Transition Patterns & Risks of School Leavers in Europe How institutions & policies shape the integration of young people into the labour market

Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 2 Relevance for Policy and Research ► tackling youth unemployment is one issue of the European Employment Strategy several indicators (mostly based on rates & stocks) indicators according to the TLM approach ► „crisis“ of the German dual system of apprenticeship ► research gaps: ► no systematic comparison of the whole period of labour market integration ► only single events were examined (= transition from work to unemployment and vice versa)

Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 3 Research Questions ► Are there distinct labour market patterns of school leavers? ► How country-specific are they? ► Is there an impact of apprenticeships on employment history? ► What are the preconditions for labour market patterns? ► What is the impact of a particular school-to-work transition on other variables (income, unemployment risks, further training participation etc.) ► [...]

Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 4 Definitions ► population: people < 25 years ► period of labour market integration begins after leaving school ► labour market integration should be finished after 3 years ► apprenticeship  education ► „good“ integration = working at least 18 month within the first 3 years after leaving school

Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 5 Research Design 1. examine patterns 2. sort patterns 3. associate patterns to other variables Optimal Matching (Sequence Analysis) Cluster AnalysisRegression Models

Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 6 Optimal Matching – Overview ► explorative method to find differences (=distances) between sequences, e.g. employment patterns ► advantages: ► no experimental design neccessary ► analysis of heterogeneous, differentiated sequences ► no need for ex-ante-definitions ► disadvantages: ► no confirmatory method

Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 7 Optimal Matching – Technique 1. definition of replacement and insert/deletion costs 2. pairwise comparison of sequences ► minimizing transformation costs ► standardisation of sequences with different length 3. matrix with minimal pairwise distances 4. (grouping distances)

Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 8 Optimal Matching – Example replacement costs: 1 indel costs: 1 B E A T L E S S T O N E S = 7 7 / 7 = 1 B E A T L E S - S T O N E S = 5 5 / 7 = 0,71 replacement costs: 1 indel costs: 1 U U W W W W A A A A W W W W W = 7 7/9 = 0, U U W W W W A A A A W W W W W = 5 5/9 = 0,56

Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 9 Ideal Types of Sequence Clusters (Hypotheses) WU F UWUWU UK WI female WA GER

Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 10 Dataset(s) F N = 1758 E N = 1880 D N = 2093 C N = 2213 B N = 3307 A N =

Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 11 Left Censorship ► excluded are… ► …people that worked before 1993, ► (… people that started working younger than they were in 1993) ► …people who stopped education before 1993 ► …those who changed the country between

Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 12 Covariates ► micro-level factors age – gender – education – work experience – duration of UE – children ► macro-level factors ► institutional variables apprenticeship system – employment protection – low benefit coverage ► policy-related variables ALMP

Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 13 Remaining Questions/Problems ► strengths/weaknesses of indicator „labour market pattern“ ► other covariates than usual ones to explain appearance of particular patterns ► un-normal distribution of sequence number ► statuses are only one-dimensional

Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 14

Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 15 Findings ► national education and training system is linked to work experience or education as the most credential investment in job chances (Russell/O‘Connell 1993)

Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 16 Ideal Types of integration policies 1. influence on educational contents and apprenticeships ► education/training incentives; transition support 2. wage subsidies ► incentives for enterprises 3. active labour market policy

Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 17 Criteria for Successful Youth Policies 1. high share of upper secondary education 2. high quality of vocational education 3. quick transition in stable employment 4. low rates of youth unemployment 5. effective matching of young people to workplaces 6. equal chances and choices of different apprenticeships (Ryan/Büchtemann 1997)

Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 18 State of the Art ► sociological approach ► looks at processes of social structure (e.g. stratification processes, life course/employment history) ► neglects institutional change resp. its modification (institutions = independent variable) ► economic approach ► micro evaluation of ALMP programmes (effectivity & efficiency) ► qualification mismatch ► political science approach ► […]

Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 19 Methodological Aspects ► logit models ► calculation of transition risks (for certain groups, social characteristics) ► sequence analysis ► exploring transition patterns (countries, European level) ► cluster analysis ► transition regimes (risk, pattern, aggregated indicators) ► advocacy coalitions framework ► behaviour and change of actor constellations (coalitions) & policy change ► understanding of system resp. policy change