US Contributions to HyMEX SOP 2, Feb-Mar, 2013 Report for THORPEX PDP WG Reading, June 17, 2012 Craig H. Bishop, Naval Research Laboratory, California, USA

Overview Brief description of HyMex, SOP 2 Attempt to obtain NSF funding for HyMeX failed (although this was primarily focused on SOP1) NRL/ONR has funded projects that have modeling components focused on HyMex There is still a small chance that Navy/CIRPAS Twin Otter Aircraft will participate.

No wave field Developed wave field Heat flux maximum Heat flux attenuated Wind/wave/current momentum budget Mistral: laboratory for air/sea/wave coupling

Mistral: laboratory for air/sea/wave interaction Key atmospheric observations – High spatio-temporal u,v,w,T,q measurements for near surface fluxes near ocean over entire swath of Mistral. (Flux capable aircraft) – Definition of top of boundary layer. (Regular air-craft soundings) – Measurements of u,v,w,T,q above boundary layer. (Balloon and aircraft). Key oceanic observations – Wave spectra (buoys, ?) and current (buoys, radar?, scatterometer winds) )at varying distances to the SSW of Nimes. – T, salinity variations defining both basin oceanic flow (pre-defined glider transects) and mixed region (adaptive glider transects)

EU SOP2 core in forwarded (ASICS-MED) document

NRL/ONR contributions Four projects with a combined value of > 1 million per year for three years are HyMeX related. – Coupled ocean-atmosphere covariances (Rowley, Coelho) – Coupled ocean-atmosphere DA (Bishop, Coelho) – Coupled regional-global DA (Bishop) – Coupled regional-global DA (Szunyogh)

Coupled Regional-Global DA HyMeX Aim to demonstrate simultaneous unified DA for global model and multiple COAMPS regions. HyMeX will facilitate this. 16 W ATL Would coupling W ATL regional DA to global DA improve forecasts for Hymex region? Would forcing large scale aspect of COAMPS ICs to be the same as global model ICs in W ATL improve COAMPS TC track forecasts?

Mean phase Errors in NOGAPS cyclone forecasts are Maximized in the Mediterranean 96 hour Forecast Verifying Analysis Recent work by Dan Hodyss and Justin Mclay Would the higher resolution COAMPS model not suffer such persistent phase shift errors?

NRL/ONR contributions Activities for SOP 2 – Running of fully coupled COAMPS ensemble system in near real time with high resolution nests over NW Med. Make key fields available via web-site. (Rowley, Coelho) – Build coupled ocean/atmosphere DA system for COAMPS in Mediterranean (aim is to use HyMeX observations to evaluate system) (Bishop, Frolov) – Build Coupled Regional/Global DA system and use it to assess whether it can enhance forecasts of moisture transport into Mediterranean. (Bishop, Szunyogh)

Possible additional ONR/NRL contributions to HyMeX Provide adaptive sampling guidance for oceanic gliders in collaboration with Pierre Testor and Joaquin Tintore (Coelho, Rowley) Flux capable Twin Otter for SOP 2. (Djamal Khelif, Qing Wang)

Djamal Khelif and Qing Wang hoping to bring Twin Otter to HyMeX, SOP2 The CIRPAS Twin Otter is instrumented to provide support to the atmospheric and ocean sciences (see separate instrument list-link). It contains a full suite of state of the art meteorological, aerosol, and cloud particles sensors, and has as well capacity for additional equipment. The Twin Otter supports individual scientists as well as teams of scientists interested in lower tropospheric phenomena. Specs The CIRPAS Twin Otter in non-pressurized turbo-prop, twin-engine aircraft: Payload Capacity: 1500 lbs. Available Payload Power: 200 Ampere of 28 VDC, or 5600 Watts, of which up to 4000 watts may be inverted to 120V AC at 60 Hz. Endurance: About 5 hours, fully loaded Practical Mission Ceiling: 18,000 feet, 12,000 feet without oxygen.

tata tata ETKF Summary map of Signal Variance S q, for many different q. Summary bar chart tvtv tvtv GoodPoor Aim: to improve a 24-hr forecast on the West Coast

ETKF targeting capability has been extended to NCOM regional ocean model

Serial adaptive sampling Many combinations and permutations of adaptive observations are available. Suppose that two sets of observations can be deployed simultaneously. First, find the optimal first deployment. Next, calculate the best second deployment given that the first set of observations are to be assimilated by the ETKF at the same time. Reduces observational redundancy.

Flight track number Serial adaptive sampling during WSR 2000

Summary HyMeX observations serve to inform and test coupled modeling/DA development in US. Key sub-areas include – Ocean-atmosphere-wave – Regional-global model – Parameterization of fluxes of heat and momentum between ocean- atmosphere-wave field. Hope to: – Bring Twin Otter to SOP 2 – Provide real-time adaptive sampling guidance to ocean gliders – Collaborate on coupled-system ensemble DA, ensemble forecasting and upstream adaptive sampling for HyMeX. – Get involved in cloud and precip assimilation/estimation