The Year of the Woman? The 2010 Brazilian Elections, from President to State Assemblies. Pedro dos Santos PhD Candidate University of Kansas Junior visiting researcher Research Center and Graduate Program on the Americas (CEPPAC) UnB- Brasília, Brazil

Presentation Outline Exploring women and elections in Brazil: – The 2010 presidential election – Other elections in 2010 Senator, Chamber of Deputies, Governor, and State Assemblies – Explore Brazil´s women quota law – Investigate in detail State Assembly elections Factors influencing the election of women

The 2010 Elections Brazil elected its first female president in history (Dilma Rouseff). Institutional changes “forced” parties to field more women candidates for legislative positions. – Chamber of Deputies (National Congress) and State Assemblies. However, such changes did not translate into a significant increase of women elected to these positions.

Presidential Elections Two female candidates – Dilma Rouseff (Workers Party) -* video Dilma Rouseff (Workers Party)-* video – Marina da Silva (Green Party) Marina da Silva (Green Party)

Quick Bio: Dilma Born in Minas Gerais to a middle class family Studied economics Active in the ‘armed struggle’ against the dictatorship Worked in appointed governmental positions for over 20 years – Before elections, she was Lula´s Chief of Staff

Quick Bio: Marina Born in Acre, daughter of a rubbertapper Worked as a ‘doméstica’ in adolescence Illiterate until age 16 Friend of Chico Mendes Elected City Councilwoman in 1988 Elected Senator in 1994 Minister of Environment under Lula – Left PT to join PV after a number of problems she saw while minister

Notes on the presidential campaign Gender was not a major topic of discussion during the campaign. – Lula tried with his “Brazil´s mother” slogan, but it did not really work. Indirectly, gender played a role. – Comparisons between Dilma and Marina (too tough versus too soft) – Abortion as a major campaign issue Abortion as a major campaign issue

Dilma President Active in promoting women in positions of power. Dilma has appointed 75% more women to high level positions (primeiro e segundo escalões) than Lula She had estipulated a goal of having women as ministers in one third of the 37 available posts

Governors and Senators Women governors are rare in Brazil – Only 2 elected in 2010 (7 percent) 1 in 1994, 1 in 1998, 2 in 2002, 3 in 2006 Number of women in Congress as Senators increasing slightly – In 2011: 16 percent

Chamber of Deputies and State Assmeblies Two of the three elected positions where a quota law was implemented in quota law Since estabishment of quota law, very small progress was made in terms of women elected to these positions. My research focuses on State Assembly elections to explore women´s representation in Brazil.

Percentage of women elected to State Assemblies in Brazil 2006: 11.7% 2010: 12.8%

Research Questions Why the quota law did not amount to significant changes in the number of women elected to state legislatures in Brazil? – What impact did the 2009 law change have on the 2010 elections. Descriptive narrative of the 15 years of quota legislation in Brazil If the quota laws have not led to considerable increase in the number of women state representatives, then what factors influence the election of women in Brazil? Statistical analysis of factors influencing the election of women in the 2010 elections

Brazil Quota Laws Established in 1995 – Slight change in 1997 Calls for parties to allocate 30 percent of candidacies for all level of legislative elections – City Council (Local), State Assembly (State), and Chamber of Deputies (National) Led to a slight increase of women candidates and women elected for State Assemblies after its implementation. – Little change for the next two elections

1998: First year of quota laws for State Assembly Elections 2009: Change in the language of the law

2009 Political reform and electoral laws Before 2009 – Parties were required to allocate 30 percent of candidacies for the underrepresented gender – However, each party can field 1.5 more candidates than the number of seats available in election DM ranges from 24 to 94 Over 20 parties running in most states between 1998 and 2006 – Therefore, parties could run a ticket with no women and still be “legal” In a DM of 24, a party could have a ticket with 25 male candidates (out of 36 possible candidacies the party could run) and no women and still be following the quota law

2009 Political reform and electoral laws After 2009 – “Each party or coalition must fill a minimum of 30% (thirty percent) and a maximum of 70% (seventy percent) for candidacies of each sex” (TSE) – Parties must allocate 10 percent of their funds to the development of women candidates – Closed the “loophole” However, parties could justify if they did not reach the allocated number The result was a considerable increase in the number of candidates (from 13 percent of all candidates 2006 to 20 percent in 2010) but little impact on the number of women elected (11.7% in 2006 to 12.8% in 2010) dos Santos, Pedro (2011). "The Year of the Woman?"

So, why more women candidates but not that many more elected women? dos Santos, Pedro (2011). "The Year of the Woman?"

Candidatas Laranjas Candidatas laranjas (orange candidates), are candidates that put their name on the party list but do not actively campaign. There were a number of women in the 2010 election that admitted to be canidatas laranja.

