Center for Science in the Earth System Annual Meeting June 8, 2005 Briefing: Hydrology and water resources.

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Presentation transcript:

Center for Science in the Earth System Annual Meeting June 8, 2005 Briefing: Hydrology and water resources

1. CSES-funded projects

Hydrologic impacts of 20 th Century climate change in the western U.S.

Source: Mote et al. (2005) Trends in April 1 SWE

Relative Trend in April 1 SWE (% per year) Effects of Temp DJF AVG T (C) Source: Hamlet et al, 2005

Decadal Climate Variability Doesn’t Explain the Loss of SWE Due to Warming with Relative SWE Trends Due to Temperature Effects Alone (% per year) Source: Hamlet et al, 2005

Effects of Climate Change on Freshwater Inputs to Puget Sound

Elevation (m) Digital Elevation Model of the Puget Sound Drainage Basin at 1/8 th Degree

Current Climate2040s (+2.5 C)

Changes in (Runoff + Baseflow) to Puget Sound for Comp2040 Scenario (+ 2.5 C)

Hydrologic Data for Planning Studies Selected Studies/Models Currently Supported: ColSim (monthly) IDWR/SnakeSim (weekly) NWPCC GENESYS (split month) USBR Flathead Study (daily) Salmon River salmon impacts (daily)

Reconstructed Naturalized Weekly and Daily Flows at Palisades Dam for Streamflow (cfs) Weekly Flow Daily Flow

New data processing methods were developed to produce daily time step climate change data for USBR Flathead River study

Average July PotET over the Southern Plain Region Current Climate vs. MPI2040 scenario Current Climate MPI2040 PotET (mm/day)

Trends in July Avg PotET over the Southern Plain Region from

Regional-Scale Decision Support for Small Watershed Planning

Example: Hydrologic Summary for WRIA 38 Naches River Basin Elevation (m)

+ 2.5 °C Current Climate Changes Change in Basin Water Balance for the Naches River 2040s

Projected Changes in Streamflow Timing for the Naches River

Snake River water and climate studies

Snake River Basin Purpose: Evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on the system through 2060 and develop alternative operating strategies Research Goal: Comprehensive simulation model –SnakeSim incorporate current system operations, water rights, and surface-groundwater interactions –Accomplishments Completed simulation model incorporates flexible water rights, groundwater operations, environmental targets, and hydropower production SWE-based statistical forecasting approach developed for the determination of flood storage, water rights allocation, and fish flow requirements –The statistical forecast replaces perfect forecasting approach currently used in Bureau and State (IDWR) planning models

Snake River Basin Purpose: Evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on the system through 2060 and develop alternative operating strategies Research Goal: Comprehensive optimization model –SIRAS incorporates current system operations to optimize crop selection and irrigation, groundwater pumping practices, hydropower production, and instream flow target satisfaction –Accomplishments Completed optimization model uses an economic objective function to develop sustainable system-wide long-term operating practices Currently under development: statistical correlation of optimal operating practices to SWE, to develop new operating rules for use in SnakeSim

Results: Simulated System Impacts

2. Related projects

PNW CA Energy Transfers

Covariation of CA and PNW Hydropower from Source: Voisin et al, 2005

Predictability of PNW Surplus Hydropower as a Function of ENSO and PDO Source: Voisin et al, 2005

West-wide experimental hydrologic forecast system

Forecast System Overview

Modeling Framework Soil Moisture Initial Condition Snowpack Initial Condition

Forecast points and sample streamflow forecasts targeted statisticse.g., runoff volumes monthly hydrographs

Incorporating climate change information into the long-range planning process of Seattle Public Utilities

Techniques to Incorporate Climate Change Impacts into Seattle’s Long-Range Water Supply Planning Purpose: –Assess/develop techniques for incorporating climate change information into the long- range planning process of Seattle Public Utilities (SPU). –Demonstrate techniques by assessing potential impacts of climate change to the Seattle water supply.

Impacts of Climate Change in Seattle Trend fit to all GCM points shows a decrease of ~6 MGD per decade in the system yield. Substantial spread in the results from each GCM. Incorporating impacts and uncertainty into the planning process

Stream temperature modeling

Single reach stream temperature model (from Sridhar et al, 2004)

Stream Temperature Model Simulating continuous flow and temperature data at un-monitored locations for use as habitat parameters in salmon population model. Flow at Taylor River Temp at Taylor River

Seasonal streamflow forecasts for utilities in the Puget Sound basin

Probability of not exceeding given historic flow thresholds MONTH min 25th 50th 75th max 05/ / / / / / Ensemble predicted flows (cfs) at specified percentiles MONTH 1% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95% 99% 05/ / / / / / Graphic and tabular forecasts of streamflows into the water supply reservoirs on the Cedar, S.F. Tolt, Sultan and Green Rivers

Mid-range Forecasts for Utilities in the Puget Sound Web based delivery and distribution of pdf summary

Snohomish Utility Salmon Habitat Improvement Plan

Purpose: Examine the robustness of Chinook salmon recovery plans with the potential impacts of future climate change, climate variability, and land use changes in the Snohomish River Basin. Goal: Choose the alternatives that most improve salmon populations. SUSHI- Snohomish Utility Salmon Habitat Improvement Plan Location of the Snohomish River Basin 2001 Land Use2025 Current Path Land Use 2025 Restoration Path Land Use

SUSHI- Snohomish Utility Salmon Habitat Improvement Plan Accomplishments: –Climate model- 2 GCMs –Hydrologic model- DHSVM Model Linkages