NCEP Production Suite Review: Land-Hydrology at NCEP

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Sustaining National Meteorological Services Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Weather Service Riverdale, MD June 18, 2013.

Advertisements

SNPP VIIRS green vegetation fraction products and application in numerical weather prediction Zhangyan Jiang 1,2, Weizhong Zheng 3,4, Junchang Ju 1,2,

Weather-Climate Linkage Dave Novak (WPC) & Jon Gottschalck (CPC) January 21,

NEMS/GFS Overview Mark Iredell, Software Team Lead.

New Directions for WRF Land Surface Modeling 1 Polar WRF Workshop – 3 November 2011 Michael Barlage Research Applications Laboratory (RAL) National Center.

Some Approaches and Issues related to ISCCP-based Land Fluxes Eric F Wood Princeton University.

1 Mike Ek, for Hendrik L. Tolman Acting Director, Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS Geoff DiMego, John Derber, Yuejian Zhu, Vijay Tallapragada, Shrinivas.

1 Application of Satellite Land Measurements in Improving NCEP Numerical Weather Prediction Weizhong Zheng, Michael Ek, Helin Wei, Jesse Meng, Jiarui Dong.

Transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 1 Evaluation of WRF Using High-Resolution Soil Initial Conditions from the NASA Land.

Andy Wood, Ted Bohn, George Thomas, Ali Akanda, Dennis P. Lettenmaier University of Washington west-wide experimental hydrologic forecast system OBJECTIVE.

1 EMC/NCO implementation Kick-off meeting, September 04, 2013 North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Version a New Implementation.

CPC’s U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook & Future Plans April 20, 2010 Brad Pugh, CPC.

1 Youlong Xia 1, Mike Ek 1, Eric Wood 2, Justin Sheffield 2, Lifeng Luo 2,7, Dennis Lettenmaier 3, Ben Livneh 3, David Mocko 4, Brian Cosgrove 5, Jesse.

Improved Land Modeling for Drought Monitoring and Seasonal Hydrological Prediction Including Groundwater Mickael Ek, Rongqian Yang, Youlong Xia, Jesse.

Application of Satellite Land Surface Observations in Improving NCEP Numerical Weather Prediction Weizhong Zheng 1,2 and Mike Ek 1 1 NOAA/NCEP/Environmental.

Updating the IOOS-NCEP- MARACOOS Interaction: The Partnership is Working! “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Dr.

NCEP Overview “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

Rongqian Yang, Ken Mitchell, Jesse Meng Impact of Different Land Models & Different Initial Land States on CFS Summer and Winter Reforecasts Acknowledgment.

The Eta Regional Climate Model: Model Development and Its Sensitivity in NAMAP Experiments to Gulf of California Sea Surface Temperature Treatment Rongqian.

2012 AAG Annual Meeting Panel Session “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Working at the Intersection of Geography.

NCA-LDAS Meeting, Sept 23, 2014 NCA-LDAS: An Integrated Terrestrial Water Analysis System for the National Climate Assessment “Water Indicators” Hiroko.

NCEP Overview “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director National Centers for Environmental.

Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration 18 January 2007 Paper 5A.4: Slide 1 American Meteorological Society 21 st Conference.

UMAC data callpage 1 of 11NLDAS EMC Operational Models North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Michael Ek Land-Hydrology Team Leader Environmental.

NCEP Status “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

Enhancing the Value of GRACE for Hydrology

NW NCNE SCSESW Rootzone: TOTAL PERCENTILEANOMALY Noah VEGETATION TYPE 2-meter Column Soil Moisture GR2/OSU LIS/Noah 01 May Climatology.

1 NCEP Production Suite Review: “Land Surface Guidance Systems” EMC Land-Hydrology Team: Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Rongqian Yang, Helin Wei, Youlong Xia,

1 Soil Moisture Assimilation in NCEP Global Forecast System Weizhong Zheng 1, Jerry Zhan 2, Jiarui Dong 1, Michael Ek 1 1 Environmental Modeling Center,

NCEP Overview Dr. James Hoke

Thrusts of Noah LSM Development and Land Data Assimilation at NCEP: recent ops upgrades, testbeds, validation, recent lessons, physics changes, calibration,

Higher Resolution Operational Models. Operational Mesoscale Model History Early: LFM, NGM (history) Eta (mainly history) MM5: Still used by some, but.

2 SMAP Applications in NOAA - Numerical Weather & Seasonal Climate Forecasting 24-Hours Ahead Atmospheric Model Forecasts Observed Rainfall 0000Z to 0400Z.

