The Delaware Estuary Climate Ready Pilot Danielle Kreeger Science Director Priscilla Cole Science & Policy Fellow

Climate Change in a Complex Landscape Upper Watershed: “pristine” recreational area water supply for NYC Tidal River: 4th largest US urban center world’s largest freshwater port 70% of east coast oil Major industry buildup Lower Estuary: Water fowl, finfish, shellfish Horseshoe crab population DK 2 13,611 square miles

1.Likely Physical Changes 2. Example Effects on Resources Temp Salinity Sea Level Rise MarshesBivalves Storms Climate Change in the Delaware Estuary DK 3 Drinking Water

Climate Change in the Delaware Estuary Natural Resource Patterns §Disruption – species or community effects §Disconnects – de-coupled ecological interactions §Thresholds – non-linear responses §Synergisms – climate effects + other changes DK 4

Example: Species Range Shifts  DK 5 Disruptions

Opportunistic Invasive Species DK 6

Website slides are from the Delaware Shorebird Project and the Horseshoe Crab Conservation Network Decoupling of Horseshoe Crab Spawning and Shorebird Migration Disconnects (Hypothetical Example)

Smooth Response Ecosystem Response Extent of Climate Change Slide adapted from Carlos Duarte Thresholds (Non-linear Responses) Tolerance Limits Breached Unlikely Extent of Climate Change Ecosystem Response Abrupt Response Threshold Likely DK 8

§Non-linear tipping points in ecosystem status §Once breached, ”recovery” may be slow or unlikely Knowing where these tipping points are will be extremely valuable to set policy targets (Climate-driven Thresholds) Pressure Ecological Thresholds (Climate change) Slide from Carlos Duarte DK 9

Synergisms – Climate & Other Changes Together “… The interaction between climate change and habitat loss might be disastrous. During climate change, the habitat threshold occurs sooner. Similarly, species suffer more from climate change in a fragmented habitat.” DK 10

Hot Topics DredgingDredging Ecological FlowsEcological Flows WithdrawalsWithdrawals LNG TerminalLNG Terminal Horseshoe Crabs, Red KnotsHorseshoe Crabs, Red Knots Inundation, SLRInundation, SLR Emerging PollutantsEmerging Pollutants Spills, NRDASpills, NRDA Land Use ChangeLand Use Change DK 11

Complexity = Challenges DK 12

Lesson: “Restore” for the Future Forecast future sustainable states Smart “restoration” = climate adaptation DK 13 Shifts in policy and management paradigms likely to be needed

§Goal – perform a vulnerability assessment and draft adaptation plan for one or more case studies §Tasks l Vulnerability Assessment - Inventory threats to natural resources l Valuation - Assess natural goods and services that are at risk l Identify Options – List response scenarios, early warning monitoring needs l Prioritize – Rank options to safeguard or enhance resources at risk l Recommendations - Provide managers and policy-makers guidance on how to achieve greatest natural resource outcomes l Next Steps – Identify future needs such as high priority data gaps, strategies for other resources, cross-linking via ecosystem models PDE Climate Ready Pilot DK 14 Ambitious

Climate Adaptation Planning Tidal MarshesBivalve Shellfish ID Vulnerabilities Ecological Valuation Adaptation Options Recommendations and Reporting Case Studies Drinking Water DK 15

PDE Climate Ready Approach Management and Policy Climate Workgroup Case Study Subgroups Prioritization Adaptation Plan Outreach, Education, Messaging Adaptive Adaptation DK 16

Climate Adaptation Planning Tidal Wetland Sub-group Velinsky & Kreeger Shellfish Sub-group Kraeuter & Kreeger ID Vulnerabilities Ecological Valuation Adaptation Options Recommendations and Reporting Work Groups Drinking Water Sub-group Connolly Climate Adaptation Work Group (CAWG) STAC-affiliated; Co-Chairs: Najjar & Kreeger Natural Capital Team Cole $ Predications & Modeling Team Najjar DK 17

Climate Adaptation Planning Tidal Wetland Sub-group Velinsky & Kreeger Shellfish Sub-group Kraeuter & Kreeger ID Vulnerabilities Ecological Valuation Adaptation Options Recommendations and Reporting Work Groups Drinking Water Sub-group Connolly Climate Adaptation Work Group (CAWG) STAC-affiliated; Co-Chairs: Najjar & Kreeger Natural Capital Team Cole $ Predications & Modeling Team Najjar DK 18

