Go, go, go said the bird: human kind Cannot bear very much reality T.S. Eliot (in Burnt Norten, Four Quartets)... the problem is “not seeing what we don’t want to see” (“willful blindness”) John Casti, X-Events, 2012

Hans-Peter Plag Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: Communicating the Science about a Global Challenge Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations Expected Future Changes An Unparalled Challenge for Humanity? Global Change: The Anthropocene Communicating the Challenge Responding to the Challenge

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations IPCC, 2013

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations

Temperature, , 5 Year averages of anomly compared to

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations

Greenland Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations

Marcott et al., 2013

20th century: - global temperature: 0.7 C - global sea level: 0.2 m “Normal” variability: - global temperature: 0.2 C/century (-0.5 to 0.5) - global sea level: 1.5 m/century (-6.0 to 6.0) Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations o o

Climate change is happening: - now, for certain - everywhere, globally - rapidly - expected to get worse Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations Sea level change is happening: - now, certain - everywhere, globally - rapidly - expected to get worse

Expected Future Changes

Climate Change and Sea Level Change } IPCC t Expected Future Changes

Marcott et al., C } IPCC Assessment: Very Likely o Expected Future Changes

Modified from Church et al. (2010) Example Hampton Roads Today’s rate: 5 mm per year (about 1.5 feet in 100 years) Soon could get as high as: 20 mm per year (about 6 feet in 100 years) Expected Future Changes

“..., almost all of the cities to be studied in are cities that border the oceans of the world, and will be affected by the rise in sea levels org: 19 cities in the world with 20 million people in the 21st century An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity?

USA Australia Lovelock (and many others): - Planet is on a run-away path; could reach a warm state (5 C warmer) already in 2050 Lovelock: - Carrying capacity of the planet would be reduced to 1 Billion - Recommendation: look for the lifeboats Germany China An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity?

Are we on Titanic after it hit the iceberg? There were lifeboats for about half of the passengers, but only 1/3 made it into them - I hope, we can do better. Captain E.J. Smith: “I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder. Modern shipbuilding has gone beyond that.” An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity?

11.1% Genghis Khan An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity?

We are Reengineering the Planet... PopulationGDPCO2CH4 ExtinctionCarsDeforestation Temperature Floods Bill McKibben: Earth becomes Eaarth... Global Change: The Anthropocene

We are Reengineering the Planet... Global Change: The Anthropocene

Marcott et al., 2013 We are Reengineering the Planet...

We have moved from to back seats of the bus into the driver seat... “Has human activity over the past two centuries pushed the Earth out of the Holocene and into the Anthropocene?” James Syvitski, The Anthropocene: A transition to a new epoch? - a slowly hitting asteroid - a planetary accident - an extinction-class event Plag, 2013 Global Change: The Anthropocene

Earth is on the Edge ? Humanity as a global species is on the edge “Safe operating space for humanity” Rockstroem et al., 2009 We don’t know where the edges are, but we keep running faster and faster... (On The RunningInFog) Communicating the Challenge

Small Steps no longer make much sense... We need a fundamental change of how we are in the world... Communicating the Challenge The planet is on a path unknown to humanity...

What Could this Fundamental Change be? Griggs et al., 2013 Millennium Development Goals ( ): Mostly not reached Sustainable Development Goals ( ): Proposed, look very good... SDGs: 1 Thriving lives and livelihoods 2 Sustainable food security 3 Secure sustainable water 4 Universal clean energy 5 Healthy and productive ecosystems 6 Governance for sustainable societies Responding to the Challenge

Griggs et al., 2013 Griggs et al., 2013: Sustainable Development: “Development that meets the needs of the presence while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generation depends” Plag et al., 2013 Economy is the link between humanity and Earth’s life support system Responding to the Challenge

What Would this Fundamental Change be? 2,500 years ago: Hippocrates introduce an oath that focused medical activities on the benefit of the patients. Plag et al., 2013 We propose an “economic oath” that focusses economy on the benefit of humanity: “Participating in economic activities, I will strive to satisfy the needs of the people while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generations depends.” Sustainable Development: “Development that meets the needs of the presence while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generation depends”

Economy for humanity: “An economy that meets our needs while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generations depends.” Economy is the link between humanity and Earth’s life-support system An economy that meets our needs by burning fossil fuels and destroying Earth’s life-support system is like a doctor who practices medicine by killing the patients. Plag et al., 2013 Responding to the Challenge

“No problem can be solved with the same consciousness that created it.” Albert Einstein “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it” Upton Sinclair