The Wrong Crystal Ball Dr. Barry Blesser Blesser Associates

2 Modes of Discussion *** Who Owns the Question? *** Pattern Recognition Language Vocabulary Paradigms Theories Speculations View from 1,000 ft vs 30,000 ft.

3 Technology Business

4 Technology Paradigm Shifts WW II Technology Impacts Society You Bet Your Company Development Size is Everything Redefinition of Barriers to Entry Shortened Lifetimes of Products No Low Hanging Fruits Technology as Commodity Quality as Discardable

5 Classical Product Evolution Concept Invention Laboratory Prototype Professional Introduction Economic Manufacture Semi-Professional Consumer Model

6 Paradigm Inversion Sony-Philips on CD development $600M for First Model Goal of High Volume Immediately $12 Incremental Cost Total System Development Partial Borrowing

7 Acceleration of Life Cycles

8 Misleading Growth

9 Stages in Product Life Cycle Innovation and product productivity vary during a thread’s life-stages: Infancy Birth, rapid learning, uncertain future Adolescent Others follow trend, energetic innovation Adulthood Mature product ranges, less innovation Retirement Market for technology declines Death Only antiquities remain

10 Innovation (Practitioner View) Initially high rate of invention with few resources Resource grow, but rate of invention declines Resources decline with their related marketplace

11 Innovation (Patent View) Initially few patents, but with very wide scope Quantity of patents grows, but scope narrows Patents decline with their related marketplace

12 Spawning of Child Threads Weak threads lead to only a few narrow branches Strong threads lead to many other threads

13 Thread Life Times Some threads have longer lifetimes than others

14 Thread Transitions time Courage Market attractiveness Technology performance Hope Shock Denial Rage Action Mourning Pride Acceptance Internal/Self SteeringExternal Steering Success New threads start prior to peak technical and market performance of previous threads Thread transitions are emotional challenges

15 HiTech Commoditization Low Barrier to Entry Low Cost Similar Features-Function Many alternatives Low Margins Automated Manufacture Low Brand Loyalty

16 Cultural Business

17 Head Space Limits Total Buttons in Household Total Hidden Menus in Products Learning Time to Master Interest in Mastery Effort Personal Payback in Investment Competing Uses of Mental Effort

18 Life Style Impact Direct Substitution of Equivalent Changes Family Dynamics Competes with Other Activities Economic Competition Time Competition Viewed as Consumable

19 Business Model Cost of Development Product Life Sunk Cost for First Sale Engineering Risk Barriers to Entry Support Cost

20 Redefined Quality Metrics *** Meets Customers Expectation? *** Solves a Real Problem or Service Defects Irrelevant or Accepted Fits Reliability Model Market Sets Expectations Not a Technical Concept User Interface Burdens

21 Added Value Check List Novel Functionality Brand Name Recognition Distribution Dominance User Friendly Learning Use Specialized Technology Perceived High Value

22 Example: Home Computer High Sales Volume High Market Penetration Low Margins Packaging Business Model No Barriers to Entry Too Complex to Customize Pure Commodity

23 Example: Home Theater Dominates Listening Room Connection Impact Flawed Source Material High Cost No Technical Barriers Branded, Licensed, or Patented

24 Example: Home Network Installation Complexity Implies High Economic Cost On-site Technical Manager Large Scale Mass Acceptance vs Niche Solution DSL by Analogy

25 Analysis Methods Personal Experience Bias Decade Bias - Cultural Evolution Failure of Introspection Cultural Patterns Dominate Use Real Social-Scientists Technology is a Subset of Culture

26 Summary of Issues The Customer is Part of the Culture Cultural Drift and Patterns Anthropologic Evaluation of Society Human Limits to Introspection Technology Waves not Linear We Do Not Choose Our Decade

The Right Crystal Ball An Interdisciplinary Approach