building scale and the problem of tenement reform.

Basic Theory: Density

Positively related to amount of housing per acre (e.g., more floors per acre, means more people per acre.) A higher price for housing will increase structural density. Negatively related to housing per person. The greater the demand for larger houses per family, the lower the density at a location. A higher price for housing will reduce H/Family, and thus increase density.  The greater the price of housing per square foot, the more density, cet. par.

Theory: Demand Agents choose housing quantity subject to budge constraint: Y=Z+P*H+TX. TX= cost of commuting distance X Assume there is a quantity of neighborhood amenity, A, that will affect price of housing (e.g. parks, access to transportation). Assume A is negatively related to distance Given spatial equilibrium condition: Price of housing falls from center to compensate for commuting costs. Price of housing falls from center to compensate for loss of amenity.  Density falls from center

Theory: Income & Density Income can affect density in negative or positive way depending on how higher income people value amenity. If rich have high valuation for amenity, then they will outbid poor to live closer to the center. This will bid up price of housing, increasing structural density, but rich will also use their income to buy more housing.  ”Central Park Effect”: High Structural Density but Low Housing Density. Standard relationship between income and distance to center can be inverted (similar to Paris or Madrid).

Theory: Supply Housing reformers decried the fixed plot sizes of 25’ x 100’ as being bad for health and promoting excess density. They argued that building tenements on larger plots would reduce building density. This would not be true if there were constant returns to scale with building.

Theory: Supply Building housing with capital (K)--# floors, and Land (L): If we assume L is exogenously determined, then structural density—floors per acre (FAR):  if CRS,

Manhattan Amenities (hypothesized affect on density): Access to public transportation (the Els). (+) Access to parks (+) Access to high ground (+) Closeness to “paisanos” (+) Disamenities: Poor drainage (+ or -) Location-based (for jobs, retail or recreation): Distance to downtown (+) Distance to Broadway (+) Distance the rivers (+ or -). Supply: Block size (-)

Mannahatta Pre-European ecology could affect later settlement patterns in a few ways. Early lock-in: If early development creates local economies of scale and fixed-cost “lock-in”, then attractive locations in the 17 th century are likely to predict density in the early 20 th century. Locations on Manhattan favorable to early agriculture might be a predictor of later density. Location of Oak Tulip trees is important because they grow on land good for agriculture (on slopes, not too wet, not too dry). Health and disease: low-lying wetlands were breeding grounds for disease; higher elevations were more salubrious. Sewage removal was more likely to be worse in low lying areas.

Mannahatta Sanderson (2009)

Mannahatta

Els Map

Density at the Block Level

Immigration Patterns MA of density vs distance from City Hall

Results w/o Demographics

The Lower East Side

foreign

Extreme Density and Enthicity Density vs Ethnicity in LES Density vs HHI

Extreme Density and Family Size Density vs Fraction of Pop. With 6 or more people per Household on Block

Economies of Scale Results