Developing Bioenergy Step 1. Determine the amount of land you have available. Step 2. Using your energy consumption portfolio and your reserves, develop a Needs List. Step 3. Based on the Needs List, decide on a bioenergy plant option. Step 4. Decide on the bioenergy capacity that you wish install and determine the cost. Step 5. Calculate the Carbon Emission Reduction Credits that you will create by installing this capacity.

Developing Bioenergy Step 1. Determine the amount of land you have available. Available land = arable land – land needs for food 3,590,500 ha- 3,590,500 ha= 0 Other option? Currently use 5.8 million toe of solid biomass (7,700 MW) I have a lot of forest; > 50% of my land area (I will assume 50% for my calculations, to be conservative.). If my citizens are removing wood from ~ 40% of the land area (about 80% of the forest area), they would be harvesting at a yield of 0.33 Mg/ha (assuming a HHV of 15 MJ/kg for the dead wood they are harvesting). I need to keep my meat to veggie ratio low or I can’t feed my people without importing food. Develop new arable lands (Let’s investigate the potential.)

Developing Bioenergy Step 1. Determine the amount of land you have available. I am going to convert 6 million hectares of forest to bioenergy crops. 6 million hectares is 4.8% of total land area, or ~10% of my forest A low hybrid polar forest yield is 10 Mg/ha, so the 0.33 Mg/ha yield from my forest might actually be sustainable. I will try to keep my citizens at this sustainable wood burning level. Also, this news (that I am not really destroying my forests), tells me that I can get a bit more out of that land. SO, … 10% is a lot, and should be my maximum I better reduce my solid biomass consumption by 10% so that the yield remains constant In other my solid biomass consumption (in toe) needs to stay constant.

Developing Bioenergy Step 1. Determine the amount of land you have available. I am going to convert 6 million hectares of forest to bioenergy crops. Cost/yr = # of hectares x GDP per capita 1 hectare is a square of 100m by 100m. I am assuming that it will take 1 person 5 years to clear and cultivate a hectare of dense forest – by hand. i.e., using minimal fossil energy to do the work. I am assuming I can get a citizen to do this job if I pay him/her the average income of the rest of my population (i.e., GDP per capita) Since I have 50% unemployment and my population in 2010 is 16.6 million, I can get 6 million people to tackle this work and solve my unemployment problem. (for 5 years) 6,000,000 hectares x $1,292 = $7,754,784,324/yr OK, so I need $7.75 billion each year for 5 years to develop this forest land. I better sell some more oil. rationale (for 5 years)

Developing Bioenergy Step 2. Using your energy consumption portfolio and your reserves, develop a Needs List. NEEDS LIST 1. Home heating (biomass, methane) 2. Electricity (This NEEDS LIST will be used every time you think about developing a new energy source.)

Developing Bioenergy Step 3. Based on the Needs List, decide on a bioenergy plant option. Table 2: Summary of Power Plant Options UnitsOption 1Option 2Option 3Option 4 Sudan Grass Capital CostBillion $ (US)$4.4$5.9$4.4$1.9 Power Plant OutputMW2,7002,3502, Biogas ProductionMMBtu / hr02,30000 Ethanol Productionbbls / day00054,500 Biodiesel Productionbbls / day0000 Wheat Capital CostBillion $ (US)$3.0$4.0$1.2$2.6 Power Plant OutputMW1,8501,6001, Biogas ProductionMMBtu / hr01,55000 Ethanol Productionbbls / day0038,80074,600 Biodiesel Productionbbls / day For Sudan

Developing Bioenergy Step 4. Decide on the bioenergy capacity that you wish install and determine the cost. My GPD is only 8 billion $ Each biogas plant (assuming 50 mile radius circles) costs 6 billion $ BUT, I have oil. I sold 30 million toe to Israel and made 13 billion $ 1 % of my reserves SO, I will build 3 biogas plants (and use all 6 million hectares of converted forest). 18 billion $ 7,000 MW of electricity 5.2 million toe 7,000 MMBtu/hr of methane 1.5 million toe

Developing Bioenergy Step 5. Calculate the Carbon Emission Reduction Credits that you will create by installing this capacity. Each CER credit will be in units of 0.5 million tons of Carbon How do you generate CERs by creating new energy instead of actually reducing CO 2 emissions from an existing power generation system? The policy makers want countries to build new power generation systems that don’t emit CO2 (carbon neutral), so they want to make it possible to generate CERs by installing carbon neutral power generation systems. Therefore, they assume that any new power generation system could have been a coal-fired, so the new project CERs are calculated by assuming that the new project is replacing coal. For every toe of coal, you emit 1.08 tons of Carbon, so replacing a toe of coal (or creating a new carbon neutral power generation system) earns you a credit worth 1.08 tons of Carbon. For my example, I created million toe of new energy/yr so I just earned … 6.7 x 1.08 x 1/0.5 = 14 CERs (you can’t create a fractional CER).