Climate model results for the watershed of the Delaware Estuary Raymond Najjar Department of Meteorology The Pennsylvania State University May 2009 DK 19

21 st Century Climate Projections §Projections shown as changes with respect to for three future time periods: (early century) (mid century) (late century) §B1 (lower emissions) and A2 (higher emissions) scenarios are shown. §Changes shown using box-and-whisker plots, which present 14- model maximum, minimum, median, 25 th percentile, and 75 th percentile. R. Najjar, PSU – Draft not for distribution DK 20

Temperature §More warming in summer than winter §Scenario differences minor until late century R. Najjar, PSU – Draft not for distribution Annual SummerWinter DK 21

Precipitation §Annual precipitation increase §Greater increase and agreement among models in winter than summer §Less agreement among models for precipitation than temperature R. Najjar, PSU – Draft not for distribution Annual Summer Winter DK 22

Annual frost days and growing season length changes §Warmer spring and fall means fewer frost days and longer growing seasons R. Najjar, PSU – Draft not for distribution DK 23 Growing Season Frost Days

Heat Waves §All models project increases in heat waves §Large spread among models R. Najjar, PSU – Draft not for distribution DK 24 Consec. Days >100 o F Days >80 o F Days >90 o F

Summary of climate projections (Najjar) §Early-century results independent of emissions scenario - climate change is unavoidable §All models warm §Precipitation projected to increase, particularly in winter and spring §Extreme precipitation and extreme heat are projected to increase R. Najjar, PSU – Draft not for distribution DK 25

Climate Adaptation Planning Tidal MarshesBivalve Shellfish ID Vulnerabilities Ecological Valuation Adaptation Options Recommendations and Reporting Case Studies Drinking Water DK 26

Tidal Wetlands DK 27

Tidal Wetlands A Signature Trait of System Near Contiguous Band Diverse: Freshwater Tidal Marshes Brackish Marshes Salt Marshes Ecological Values: Structural biodiversity habitat for fish and wildlife nurseries for imperiled taxa Functional food web water quality flood protection Rutgers University DK 28

Estuarine / Marsh Coastal Ecosystem Tidal Freshwater Marsh Salt Marsh River Ocean Estuary Slide from Nat Weston, Villanova

Degradation DK

Angola Neck – Rehoboth Bay, DE Summer, 2006 Slide from Chris Bason (Center for Inland Bays, DE) Sudden Wetland Dieback – Marsh Browning

Freshwater Tidal Wetland Acreage Estimated < 5% remains DK 32

Tidal Wetlands Concerns: Degradation Conversion & Loss Sea level rise Canary Creek Marsh, DE DK 33

Courtesy J. Gebert, ACOE Courtesy D. Bushek, Rutgers Shoreline Erosion DK 34

DK 35

Satellite Data – Kearney and Riter Percent vegetation DK 36

Satellite Data – Kearney and Riter Percent vegetation near Philadelphia airport DK 37

Tidal Wetlands Ecological Values: Structural habitat Functional food web water quality flood protection Storms Concerns: Degradation Conversion & Loss Sea Level Rise DK 38

Living Shorelines 2008 Tidal Wetlands Concerns: Degradation Conversion and Loss Sea Level Rise Storms Sediment budget DK 39

Tidal Wetlands Adaptation Planning Goal: Maximize long-term ecosystem health and resiliency Tough Choices Where will wetlands will be converted to open water? Where can we save them ? Where is strategic retreat the best option? DK 40

Slide adapted from Michael Craghan, Rutgers Tidal marshes need to move: 1) horizontally (landward) and/or 2) vertically (to keep pace) Can they do it? Where? DK 41

Projecting the Fate of Tidal Wetlands and Their Ecosystem Services Using SLAMM Modeling - Industrial Economics Areas for Model Improvement Erosion/Accretion Rates Better Vegetation Classifications Marsh Drowning Mechanisms

