Monitoring Earth’s Climate System Current Weather Indicators of Climate Change Climatic Anomalies and Feedback Loops Observing the Climate System Remote Sensing by Satellite International Cooperation Modeling Earth’s Climate System For Next Class: Read Chapter 3

Numerical Weather Prediction We will keep a close eye on the numerical forecast models, including the Global Forecast System (GFS) model run by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ Specifically, we will look at the 850 mb temperature (equivalent to ~4750 ft asl or the top of Rich Mountain), mean sea level pressure, and quantitative precipitation forecast (850temp_mslp_precip).

Indicators of Climate Change IPCC 2013

IPCC 2013

What is the difference between Weather and Climate?

What is the difference between Weather and Climate? Weather: State of the atmosphere over the short term (minutes to ~15 days). Climate: Synthesis of weather conditions in a given area, characterized by long-term statistics (mean values, variances, probabilities of extreme values, etc.) of the meteorological elements in that area. Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get!

Defining Climate The Climatic Norm Encompasses the total variation in the climate record, that is, both averages plus extremes © AMS

Defining Climate Historical Perspectives At present, 840 automated weather stations operated by NWS and FAA 11,700 cooperative weather stations © AMS

What is the difference between Climate Variability and Climate Change? Climate Variability: deviations of climate statistics over a given period of time (e.g., specific month, season or year) from the long-term climate statistics relating to the corresponding calendar period. Climate Change: a significant change (e.g., having important economic, environmental and social effects) in the mean values of a meteorological element (e.g., temperature or precipitation) in the course of a certain period of time, where the means are taken over periods of the order of a decade or longer. Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)

The Climate System System: entity whose components interact in an orderly manner according to the laws of physics, chemistry, and biology Earth’s Climate System: defined as the totality of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and geosphere and their interactions © AMS

The Climate System Atmosphere Relatively thin envelope of gases and tiny suspended particles surrounding the planet Divided into four layers: Troposphere Stratosphere Mesosphere Thermosphere © AMS

Driving Question How do climate scientists investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of climate, climate variability and climate change? © AMS

Climatic Anomalies Departures from the long-term average Do not occur with the same sign or magnitude everywhere Positive anomalies: above long-term averages Negative anomalies: below long-term averages Westerly wave pattern exhibits changes in wavelength, amplitude, and wave number Patterns in the westerlies determine location of weather extremes © AMS

Climatic Anomalies Feedback Loops Many variables in the climate system are linked together in complex forcing/response chains Interactions between variables involve feedback loops that either amplify (positive feedback) or weaken (negative feedback) fluctuations in climate © AMS

Group Exercise Please discuss the difference between a positive and negative feedback and provide examples of each.

Climatic Anomalies Positive feedback example Negative feedback example © AMS

Observing the Climate System In Situ Measurement Radiosonde: small instrument package equipped with a radio transmitter that is carried aloft by a balloon Create soundings, or altitude readings of temperature, air pressure and dewpoint Launched at 12 hour intervals at ground stations world wide © AMS

© AMS

Radiosonde Release in Peru https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_6iQkwF9KA

Observing the Climate System In Situ Measurement Ships, buoys, floats, gliders, piloted submersibles, autonomous instrumented platforms and vehicles, and undersea observatories provide in situ ocean data © AMS

Argo floats obtain profiles of temperature and salinity in the ocean Sample plots of float-derived temperature and salinity profiles © AMS

Observing the Climate System Remote Sensing by Satellite Sensors observing Earth from orbiting spacecraft measure selected wavelengths of the electromagnetic radiation reflected or emitted by the Earth’s climate system © AMS

Observing the Climate System Remote Sensing by Satellite Electromagnetic radiation: both a form of energy and a means of energy transfer, travel as waves Electromagnetic spectrum: composed of different forms of radiation © AMS

Observing the Climate System Remote Sensing by Satellite Wavelength: distance between successive wave crests Wave Frequency: number of crests that passes a given point in a specified period of time © AMS

Observing the Climate System Remote Sensing by Satellite Satellites fly in either geostationary or polar orbits Geostationary orbit Polar orbit © AMS

Observing the Climate System Visible Satellite Image © AMS

Observing the Climate System Infrared Satellite Image © AMS

Observing the Climate System Water Vapor Satellite Image © AMS

International Cooperation in Understanding Earth’s Climate System Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Formed in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) Evaluates the state of climate science Composed of three working groups and a task force © AMS

Modeling Earth’s Climate System Model: an approximate representation or simulation of a real system, incorporating only the essential features of a system while omitting details considered non-essential or non-predictable © AMS

Modeling Earth’s Climate System Physical Model: small-scale portrayal of a system Numerical Model: consists of many mathematical equations that simulate the processes under study Numerical weather and climate forecasting done at National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) © AMS

© AMS

Modeling Earth’s Climate System © AMS

Modeling Earth’s Climate System Short-Term Climate Forecasting NCEP’s Climate Prediction Center 30-day (monthly), 90-day (seasonal), and multi-seasonal climate outlooks prepared Outlooks issued two weeks to 12.5 months in advance for the coterminous U.S., Hawaii, and other Pacific islands © AMS

Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/

Modeling Earth’s Climate System Long-Term Climate Forecasting Global Climate Model (GCM): simulates Earth’s climate system Numerical models Boundary conditions can be changed to determine how Earth adjusts to new conditions © AMS