Looking For the Bottom Presented by: Mark M. Zandi, Chief Economist Presented by: Mark M. Zandi, Chief Economist March 31, 2009.

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Presentation transcript:

Looking For the Bottom Presented by: Mark M. Zandi, Chief Economist Presented by: Mark M. Zandi, Chief Economist March 31, 2009

2 A Very Severe Economic Downturn… Recessions since World War II

3 Expansion Recovery At Risk In Recession …From Coast-to-Coast

4 Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, $ bil Printing Money

5 Unemployment rate Fiscal Stimulus Will Shore Up the Job Market

6 Fannie/Freddie Mortgages Outstanding, $ bil, year-end ‘08 More Refinancings and Modifications On the Way

7 Projected losses on U.S. credit market instruments, $ bil At risk mortgages20,000,000 Foreclosure rate50% Foreclosed mortgages10,000,000 Loss rate50% Mortgage loss$1 trillion Residential mortgages Consumer loans Commercial mortgages Corporate The Financial Stability Plan Addresses This…

8 A Massive Global Policy Response Stimulus as a % of GDP, 2009, Source: IMF

9 Federal debt to GDP ratio under the President’s budget A Looming Fiscal Crisis Source: OMB

10 Restoring Faith Consumer confidence, 1985 = 100 Source: Conference Board

11 A Timeline to Recovery ’08q1’08q2 ’08q3’08q4’09q1’09q2 ’09q3’09q4 ’10q1’10q2 ’10q3’10q4 Stock Market Bottoms Oil Prices Peak Home Sales Bottom Housing Starts Bottom Employment Bottoms House Prices Bottom Foreclosures Peak Jobless Rate Peaks House Prices Resume Rising Major Financial Failures Abate Self Sustaining Expansion Begins Fed Tightens $ Rises

12