DK 43 Wetland Monitoring & Assessment

1 º Service2 º Service3 º Service 4º Service Provisioning Food Fisheries Support Algae and invertebrate production Genetic MaterialsPhragmites control research Biochemical ProductsResearch in Antifungal Agents Fiber and FuelCellulose stock Regulating SequestrationCarbon Carbon Caps, mitigation Sediment Stabilization Erosion control, Meet TMDLs for sediment Storm Protection/ Wave Attenuation/ Flood Protection Protect Property Values and infrastructure Gas Regulation Carbon Sequestration Oxygen production Water QualitySequestration, Filtering TMDLs: Nutrients, Pollutants Cultural/ Spiritual/ Human Well Being RecreationBird watching, hunting, boating Spiritual and InspirationalNative American Uses Educational University reasearch & school projects/trips Aesthetic Value Landscape pictures, paintings, open space Supporting Habitat Wildlife, shellfish, insects Biodiversity Maintain Plant Communities ProductionPrimary Production Water Cycling/Hydrologic Regime Nutrient Cycling/Biogeochemical Processes Maintain trophic cycles, soil building Wetland Ecosystem Services

Climate Adaptation Planning ID Vulnerabilities Ecological Valuation Adaptation Options Recommendations and Reporting Status Tidal Wetland Sub-group Subgroup Formed Initiating Vulnerability Assessment Draft by September Late Fall Winter DK 45

Climate Adaptation Planning Tidal MarshesBivalve Shellfish ID Vulnerabilities Ecological Valuation Adaptation Options Recommendations and Reporting Case Studies Drinking Water DK 46

Bivalves of the Delaware DRBC Crassostrea virginica Elliptio complanata Geukensia demissa 11 Other Species of Freshwater Unionid Mussels Mya arenariaRangia cuneataCorbicula fluminea Mytilus edulis Ensis directus Mercenaria mercenaria DK 47

From DRBC Oyster Disease, Salinity & Climate Change From Rutgers HSRL Salt Line Location Rutgers: “A small increase in salinity over the seed beds may push the oysters past a point of no return” DK 48

Oyster Management Can they maintain (or be maintained) until they might see more optimal conditions? Longer Growing Season Intertidal Niche Expansion? Today Point of No Return No Help With Help 2 Recruitment Events Historical data from Rutgers Haskin Shellfish Laboratory DK 49

Oyster Reef Revitalization DK 50

Patchy, Impaired Extirpated Rare Lower Delaware Watershed Elliptio complanata Strophitus undulatus Alasmidonta heterodon DK 52

CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project Ecosystem Engineers DK 53

Start 8 adult mussels No mussels Slide from R. Neves, VA Tech Clean Water DK 54

Later 8 adult mussels No mussels Biofiltration Potential Slide from R. Neves, VA Tech DK 55

Delaware Bay Oysters Crassostrea virginica Brandywine River, PA Geukensia demissa Delaware Estuary Marshes Elliptio complanata Brandywine River, PA DK 56

Water Processing Potential DK 57

Oysters Marsh Mussels FW Mussels Crassostrea virginica Geukensia demissa Elliptio complanata CommercialDockside Product + Secondary Value Ecological Structural Habitat biological hot spots, bottom-binding Prey Biofiltration top-down grazing, TSS removal, light) Biogeochemistry enrichment/turnover, benthic production Shoreline Protection - nearshore reefs Shoreline Stabilization - living edges Cultural- Historical Waterman Lifestyle, Ecotourism Native American - jewelry, dietary staple Bioindicator Watershed Indicators hallmark resource status/trends Site-specific Bioassessment NS&T, caged sentinels Conservation Biodiversity fw mussels most critically impaired biota Natural Capital Value Importance of Shellfish to the Delaware Estuary Watershed DK 58

Climate Adaptation Planning ID Vulnerabilities Ecological Valuation Adaptation Options Recommendations and Reporting Status Initiated Vulnerability Assessment Draft by September Late Fall Winter DK 59 Shellfish Sub-group Underway

Climate Adaptation Planning Tidal MarshesBivalve Shellfish ID Vulnerabilities Ecological Valuation Adaptation Options Recommendations and Reporting Case Studies Drinking Water DK 60

