1 Priorities for Tropical Cyclone Research: A NASA Senior Leader’s Perspective. Dr. Jack Kaye, Associate Director for Research Earth Science Division Science Mission Directorate NASA Headquarters Presented at Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference March 3, 2008 With thanks to Scott Braun, Ramesh Kakar, Andy Roberts, Graeme Stephens, Bjorn Lambrigtsen, Amy Walton, Steve Ambrose, Bill Lau

2 March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC NASA Hurricane Research Focus Areas Satellite remote sensing Field campaigns Numerical modeling Sensor development

3 Satellite Observations of Hurricanes TRMM Quikscat Aqua CALIPSO/CloudSat Aura GPM JASON

4 A-Train data - most importantly CloudSat information on cloud top height and vertical storm structure and MODIS brightness temperatures provide an opportunity to demonstrate and test this technique as we are now able to quantify the defining parameters in the prediction equation. The predicted storm intensity from cloudsat Independent best track data Luo et al., 2008 A-Train Use for Hurricane Studies

Heavy Rain, Floods, Landslides in Hispaniola--1 November 2007 Analyzed in Real-Time by Global Hazard System (GHS) 3-day heavy rains over 250 mm over Dominican Republic related to Hurricane Noel produces flooding (deduced by hydrologic model running globally in real- time) and landslides (estimated from real-time landslide potential algorithm) Rainfall information is from TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) Adler/Goddard Space Flight Center

Estimated Water Depth from Hydrological Model 35mm 75mm >125mm 3-Day Rainfall Madagascar Floods and Landslides 18 Feb. 2008, 15 UTC Southern Africa: Cyclone Ivan Sweeps Across Madagascar, Heads for Mozambique UN Integrated Regional Information Networks 18 February 2008 Tropical cyclone "Ivan" made its way across the Indian Ocean and slammed into Madagascar's northeastern coast on Sunday, 18 February. "We are 100 kilometres [south] from where the eye of the cyclone landed. There are very strong winds, infrastructure has been damaged, bridges have been flooded and we cannot pass. According to the BNGRC's Soa, "Ivan passed though highly populated areas and there was lots of rain. Almost all the towns where Ivan has passed are flooded now. The level of rivers and the sea is rising, and in the capital there is also risk of floods." Support from NASA Applied Sciences and Precipitation Measurement Missions (TRMM and GPM) programs

7 NRC Decadal Survey and Recommended Hurricane-Related Missions Nearest-Term Recommendations - SMAP - soil moisture - To be initiated in FY09 budget for 2012 launch - ICESat II - ice sheet thickness (et al) - TBI FY09 budget for 2015 launch - CLARREO - baseline climate/radiation mission - DESDynI - radar/lidar for deformation, vegetation et al: Longer-Term Recommendations - Hurricane Relevant Missions Mission Time Cat Description Orbit Instruments SWOT MOcean, lake, and river water levels LEO, SSOKa-band wide swath for ocean and inland water dynamicsradar, C band radar GEO-CAPE MAtmospheric gas columns for air qualityGEOHigh and low spatial forecasts; ocean color for coastal resolution hyper- ecosystem health and climate emissionsspectral imagers ACE LAerosol and cloud profiles for climate LEO/SSOBackscatter lidar, and water cycle; ocean color for open Multiangle polarimeter ocean biogeochemistryDoppler radar PATH MHigh frequency, all-weather temperature GEOMW array and humidity soundings for weather spectrometer forecasting and SST* GACM LOzone and related gases for LEO/SSOUV spectrometer intercontinental air quality and IR spectrometer stratospheric ozone layer prediction  wave limb sounder 3D-Winds LTropospheric winds for weather LEO/SSODoppler Lidar (Demo)forecasting and pollution transport

8 NASA Field Programs Program Manager: Ramesh Kakar Field programs coordinated with NOAA/Hurricane Research Division NASA DC-8NASA ER under active consideration

9 UAS Hurricane Mission 2007 Mission Review Status Mission Readiness Review completed 8/31/07 WFF King Air is the Aerosonde escort aircraft Mission documentation completed Required mission documents signed off Improving display capability in Real Time Mission Monitor (RTMM) in Google Earth Hurricane Noel 11/2/07 Flew Nov 2 from WFF Flew 17.5 hours at 500 feet from edge to eye, several vertical profiles to 5000 ft. First time this interaction data has been obtained Over 10 hours in the storm, before a controlled termination in the water Map at right shows max potential range from NASKW & WFF without overland restrictions (white circles), current operational area in Gulf of Mexico (green), and Gulf oil rig no fly zone (red) Flown jointly with the NOAA P-3 Potential FAA issue regarding interpretation of authorization to fly between Wallops and the COA issuing authority at FAA

