U.S. Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School The U.S. Army’s Special Operations Center of Excellence The overall classification of this brief is: UNCLASSFIED Briefer: Type of Brief: Date: Version: NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Michael Awoyomi, CPT Dmitry Bozhanov, CPT Guy Berry, SSG Sakeena Lites, SSG Information Brief 09 May 2014 V3 - GAB Regional Stability through Egypt’s Governance

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Purpose: To inform you in the role of Egypt's governance and its effect on the stability in the Middle East and North Africa region. Agenda –Historical Background –Why Does Egypt Need Assistance? –Problem statement –Operational Variable Analysis –Economy and Infrastructure –Key Systemic Linkages –Summary –Conclusion –Questions and Comments Purpose and Agenda

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF 1948, 1967, 1973 Arab-Israel Wars –Soviet supported Egypt, US supported Israel 1979 Camp David Accord: Israel-Egypt Balance of Power –Mediated by the United States, demilitarized Sinai, brought peace to Israel –Ancillary Documents Foreign Military Financing (FMF) & Economic Support Funds (ESF) & NADR/INCLE/IMET –Does not stimulate economic growth or political change –Keeps Egypt from Soviet Union orbit 2011 “Egypt Spring” –Caused by government corruption and economical stagnation; Mubarak resigns –2012: Mohammad Morsi, first elected president of Egypt –New Constitution 2012 –Muslim Brotherhood and Islamization of Egypt July 2013: Military “Coup” –Unpopular and controversial policies, deepening economical crisis, polarizing society –Military stepped-in /Field Marshal Al-Sisi; Constitution suspended, Morsi ousted –Provisional government, presidential and parliament elections scheduled for mid-2014 –New Constitution ratified December 2013-Feruary 2014 –Started seeking contracts with Russia in 2013 Historical Background

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Economical Crisis –Budget shortage; 60% drop in Foreign Exchange Reserve (from $36B to $14B), 3% EP devaluation –Growing unemployment, high food prices, shortage of energy (80% increase) –25% below poverty, 23% just above –Bread riots 2013 Egypt-Israel Balance of Force –Large role in pacifying Gaza Strip –Contains Radical Islamist sects from waging war –Remilitarization of Sinai Sinai Insurgency (2011-present) –Bedouin groups, Radical Islamist Groups, Al-Qaeda –Operation Eagle 14 August 2011 –Operation Sinai 05 August 2012 –2013 Escalation Why Does Egypt Need Assistance?

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF The economy and statehood of Egypt will continue to suffer without a stronger United States involvement. By continuing to limit our financial aid to Egypt it will alter the vector of their international policies; paving the way for new alliances with Russia and China. This will limit United States influence in the Middle East, and is not in keeping with our National Security Strategy. In order to regain our influence in the region, we need to assist Egypt with stabilizing their government. Problem Statement

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Increase U.S intervention in the Military Sector via Military and Financial Aid, as well as partnership exercises Increase in U.S activities in the Economy Sector via Industrial and Manufacturing partnerships Opportunity Statements

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Political vacuum caused by multiple revolutions in Egypt will lead to an unpredictable “Quasi-Democracy” in Egypt. –Lack of Stable Central Government. –Power Struggle may challenge legitimacy of the Government –Increase in violence along the Sinai Peninsula The credibility of a true Democracy relies on “Majority Support” and equal opportunity during the Political Process. This has not been the Case in Egypt and may impact the status of the Egyptian Government as a true Democracy. –The Over-reaching power and role of the Egyptian Military –Strong-arm tactics used to discourage worthy opponents of FM Al- Sisi –FM Al-Sisi’s comments as related to previous Head of State Operational Variable Analysis

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF The lack of a centralized government has stopped all development and modernization on the infrastructure in Egypt –Egypt is among 8 th among countries with a scarcity of water. –Transportation and housing projects are virtually nonexistent and without the military’s industry the emergency state will continue to worsen leading to loss of life and reduced efficiency. Egypt’s economy hasn’t recovered from the revolution, should the political instability continue the economy may not recover enough to sustain the population growth –GDP growth was at 5.6 percent and slowed to one percent in the year after the Arab Spring. –In two years Egypt’s foreign reserves fell from $36BN to $14.4 BN. Economy and Infrastructure

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF If the military’s dealings gained transparency, and had to compete with private companies, the economic system would be bolstered through increased revenue and jobs. If the situation continues, Egypt’s citizens will continue to fight over resources, leading to civil war. Without U.S. intervention, other superpowers could use the vacuum to their advantage. Key Systemic Linkages

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Supporting a successful transition to democracy and economic stability in Egypt will continue to be a core objective of the National Security Strategy - Stability necessary for Democracy to emerge U.S. support can bolster Egypt’s young democratic system but needs to be tailored to Egyptian society - Do not attempt to Westernize The political and social costs of economic aid from Gulf Coast Countries could derail Egypt’s stability - Encourage investment and public/private sector investment and growth Summary

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Egypt must develop a stable political structure that can protect their minorities - Reduce unemployment to a manageable level - Advocate a major public works program U.S. promote a strong Egyptian economy and foster the growth of a democratic government -U.S. must maintain economic assistance to Egypt If economic assistance is cut, the current political situation in Egypt will destabilize Conclusion

UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Questions and Comments (Questions and Guidance, for Commanders or Ambassadors)

U.S. Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School The U.S. Army’s Special Operations Center of Excellence The overall classification of this brief is: UNCLASSFIED Briefer: Type of Brief: Date: Version: NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Michael Awoyomi, CPT Dmitry Bozhanov, CPT Guy Berry, SSG Sakeena Lites, SSG Information Brief 09 May 2014 V3 - GAB Regional Stability through Egypt’s Governance