2010 elections and factors influencing a successful bid Most studies focus on the number of women as an aggregate number, focusing on aspects influencing the election of all women. Given Brazil’s Open List Proportional Representation system, understanding factors influencing the election of one individual candidate may provide a better explanation to factors influencing women’s representation.Open List Proportional Representation system Therefore, the focus of this study is the individual candidate, and not women as a category

Closed List Versus Open List Worker’s Party (PT) 2006 Election: – Sao Paulo State 14 Diputados Elected: 4 Women (28%) *14 Women Candidates Candidate Votes Joao Paulo Cunha177,056 Arlindo Chinaglia 170,008 Antonio Palloci152,246 Jilmar Tatto145,081 Zarattini134,224 Jose Cardozo124,409 Vaccarezza118,258 Janete Pieta116,865 Paulo Teixeira112,452 Berzoini112,006 Jose Mentor104,960 Genoino98,729 Vicentinho97,477 Devanir92, Deputados Elected: 1 Woman (7%) PTMenWomen Total Candidates4810 Percentage

First Analysis Gender as an independent variable – H1: Gender negatively impacts the chances of election of a candidate Explore other factors that can influence the election of a candidate – Marital status – Candidate quality: current elected politicians – Converted political capital: “celebrity status” – Education level

Results: Does gender negatively impacts election chances? Factors Influencing Election: Personal Characteristics VariablesDV: Election=1 (Logit Estimate) BOdds Ratio Gender (Woman=1)(0.115*) Marital Status (Married=1)(0.088***) Candidate Quality (Politician=1)(0.846***) Converted Political Capital (Celebrity/Entertainer=1)(0.318**) Education Level (Coded 1 to 7)(0.0369***) Campaign Finance (Expense/1000 Voters)(0.0004***) Constant (0.249***) Pseudo R²0.288 Log Likelihood N9022 *p≤ 0.10**p≤ 0.05 ***p≤ 0.01

Second Analysis Factors influencing the election of women Personal Variables – Marital Status – Candidate Quality – Converted Political Capital – Education Level – Campaign Finance Institutional Variables – Party Ideology – Coalition Size – District Magnitude – Competition – Women running in the state – Women running in the party

Factors Influencing Election of Women: Personal Characteristics Variables DV: Election Coded 1 or 0 (Logit Estimate) B Odds Ratio Marital Status (Married=1)(0.242***) Candidate Quality (Politician=1)(0.261***) Converted Political Capital (Celebrity/Entertainer=1)(0.857*) Education Level (Coded 1 to 7)(0.123*) Campaign Finance7.09e (Expense/1000 Voters)(6.25e-07***) Constant (0.806***) Pseudo R²0.414 Log Likelihood N1641 *p≤ 0.10**p≤ 0.05 ***p≤ 0.01

Factors Influencing Election of Women: Institutional Characteristics Variables DV: Election Coded 1 or 0 (Logit Estimate) B Odds Ratio Party Ideology (Left= 1)(0.184) Parties in Coalition (0.048***) District Magnitude (0.004) Competition (0.017) Women in State (0.024*) Women in Party/Coalition (0.014) Constant (0.573**) Pseudo R² Log Likelihood N1640 *p≤ 0.10**p≤ 0.05 ***p≤ 0.01

Does gender affect campaign finance? Campaign Finance: Factors Influencing Spending VariablesDV: Expenses/1000 Voters (OLS Estimate) b(SE) Gender-0.007** Candidate Quality0.0761*** Converted Capital Education0.004*** Constant Adjusted R²0.069 F-Value168.44*** N9022 *p≤ 0.10**p≤ 0.05 ***p≤ 0.01

Interview with candidates Some interesting preliminary conclusions from interviews conducted during the 2010 elections – Not all women are in favor of the quota law. – Some candidates run knowing they will lose, but do so either to help the party or to “move up” within the party. – Party support is important in running a succesful campaign. Implies the importance of allocating funds to women candidates

Conclusions The 30 percent quota has never been strictly followed, and even after the 2009 reform that forced parties to look at the issue more carefully, did not help increase the number of elected women. In Brazil’s open list PR system, access to resources may be more important than “forcing” parties to field women candidates. Personal characteristics may be important in the election of women candidates. A further look on the interaction between personal and institutional factors can help shed light on the issue.

Conclusion and Further Research Culture is obvioulsy important too. – To encourage women to run for office and to determine if individuals will vote for a woman Further exploration of interviews and LAPOP data will help connect culture with other factors already studied.

Multimedia Sources “Dilma Rouseff” BBC. “Abortion becomes an issue in Brazil’s Presidential elections” The World. “Marina da Silva” Wikipedia. “Brazil elects female president” Democracy NOW! “Open List” Wikipedia. “Quota Law”