Lab 6: Genetic Drift and Effective population size

Goals 1.To calculate the probability of fixation or loss of an allele. 2.To estimate mean time until fixation of an allele. 3.To estimate effective population size affected by past cataclysms. 4.To learn how genetic drift and selection interact in populations of various Ne.

Probability of fixation or loss 1.Genetic drift results from chance changes in allele frequencies that result from sampling of gametes from generation to generation in a finite population.

2. Exact probability of fixation of an allele is equal to the initial frequency of that allele in absence of selection. 3. Probability of fixation of an allele can be calculated empirically by using Monte Carlo simulations as implemented in Populus.

Problem 1. The frequencies of alleles A1 and A2 are p = 0.7 and q = 0.3, respectively. Use Populus to empirically estimate the probabilities of fixation and loss for each of these alleles. What do you think are the exact probabilities of fixation and loss for each allele? Do these probabilities depend on the population size?(15 minutes) Sr.## of run# of A1 loci lost# of A1 loci fixed 1I37 2II19 3III19 4IV28 5V28 6VI37 7VII46 8VIII37 9IX64 10X

Genotype counts CaseA1A1A1A2A2A Problem 2. Consider a population with the following genotype counts ( 15 minutes). a.) Use Populus to empirically estimate the mean time (in number of generations) until fixation for allele A1 b.) Show the mean time until fixation of A1 calculated using the diffusion approximation c.) Discuss the reasons for the differences (if any) between the two types of estimates. What are some of the assumptions underlying each method?

Mean time until fixation of an allele depends on population size and initial frequency of that allele. A1A1 (N11) A1A2 (N12) A2A2 (N22)NpqT(p) T(p) in terms of N N N

Case - ? Population for allele A1 # generation when locus fixed /10= 35.7

Problem 3. The census populations size of an isolated population of finches on the Galapagos islands is as follows. What is the effective population size in 2010? YearFemalesMales

When time is discontinuous, a transition matrix can be used to determine the probability of fixation in the next generation.

Genotype A1A1A1A2A2A2 Fitnessω 11 ω 12 ω 22 Fitness in terms of s and h (adaptive Darwinian selection) 1 + s1 + hs1 Fitness in terms of s and h (purifying selection) 11 − hs1 − s Using traditional setup for adaptive Darwinian (positive) selection These can be easily converted to terms for purifying selection

Problem 4. If adaptive Darwinian selection (characterized by h = 0.5 and s = 0.25) is operating on a locus and the frequency of allele A1 at that locus is p = 0.1, predict whether A1 is more likely to get lost or to become fixed: i.) In a population with N e = 10. ii.) In a population with N e = 100. a.) For each of the cases, calculate the probability of A1 fixation empirically b.) If Ne affects the probabilities of fixation and loss of A1, explain why. If not, explain why not. Genotype A1A1A1A2A2A2 Fitnessω 11 ω 12 ω 22 Fitness in terms of s and h (adaptive Darwinian selection) 1 + s1 + hs1 Fitness in terms of s and h (purifying selection) 11 − hs1 − s

Genotype A1A1A1A2A2A2 Fitnessω 11 ω 12 ω 22 Fitness under adaptive Darwinian selection Fitness under purifying selection

Problem 5. GRADUATE STUDENTS ONLY: Starting with the conditions in Problem 4-a), calculate the probability that: a.) The frequency of A1 becomes 0.1 in the next generation. b.) A1 becomes fixed in the next generation. c.) If the two transition probabilities differ dramatically, explain why. If not, explain why not.