NCEP Production Suite Review: “Land Surface Guidance Systems” EMC Land-Hydrology Team: Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Rongqian Yang, Helin Wei, Youlong Xia,

Rongqian Yang, Kenneth Mitchell, Jesse Meng NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) Summer and Winter Season Reforecast Experiments with the NCEP Coupled.

Building the Future of the NWS: NCEP Product Suite Review Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Weather Service College Park, Maryland NOAA Assistant.

CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate.

The Road Not Taken Jim Yoe, JCSDA Chief Administrative Officer JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 1.

Evapotranspiration Partitioning in Land Surface Models By: Ben Livneh.

Understanding hydrologic changes: application of the VIC model Vimal Mishra Assistant Professor Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Gandhinagar

1 Transitioning Land Surface Skin Temperature and Snow Improvement to Operation at NCEP/EMC Xubin Zeng (University of Arizona, Tucson) Zhuo Wang (NESDIS)

Transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 1 Evaluation of WRF Using High-Resolution Soil Initial Conditions from the NASA Land.

Implementation and preliminary test of the unified Noah LSM in WRF F. Chen, M. Tewari, W. Wang, J. Dudhia, NCAR K. Mitchell, M. Ek, NCEP G. Gayno, J. Wegiel,

1 Future NCEP Guidance Support for Surface Transportation Stephen Lord Director, NCEP Environmental Modeling Center 26 July 2007.

1 Agenda Topic: NCEP North American Land Data Assimilation Systems, NLDAS (“Off Line Land Modeling”) Presented By: Mike Ek and Helin Wei (NWS/NCEP/EMC)

Current and Future Initialization of WRF Land States at NCEP Ken Mitchell NCEP/EMC WRF Land Working Group Workshop 18 June 2003.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center & *Environmental Modeling Center Camp Springs, MD Impact of High-Frequency Variability of Soil Moisture on Seasonal.

The lower boundary condition of the atmosphere, such as SST, soil moisture and snow cover often have a longer memory than weather itself. Land surface.

Evapotranspiration Estimates over Canada based on Observed, GR2 and NARR forcings Korolevich, V., Fernandes, R., Wang, S., Simic, A., Gong, F. Natural.

1 Progress on Science Activities: Climate Forecast Products Team Probabilistic forecasts of Extreme Events and Weather Hazards in the US (PI: Charles Jones.

Advances in Lake-Effect Process Prediction within NOAA’s Climate Forecast System for North America: A Project Progress Report Jiming Jin and Shaobo Zhang.

1 National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) Status M. Iredell and EMC Staff.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction: “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” An Overview.

Future Role of NCEP in Advancing Environmental Prediction and Decision Support 2010 MIC-HIC Conference Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director National Centers.

Initialization of the Noah Land Surface Model and its Coupling to CFS Ken Mitchell, Rongqian Yang, Jesse Meng and EMC Land Team Environmental Modeling.

Initial Results from the Diurnal Land/Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (DICE) Weizhong Zheng, Michael Ek, Ruiyu Sun, Jongil Han, Jiarui Dong and Helin Wei.

Performance Comparison of an Energy- Budget and the Temperature Index-Based (Snow-17) Snow Models at SNOTEL Stations Fan Lei, Victor Koren 2, Fekadu Moreda.

1 NCEP’s Climate Forecast System as a National Model “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” 32 nd Climate Diagnostics and Prediction.

VERIFICATION OF A DOWNSCALING SEQUENCE APPLIED TO MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL PREDICTIONS FOR GLOBAL FLOOD PREDICTION Nathalie Voisin, Andy W. Wood and.

1 Xiaoyan Jiang, Guo-Yue Niu and Zong-Liang Yang The Jackson School of Geosciences The University of Texas at Austin 03/20/2007 Feedback between the atmosphere,

1 Yun Fan, Huug van den Dool, Dag Lohmann, Ken Mitchell CPC/EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA Kunming, May, 2004.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction: An Overview “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini.

Land surface memory & hydrological cycle over the U.S. west coast states & monsoon region Yun Fan and Huug van del Dool CPC/NCEP/NOAA

Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch Ocean Waves.

HRRR Primary FAA-CoSPA NCEPESRL/GSD/AMB RAP Dev1 RAPv2 Primary HRRR Dev1 RAPv1 NCO RAP Dev2 RAP Retro HRRR Retro Retrospective Real-Time HRRR (and RAP)

Development of the Regional Arctic Climate System Model (RACM) --- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington May, 2010.

Improving the Land Surface Component of the CFS Reanalysis

Improving the Land Surface Component of the CFS Reanalysis

The Experimental Climate Prediction Center Regional Spectral Model (ECPC-RSM) Contribution to the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program.

