Workshop on Planning Coordinated Research on Ecosystems, Climate, and Policy in the Northeast

First in a series of workshops hosted by ‘wet’ cooperative institutes on regional marine ecosystems. Workshop: Jan 11-13, 2005 Draft Report: Feb 15, 2005 Final Report: March 1,

Goal: determine the coordinated research needed to support better understanding of marine ecosystems in the Northeast and of the impacts of climate variability and the human population on these ecosystems. Context and background: WHOI and NEFSC work in GLOBEC Georges Bank Program; WHOI climate, ecosystems, and policy strengths; NEFSC sampling and research; growing attention to integrated observing capabilities; desire for next generation of studies; the overlap of climate and ecosystems variabilities

Annual average SST in Woods Hole and NAO Index Georges Bank groundfish stocks

Attendees: WHOIMaine Sea GrantShoals Marine Lab Mass Fisherman’s PartnershipU Mass, Boston NEFSCUSGSMBL Buzzards Bay Project Nat’l Estuary ProgramNOAA OST Stellwagen Bank Nat’l Marine SanctuaryNOAA OAR New England Fisheries Management CouncilBUMP Mass. Division of Marine FisheriesBattelle EPADartmouthDFO, Canada Maine Dept Marine ResourcesGSO, URI Maine Sea GrantU Mass, LowellUNH U Mass, DartmouthBIO, CanadaU Maine Memorial U, St John’s NFNOAA COP NOAA NMFS

Agenda Mike Sinclair, BIO - Ecosystems based management - what does it mean? Scientist/Manager Pairs WG 1 - Harmful Algal Blooms WG2 - Nutrients and Contaminants WG3 - Fisheries WG4 - Biodiversity Conservation Synthesis Groups Research Modelling Observations Education and outreach

Recommendations Assess horizons of predictability and management Establish a baseline for identifying change Develop improved predictive capabilities, using integrated ecosystems approach, considering multiple abiotic and biotic factors and assess the role of climate change in comparison to other natural and human drivers. Drive model improvement with sustained observations and comprehensive studies. Build the NE observing system, with sustained observations at key sites, broad surveys, quantification of estuarine, atmospheric, alongshore, and offshore exchanges. Comprehensive research studies to resolve high temporal and spatial variability and critical processes and build improved understanding, parameterizations and models. Develop an adaptive approach to management with research in the loop and feedback to the researchers Foster ongoing dialog across climate, ecosystems, policy and across researchers, fisherman, NOAA, and managers and other stakeholders.

Timeline Near-term 0-3 years –Start baseline assessment –Identify priority elements of NE obs system –Assess present climate and ecosystems models and develop strategy to go forward –Initiate program to assess horizons of predictability, what limits skillful prediction: b.c., parameterizations, physics, biology,… –Initiate a diverse working group to continue interaction, review progress, and improve plans 3-7 years –Complete baseline assessment –Establish sustained obs at key and reference sites; begin process studies addressing limitations to prediction –Produce and validate improved surface forcing; integrate improved forcing with improved regional atmospheric and climate models –Establish partnerships to obtain data from the boundaries (coast, open ocean, north, south) –Begin building integrated ecosystems model system, provide operational and research results to community –Institute model validation experiments, keying on intensive studies, time series at key sites, broad scale sampling, and historical data to test hindcasting

Timeline 7-15 years –Build the model system into a NE region adaptive ecosystem-based management approach, develop products sought by managers. Target decadal scale variability and longer term change as the goal of this phase. –Operate and improve NE obs system; embed it in and link to ocean, atmosphere, and land observing systems. Develop and include automated observing systems for key biological elements such as plankton, intertidal organisms, and benthos. –Carry out comprehensive studies to resolve processes, build parameterizations, and test and improve models. –Institute a 4-year cycle to document change in the physical and biological systems of the NE, the success of models (predictive and hindcast), the effectiveness of the observing system, and the success and continuing challenges of an ecosystems- based approach to management.