1 Global Model Development Priorities Presented By: Hendrik Tolman & Vijay Tallapragada (NWS/NCEP) Contributors: GCWMB (EMC), NGGPS (NWS)

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Presentation transcript:

1 Global Model Development Priorities Presented By: Hendrik Tolman & Vijay Tallapragada (NWS/NCEP) Contributors: GCWMB (EMC), NGGPS (NWS)

2 Operational System Attribute(s) System NameAcronymAreal Coverage Horz Res Cycle Freq Fcst Length (hr) Global Forecast SystemGFSGlobalT1534 L 13 km T574 L 35 km SystemAttributes GFS Global GFS Hybrid 3D-VAR Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) Data Assimilation (see Derber & Whitaker) SST Real-Time Global Sea Surface Temperature (RTG-SST) & minute SST climatology Ice IMS ice analysis from National Ice Center & minute sea ice concentration climatology Land 27 km (T574) Global Land Data Assimilation (GLDAS) Climatology Aerosols NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) System Data Assimilation or Initialization Technique

3 Why System(s) are Operational  Primary stakeholders and requirement drivers National Weather Service Operations, Various customers in the Public, Private, Academic and International organizations. Majority of the NCEP Production Suite (downstream) depends on GFS forcing  What products are the models contributing to? Atmospheric variables at standard pressure levels and surface Several post-processed fields  What product aspects are you trying to improve with your development plans? Wide range of forecast products including 500 hPa Geopotential Height Anomaly Correlation Coefficients  Top 3 System Performance Strengths Timeliness Reliability Accuracy  Top 3 System Performance Challenges More details in the NGGPS, NEMS, Nesting, GDAS Presentations Development and implementation of Unified Coupled Global Modeling System for GFS, GEFS and CFS

4 System Evolution Over the Next 5 Years  Major forcing factors NGGPS Scientific advancements, Computational Resources & System Engineering  Science and development priorities Continuous improvements in Data Assimilation and Physics in GFS NGGPS: unified global forecast system operating at convective resolving scales Unification of weekly, monthly, and seasonal forecasts  What are you top challenges to evolving the system(s) to meet stakeholder requirements? Computational resources and efficiency Retrospective and Reforecast Requirements Tighter implementation schedules for model/DA upgrades NEMS Readiness O2R2O2R….  Potential opportunities for simplification going forward NGGPS: Development of Unified Coupled Global Modeling System including atmosphere, land, ocean, ice, wave, aerosol, chemistry, ionosphere (WAM) components using NEMS infrastructure

5 Top 3 Things You Need From the UMAC 1.Endorsement of plan to continue to unify modeling superstructure and infrastructure under NOAA Environmental Modeling System and companion software infrastructure 2.Suggestions for improved O2R and R2O strategies 3.Optimal strategies for bridging the gap between high-resolution mesoscale models and the global model