Dwight Aakre Farm Management Specialist January 2011

Rotation Price and market outlook Marketing issues Machinery needs Profitability Risk Return over variable costs

= 100

Seedunchanged to up 30% Fertilizerup 40-75% Chemicalsflat (on average) Fuelup 20% Repairsup 5% Crop insuranceup 25-75% Rentup

Diesel3.00/gal2.50/gal Gas3.00/gal2.70/gal

Nitrogen0.48/lb0.34/lb Phosphorus0.56/lb0.32/lb Potassium0.46/lb

2011 est.2010 Corn Soybeans HRS Wheat Canola Oil Sunflower Barley

Corn Soybeans HRS Wheat Canola Oil Sunflower Barley

Limit Factor Large seeded food grade1.5 Small seeded food grade1.3 Low linolenic acid1.15 Low saturated fat1.15 High protein1.15

Limit Factor Malting 1.85 Waxy hulled 1.95 Waxy hulless 2.30 Hulless 1.20

CropAPHCoverage Level Yield Protection/ APH Price Guarantee 2011 Barley5570%$4.50$ Barley5570%$3.00$ Wheat3470%$8.00$ Wheat3470%$4.90$ Soybeans2670%$12.00$ Soybeans2670%$9.15$ Oil Sunflower130070%$0.20$ Oil Sunflower130070%$0.165$150.15

Corn Grain Drybeans Conf Sunflowers Canola Winter Wheat Spring Wheat Oil Sunflowers Durum Soybeans Malting Barley Oats Field Peas Yellow Mustard Flax Buckwheat Millet79.34

Corn Grain Conf Sunflowers Canola Drybeans Winter Wheat Oil Sunflowers Spring Wheat Durum Malting Barley Lentils Soybeans Rye Yellow Mustard Oats Buckwheat Flax Millet67.58

Spring Wheat7.13 Durum7.42 Barley4.75 Corn4.28 Soybeans11.45 Drybeans0.245 Oil Sunflowers0.197 Conf Sunflowers0.288 Canola0.22 Flax12.16 Field Peas6.30 Oats2.80 Yellow Mustard0.235 Buckwheat0.236 Millet0.075 Winter Wheat6.22 Lentils0.23 Rye4.09

Corn Grain Canola Conf Sunflowers Drybeans Winter Wheat Spring Wheat Durum Soybeans Malting Barley Oil Sunflowers Flax Field Peas Buckwheat Yellow Mustard Oats Millet120.00

Conf Sunflowers Corn Grain Canola Drybeans Soybeans Winter Wheat Lentils Malting Barley Oil Sunflowers Spring Wheat Durum Flax Yellow Mustard Buckwheat Field Peas Rye Oats Millet97.50

Canola Conf Sunflowers Flax Soybeans Malting Barley Durum Corn Grain Spring Wheat Winter Wheat Drybeans Buckwheat Oil Sunflowers Yellow Mustard Field Peas98.50 Oats64.89 Millet40.66

Conf Sunflowers Soybeans Lentils Malting Barley Canola Drybeans Corn Grain Flax Winter Wheat Oil Sunflowers Spring Wheat Buckwheat Durum Yellow Mustard Field Peas91.22 Oats55.41 Rye51.63 Millet29.92

Canola83.04 Soybeans79.27 Conf Sunflowers76.00 Flax72.24 Malting Barley63.44 Durum58.71 Spring Wheat57.20 Winter Wheat56.53 Corn42.00 Drybeans41.42 Buckwheat30.19 Yellow Mustard25.23 Oil Sunflowers23.60 Field Peas17.57 Oats(17.41) Millet(38.16)

Conf Sunflowers Soybeans Lentils91.04 Canola75.08 Malting Barley73.41 Drybeans59.92 Flax57.49 Corn52.66 Winter Wheat51.57 Oil Sunflowers42.92 Spring Wheat40.33 Buckwheat39.44 Durum37.86 Yellow Mustard29.81 Field Peas16.79 Rye(19.86) Oats(22.57) Millet(45.90)

Crop Compare (an Excel spreadsheet) available to download at:

The objective of “crop compare” is to calculate the cash price needed for other crops to yield the same return over variable costs as the base crop

All yields All variable costs Futures price and basis for base crop

Fixed costs are not included Machinery ownership Owner/operator labor Differences in management and risk are not included

Machinery Storage Labor Management Risk