Climate Change Will Bring:Resultant EffectsThese Effects will Impact Water Systems Through: increased precipitation (rainfall expected to increase mainly in the Northern and Eastern parts of the country) increased river discharge and stream flow 126 increased runoff 126 increased groundwater levels 126 extreme flooding changes in watershed vegetation and forest cover 16 decreased precipitation (rainfall expected to decrease mainly in the Southwest, but could be short- term periods in the East) decreased river discharge and stream flow 3679 decreased groundwater levels 3679 increased frequency of short-term drought 3689 increased number and intensity of wild fires changes in watershed vegetation and forest cover 16 increased frequency and magnitude of storms lightening and electrical disturbances 510 storm surge warmer water temperatures disruptions to aquatic ecosystems (including wetlands) 678 sea level rise thawing permafrost, reduced ice cover and snow pack, and reduction in freezing season flooding sea level rise decreased river discharge and stream flow (spring and summer) 3679 changes in watershed vegetation and forest cover 16 Leading to Issues with the Drinking Water Supply: 1erosion of infrastructure 2overflowing reservoir capacity 3decreased supply in reservoirs 4flooding of treatment plants and pump stations 5inoperable treatment plants 6 degraded water quality of source water and finished water (turbidity, dissolved oxygen, dissolved organic carbon, taste and odor compounds, dbp formation etc.) 7upward salt line movement 8 saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers and freshwater habitats 9increased demand for supply 10 power outages and issues with customer supply Warmer Temperatures & Weather Fluctuations Drinking Water Vulnerabilities to Climate Change

Climate Adaptation Planning ID Vulnerabilities Ecological Valuation Adaptation Options Recommendations and Reporting Status Underway Late Fall Winter DK 62 Drinking Water Sub-group Connolly Underway

Climate Adaptation Planning Tidal Wetland Sub-group Velinsky & Kreeger Shellfish Sub-group Kraeuter & Kreeger ID Vulnerabilities Ecological Valuation Adaptation Options Recommendations and Reporting Work Groups Drinking Water Sub-group Connolly Climate Adaptation Work Group (CAWG) STAC-affiliated; Co-Chairs: Najjar & Kreeger Natural Capital Team Cole $ Predications & Modeling Team Najjar DK 63

Which Approach to Use? Classical Economic Tools? 1 Service2 Service3 Service Provisioning FoodFisheries Support Algae and invertebrate production Fresh Water Genetic Materials Fiber and Fuel Biochemical products Regulating Nutrient Sequestration Sediment Stabilization Storm Protection/ Wave Attenuation Gas Regulation Carbon Sequestration Oxygen production Flood Protection Waste Water Treatment Water QualityWater clarity, N, P Water Supply Cultural/ Spiritual/ Human Well Being RecreationBird hunting Spiritual and Inspirational Educational Aesthetic Value Supporting Habitat Wildlife Habitat/Maintain Fauna Biodiversity Maintain Plant Communities ProductionPrimary Production Water Cycling/Hydrologic Regime Nutrient Cycling/Biogeochemical Processes

Which Approach to Use? HEA? 1 Service2 Service3 Service Provisioning FoodFisheries Support Algae and invertebrate production Fresh Water Genetic Materials Fiber and Fuel Biochemical products Regulating Nutrient Sequestration Sediment Stabilization Storm Protection/ Wave Attenuation Gas Regulation Carbon Sequestration Oxygen production Flood Protection Waste Water Treatment Water QualityWater clarity, N, P Water Supply Cultural/ Spiritual/ Human Well Being RecreationBird hunting Spiritual and Inspirational Educational Aesthetic Value Supporting Habitat Wildlife Habitat/Maintain Fauna Biodiversity Maintain Plant Communities ProductionPrimary Production Water Cycling/Hydrologic Regime Nutrient Cycling/Biogeochemical Processes

InVEST Tool 1 Service2 Service3 Service Provisioning FoodFisheries Support Algae and invertebrate production Fresh Water Genetic Materials Fiber and Fuel Biochemical products Regulating Nutrient Sequestration Sediment Stabilization Storm Protection/ Wave Attenuation Gas Regulation Carbon Sequestration Oxygen production Flood Protection Waste Water Treatment Water QualityWater clarity, N, P Water Supply Cultural/ Spiritual/ Human Well Being RecreationBird hunting Spiritual and Inspirational Educational Aesthetic Value Supporting Habitat Wildlife Habitat/Maintain Fauna Biodiversity Maintain Plant Communities ProductionPrimary Production Water Cycling/Hydrologic Regime Nutrient Cycling/Biogeochemical Processes

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