The Sea Level Rise Story Bruno Tremblay McGill University Slide from Steven Nerem – University of Colorado.

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Presentation transcript:

The Sea Level Rise Story Bruno Tremblay McGill University Slide from Steven Nerem – University of Colorado

Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures [Hansen et al., 2005]

Observed Sea Level Rise

Observed Sea Level Rise Last 20 Kyr BP

Measuring sea level height Tidal gauge Radar altimetry

Cause of Sea Level Rise Eustatic: Water mass added. Steric: Salinity or temperature change Isostatic: Change in the level of land (e.g. thermal effect, plate tectonic, compaction effect) Withdrawal of ground water  land subsidence. Cooling of volcanic island  land subsidence.

Short Term Changes in Sea Level Diurnal-semidiurnal tides Atmospheric pressure – Winds - Evaporation- precipitations Water density and currents El Niño/southern oscillation Water mass exchange between Arctic, Atlantic, Pacific, Indian Oceans River runoff/floods Seiches Tsunamis Abrupt change in land level

Potential Sea Level Rise Glaciers: 0.5 m Greenland: 6m Antarctica West: 6m East: 51m

Potential Sea Level Change Contributions Thermal Expansion: ~1 meter Mountain Glaciers: 0.5 meters Greenland Ice Melt: 7 meters Antarctic Ice Melt: 60 meters Land Water Storage: < 0.5 meters

Recent contribution to observed sea level rise

Rhone Glacier

Alaska Mass Change from Grace

Ice Sheet Mass Balance 8 mm/yr of precip and calving at equilibrium

Greenland Ice Mass Loss from GRACE Credit: Roger Braithwaite 362 Gt = 1 mm GMSL -210 Gt/year = 0.6 mm/year GMSL

Antarctic Ice Mass Flux from InSAR SLR 0.4 to 0.6 mm/yr -114 km 3 /yr - 37 ±20 km 3 /yr +33 km 3 /yr -38 km 3 /yr +48 km 3 /yr -2 km 3 / yr +5 km 3 /yr -22 km 3 /yr -3 km 3 /yr +5 km 3 /yr -2 km 3 /yr -56 km 3 /yr -2 km 3 /yr +21 km 3 /yr -4 km 3 /yr -33 km 3 /yr -4 km 3 /yr - 49 ±20 km 3 /yr [Rignot, 2005] GRACE

Ice Sheet - Ice Shelf

Wilkins Ice Shelf Larsen B Ice Shelf

Antarctica Without Ice

Recent contribution to observed sea level rise

Sea Level Observations versus Predictions [Rahmstorf et al., 2007] Tide Gauge Observations Satellite Observations Climate Model Predictions (IPCC 3rd Assessment, 2001)

What to Expect in the Future The IPCC 4th Assessment: m by 2100 Recent study suggests higher rates ( m by 2100). [Rahmstorf, 2007] 1.4 ° 5.8 °

Greenland Ice Mass Loss Estimates Luthcke et al. [2006] Krabill et al. [2004] Zwally et al. [2005] Rignot et al. [2006] Velicogna and Wahr [2005] Ramillien et al. [2006] Chen et al. [2006] Velicogna and Wahr [2006] [Cazenave, 2006] 362 Gt = 1 mm GMSL

Antarctic Ice Mass Loss Estimates Rignot and Thomas [2002] Zwally et al. [2005] Davis et al. [2005] Velicogna and Wahr [2006] Chen et al. [2006] Ramillien et al. [2006] [Cazenave, 2006] 362 Gt = 1 mm GMSL

Effects of Sea Level Rise 1 meter 2 meters 4 meters 8 meters GFDL