Grains and oilseeds Vince O’Donnell ABARES Grains team: Henry To, James Fell and Fiona Crawford

World prices wheat corn soybean US$/t

Australian grain prices % A$/tonne Wheat APW 251 Canola 548 Malt barley % 10% Feed barley 179 Grain sorghum 205 ─ 6%

Driving the demand for grain Population growth –9.2 billion by 2050 Income growth –changing diets increased feed demand Industrial uses –Biofuels - ethanol, biodiesel

Growth in biofuels US corn

Supply side variability Stocks Production

World stocks wheat corn

World - stocks to use ratio Wheat Corn %

Supply side variability Stocks Production –Weather shocks –Varieties – GMs, drought resistance –Response to prices –Technology

Winter crop production

Russia wheat Exports Production Mt

Rapidly changing technology Production –Assisted decision making –Improved management practices Information systems –Markets –Knowledge of environment Speculation in the market

Farm cash income – by industry average per farm Crop specialists Mixed enterprise $‘000

Farm cash income – crop specialists average per farm New South Wales Western Australia $‘000

Investment on grain farms – average per farm $‘000

Managing variability Lower grain prices Understanding the market Improving productivity Investment in R&D

Grain production in Russia Barley Wheat Sunflowers Mt

Grain exports from Russia Barley Wheat Sunflowers