University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System

Presentation transcript:

NCEP Production Suite Review: Land-Hydrology at NCEP Michael Ek and the EMC Land-Hydrology Team Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) NOAA/NWS NCEP Production Suite Review, 6-8 December 2011 NOAA Science Center, Camp Springs, Maryland

Land model role: Energy Budget • Noah land model closes the surface energy budget, & provides surface boundary conditions to NCEP models. seasonal storage

Land model role: Hydrological Cycle • Noah land model closes the surface water budget, & provides surface boundary conditions to NCEP models.

NCEP-NCAR unified Noah land-surface model Noah model has realistic land physics & is coupled with NCEP short-range NAM, medium-range GFS, and seasonal CFS, and run “uncoupled”, i.e. NLDAS, and GLDAS (in Climate Forecast System).

Noah Land Model Connections in NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite Climate CFS Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III 2-Way Coupled Hurricane GFDL HWRF MOM3 1.7B Obs/Day Satellites 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Global Forecast System Regional NAM WRF NMM (including NARR) Global Data Assimilation Uncoupled “NLDAS” (drought) Severe Weather Regional Data Assimilation WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast North American Ensemble Forecast System WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM Forecast Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model NAM/CMAQ NOAH Land Surface Model NCEP-NCAR unified Rapid Update for Aviation (ARW-based)

July monthly diurnal 10-m wind (m/s) Land model validation Low-level observations (e.g. 2-m temperature & humidity, 10-m winds); 10+ year data set. Additionally: upper air scores, precipitation threat & bias scores, specific flux site validation. www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/research/nearsfc/nearsfc.verf.html west 2010 east 5 4 July monthly diurnal 10-m wind (m/s) 3 3 2011 5 4 obs: solid, NAM: short-dash, GFS: long-dash 3 3 24 48 72hr 24 48 72hr 00Z Forecast Cycle

2011: NMMB & New Land Data Set • New land-use (vegetation type) data set based on MODIS used by Noah land model in NAM. Land-use type (1-km, MODIS) • Better surface representation yields better surface fluxes and temperature forecasts in NAM.

2011: CFSv2 and Land Noah replaced OSU land model in CFS (from GFS). Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS): Daily update of land states via uncoupled Noah driven by CFS assimilation cycle atmospheric forcing and blended observations+model precipitation. Reasonable soil moisture climatology, and energy & water budgets closure. Reanalysis as initial conditions for reforecasts. May Soil Moisture Climatology from 30-year NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), spun up from Noah land model coupled with CFS. 8

2012: Extend GFS upgrade to NAM Surface layer (surface roughness) modifications in GFS (Xubin Zeng et al, Univ. Arizona) in 2010. Operational: Cold bias in skin temperature (left), warm bias in air temperature (e.g. 48-hr 850mb fcst, right). GFS-GOES, 3-day mean: 1-3July2007 00z08Jul2008-00z10Nov2008 New roughness: Improved skin temperature (left), air temperature (right).

2012: North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Noah, SAC, VIC, Mosaic land models run uncoupled, driven by CPC observed precipitation and atmos. forcing from NCEP North American Regional Climate Data Assimilation System; output: 1/8-deg. land & soil states, surface fluxes, runoff & streamflow. Land model runs provide a 30-year climatology. Anomalies used for drought monitoring; supports National Integrated Drought Information System. www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas July 30-year climo. July 1988 (drought) July 1993 (flood) July 2011 NLDAS four-model ensemble monthly soil moisture anomaly

2012: New land data sets • Near realtime greenness frac. Green Vegetation Frac. (AVHRR) • Near realtime greenness frac. • LAI (Leaf Area Index) = veg. density Leaf Area Index (MODIS) June 2007 LAI GVF • MODIS snow-free albedo • MODIS max snow albedo • Better surface representation should yield better surface fluxes and T, RH, wind forecasts. • Update NAM, GFS, and other NCEP systems.

Future Land Model/Related Upgrades Important for high-res (~downscaling): Lake model & climatologies in NAM then GFS; Fire/burned area (account for surface changes); cycle land in future. Assimilation of surface quantities, e.g. soil moisture, surface temperature, snowpack, vegetation fraction. Surface layer turbulent mixing in stable conditions: affects surface fluxes and night-time temperatures. Under NEMS, unify Noah model in NCEP systems. River routing/streamflow (discharge to oceans). New Noah land model (coop. with NCAR/others): 3- layer snowpack, explicit canopy, dynamic vegetation, CO2-based transpiration, ground-water, air quality, ecosystems & biogeochemical cycles.

Physics “Wheel of Pain” Questions?