IIP-98 APR-2 Airborne Simulator 2007 NASA TC4 Science Experiment Highlights The Airborne simulator of the Second-generation Precipitation Radar (APR-2) developed through IIP was one of the science instruments on DC-8 aircraft during the 2007 NASA TC4 (Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling) science field experiment in Costa Rica. DC-8 flight crew and experimenters in Juan Santamaria Airport DC-8 sped down the runway during the first science flight A large convective system seen from DC-8 APR-2’s controller and monitor console Real-time display of the vertical cloud and rainfall profiles measured by APR-2 One of the APR-2 science objective in TC4 was to study the cirrus anvil growth by combining its observations together with the measurements obtained by the overflighting 94-GHz radar on CloudSat. This figure is an example of several interesting datasets acquired for the investigation: the 14/35-GHz rain reflectivity and Doppler velocity profiles were obtained by APR-2 during a CloudSat overpass (the boxed region on the top panel). APR-2 35-GHz reflectivity APR-2 14-GHz reflectivity CloudSat 94-GHz reflectivity APR-2 14-GHz Doppler velocity

11 Targeted Technology Investment Pays Dividends in Science Return The ESTO IIP-1 funded High Altitude MMIC Sounding Radiometer (HAMSR) has flown as part of Fourth Convection And Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX-4), the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) mission, and the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA) Mission The Integrated Multispectral Atmospheric Sounder (IMAS) 55 GHz MMIC Radiometer The ESTO IIP-1 funded Millimeter Wave MMIC Temperature and Humidity Sensor and 183 GHz Radiometers The ESTO ACT-05 funded Low Noise Amplifier (LNA) for MMIC Radiometers Airborne Instrument Tech- nology Transition (AITT) may use HAMSR for Airborne Instrument Tech- nology Transition (AITT) may use HAMSR for future hurricane research on board the NASA Global Hawk Additional Infusions may include the Additional Infusions may include the PATH Decadal Survey Mission and the NPOESS-MIS

NEXRAD In Space (NIS) Potential Contribution of Geostationary Doppler Weather Radar to Hurricane Forecast Geostationary sensors grant shortest revisit time, but currently lack 3D and velocity information. NIS is a Ka-band geostationary Doppler radar: it would fill this gap E.Im et. al, Radar Meteorology Conference 2007 OSSE shows predicted impact on Hurricane intensity forecast skill G. Tripoli et al. American Meteorological Society 88 th Annual Meeting, 2008 Hurricane Beta, W.Lewis et al. (2008) Without NIS With NIS 3D Reflectivity only With NIS measurements With NIS 3D Doppler only Forecast Time (hours)

GeoSTAR Development History NOAA Study $100K ACT: Signal distribution $1M NMP/EO-3 Phase-A $700K JPL R&TD: GeoSTAR calibration $250K Raw synthesized image Processed image “Near Field range”, JPL GeoSTAR Target Temperature controlled pads center Absolute calibration ACT: 183-GHz MMIC development $1M Breakthrough MMIC performance IIP: GeoSTAR ptototype $3.3M Compact receivers Low-power MMICs LO phase switching system: Ultrastable operation Correlator: Efficient Redundant OK for ASICs Feedhorns: Low mutual coupling Innovative array layout All required technology elements developed & tested First images at 50 GHz by aperture synthesis IPP: MMIC development $250K NOAA Mission Study $150K PATH Mission Study $150K Design innovations Total investments so far: $7.2M JPL R&TD: MMIC development $300K MMICs embedded in waveguides

14 Summary NASA investment in hurricane research coordinates among four major areas, supporting both current science and advancement of capability for future - Satellites- Modeling - Field Campaigns (incl. UAS)- Technology Development NASA provides competitive opportunities for community to participate in programs (e.g., ROSES 2008, A.16, Hurricane Science Research - due 5/16/08) NASA cooperates closely with interagency partners in all of the above, especially in data utilization and applications NASA takes broad view of tropical cyclones and considers hurricanes as part of overall effort of global reach and impact (e.g., International Asian Monsoon Year) NASA works to communicate research results and technical capabilities to partners and public