Mobile data market overview Forecasts & Reality Dominic Schreiber, TBI

What’s there to be excited about? 1,385 million mobile subs at end-03 (Source: Global Mobile Subscriber Database)

What the forecasts say... Ovum (Aug-03): US$77.8 billion revenues from information and entertainment services globally in 2007 (traffic and content) In 2005, mobile operators will make US$22.3 bil; others US$15.5 billion. Gartner (Aug-03): US$39.7 billion, mobile data revenues, Western Europe, 2007.

What the forecasts say... Yankee Group (Feb.-04): Operator data ARPU, Western Europe, up from €4.89/mo in 2003 to nearly €10 in One-third of subs active MMS users in 2007.

What the forecasts say: video Strategy Analytics (Jan-04): 150 million mobile video users worldwide, revenues US$4.7 billion in 2008 Yankee Group: €4 billion mobile video market, Western Europe, Streamed and downloaded entertainment content lead the market in

What the forecasts say: games IDC (Dec-03): 65.2 million U.S. mobile gamers by 2008 (34.7% of all subs) Analysys (Nov-03): €3 billion mobile gaming market, Western Europe, Around 80% from downloadable games. (Total WE mobile entertainment and content market around €15.8 bil.)

Mobile entertainment revenues (US$27,463 mil. in 2008), by application

Mobile Entertainment, share of revenues (%)

Worldwide Handset Features Roadmap

Global java handsets, mil. Source: ARC, March 2004

Global camera-phones, mil. Source: ARC, mid-03

MMS handset penetration, end-03 Source: Exane

SMS per sub per month, 4Q03

Ring tone market estimates 2003 global: €3 billion (Consect, industry consensus) 2003 Europe: €1 billion 2003 UK: €50-60 million

Ring tones in Japan JASRAC* mobile-related revenues nearly doubled in the year to March 2003 ¥7.32 billion (US$ 61.2 million) from ‘wire diffusion’ (95% mobile) = 7% of total revenues Mobile takings 185% higher than JASRAC forecast *Japan collection society Source: Music & Copyright

MMS traffic/users, selected ops. Source: Mobile Media, Dec. 03

Mobile games market Sony Pictures Mobile: 4.5 million games downloads 1Q04 (U.S. top, Europe 2 nd ) Top Gun – more than 500,000 DL Anno ,00 DL on German portal Jamba by end-03 MobileScope: Games average 100,000 DL Mobile games provider Jamdat: US$1 million in revenues from BREW/month (globally) Mobile games service provider In-Fusio: profitable, 2003 revenues: €11.3 mil.; more than 1.6 mil. active players Source: Mobile Media, Mobile Games Analyst

Mobile video market Increasing number of handsets, many operators offering services Range of aggregators in the market Penetration, price 20% of DoCoMo (Japan) 3G users access video services

Mobile content market today Personalization is proven......communication is proven......but paid mobile content consumption is not!

NTT DoCoMo, Japan million i-mode online mobile data subs (total subscriber base: mil.) Content typically YEN /month (US$ ). Upper limit recently increased to YEN500 DoCoMo takes 9% of content revenues in billing charges. Estimated that DoCoMo takes 90% of total revenues for content (traffic+content charges)

But 52%...of i-mode users pay for content

i-mode usage Source: NTT DoCoMo

Some of the hurdles Technology fragmentation DRM Business models and business relationships Billing; revenue leakage Uncertain market

If you send pictures from your mobile phone, how often are they recieved, in good quality, by the recipient? Source: Mobile Media/SMS.ac 2004

Mobile Data: Typically 10-15% of mobile operator revenues. Aim: grow this to 20-25%

Music & media Mobile: Growing share of media’s interactive revenues, but very small share of total income

The big squeeze 40-50%? ? Mobile 40-50%? Media

Thank you!