Transit Elections Successes and Failures: Lessons Learned Tim Baldwin, AICP December 8, 2003

2002 Successes and Failures        X X X X X X

2003 Successes and Failures  X    X 

Factors Influencing Success or Failure Research by: Richard Werbel, Professor of Marketing, San Jose State University

Factors Influencing Success or Failure  Identifiable congestion “ crisis ”  Business community sponsorship  Endorsement by key elected officials

Factors Influencing Success or Failure  $1 million campaign  Recent initiative experience  Support from environmental groups

Factors Influencing Success or Failure  Multiple transit modes  Includes highway funding  Benefits distributed throughout area

Factors Influencing Success or Failure  Extension of existing rail system  No problems with local transit system  Stakeholder participation in package

Factors Influencing Success or Failure  General election  Combination of direct mail and TV  Lack of effective opposition

Factors Influencing Success or Failure: 10 Elections  Those that passed (6) had no more than 3 “ negative ” factors  Those that failed (4) had 10 or more “ negative ” factors

Case Studies  Dallas Area Rapid Transit 1988 (failed 2-1)

Case Studies  Denton County TX 2002/3 (passed 3-1)

Case Studies  Denver RTD, 2004?

DART 1988 Denton County TX 2002/3 Denver RTD 2004? Identifiable congestion crisis  Business community sponsorship  - Elected officials endorsement x-   ?

DART 1988 Denton County TX 2002/3 Denver RTD 2004? $1 million campaign fund xx Recent initiative experience  x Environmental group support  ?  

DART 1988 Denton County TX 2002/3 Denver RTD 2004? Multiple transportation modes x  Includes highway funding xx Benefits throughout area x    X

DART 1988 Denton County TX 2002/3 Denver RTD 2004? Extension of existing rail system xx Transit with good local reputation xx Stakeholder help with package x    

DART 1988 Denton County TX 2002/3 Denver RTD 2004? General election date x  Combination direct mail and TV ads  x Lack of effective opposition x   ? ?

DART 1988 (failed 2-1) Denton Co. 2002/3 (passed 3-1) Denver RTD (2004?) Positive factors Negative factors Neutral or uncertain ? 4? 10?

Minimize Negative Factors to Maximize Chances for

Top 12 Lessons Learned Carl Guardino, President and CEO, Silicon Valley Manufacturing Group  Helped lead 5 winning transportation ballot measures since 1984  Generating $13 billion  California law requires 2/3 vote

Top 12 Lessons Learned 12. Names Matter; Timing is Everything  “ Taxpayers for Traffic Relief ”  General elections good; special elections bad  No relation to good or bad economy

Top 12 Lessons Learned 11. Build the Product or Buy the Product  Building a coalition is critical  Limit the opposition by embracing as many groups as possible

Top 12 Lessons Learned 10. Data or Dogma?  Surveys are vital  Test all ideas; don ’ t assume you know what the public wants

Top 12 Lessons Learned 9. Penny-wise or Pound-foolish?  You get what you pay for with consultants  Avoid “ political favors ” or “ friends ” when selecting a consultant

Top 12 Lessons Learned 8. Headlines or Headway?  “ It is amazing what you can accomplish when you don ’ t care who gets the credit. ”  “ Run silent – run deep ”

Top 12 Lessons Learned 7. Private or Public-Driven Partnership?  Private sector should lead the campaign  Taxpayer-to-taxpayer message more credible

Top 12 Lessons Learned 6. Empower or Overpower  Find a role for everyone in the coalition

Top 12 Lessons Learned 5. Watchdog or Lapdog?  Polling showed strong support for citizen watchdog committee  Listen to the voters!

Top 12 Lessons Learned 4. Fundraising  Sufficient funding is critical (at least $1 million in most metro areas)  Get up-front commitments  Run frugal campaigns emphasizing voter contact

Top 12 Lessons Learned 3. Community Outreach  Speakers Bureau  Editorial Board visits  Free media  Paid media

Top 12 Lessons Learned 2. Pros or Schmoes?  Transportation professionals developed list of projects  Political professionals determined what voters would support

Top 12 Lessons Learned 1. Deliver or Wither  Previous delivery on promises is critical for future voter approval