Pathways Nebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASA and TU Wien On Behalf of Keywan Riahi

Energy Access Energy Security Climate Change The Key Energy Challenges Air Pollution Health Impacts

Energy Goal Providing universal access to affordable clean cooking and electricity for the poor Eliminating air pollution and health damages from energy use Improving energy security throughout the world Stabilizing global mean temperature at 2 o C through vigorous decarbonization Global Energy Assessment (GEA, 2012)

Energy Access (2010) People without access to electricity or clean cooking >3 billion without access to clean cooking 1.3 billion without access to electricity GEA: Chapter 19 (Pachauri et al, 2012)

Global CO2 emissions (GtCO2) GEA - Supply GEA - Mix GEA - Efficiency Global CO 2 Emissions Limiting temperature change to below 2°C Peak by 2020 reductions of 30-70% by 2050 almost zero or negative in the long term CO 2 from fossil fuels & industry GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012)

Energy Access Energy SecurityEnvironment “Technology Drive” “Environmental & Social Awareness” “Regional Diversity” GEA Scenarios & Energy Challenges Mix Efficiency Supply Sustainable Development

Energy Access Energy SecurityEnvironment “Technology Push” “Environmental & Social Awareness” “Regional Diversity” AC B Sustainable Development Very high efficiency & rapid energy intensity improvements behavioral/life-style changes, including mobility, diets toward less meat, interconnected homes, etc.. Sensitivity: 0-nuclear & 0-CCS cases Very stringent climate targets (400 ppm equ. with overshoot or 450 ppm without) Massive supply-side changes and new infrastructures Eg: H2 + very cheap CCS, nuclear and renewables Intermediary energy intensity improvement (higher demand than C) stringent climate targets (450 ppm equ. with high overshoot or 500 ppm) Heterogeneous combinations, eg C&B Different regions with different degree of fulfillment of SD criteria Rapid access and security improvements Intermediate climate targets (550 ppm equ. or 500 ppm with overshoot) and implications of delayed participation Sensitivity: implications of financial crises (transition under capital scarcity); Characteristics of Pathways

2500 GEA-Efficiency Primary Energy, EJ per year Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) Fossil CCS (optional bridging technology) Bio-CCS & negative emissions (long-term) Phase-out of oil in the long term (necessary) Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Savings Geothermal Solar Wind Efficiency & Demand-side Focus (= high flexibility for supply) ~50% renewables by 2050 GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012) GEA-Efficiency

Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Savings Geothermal Solar Wind Supply-side Focus (= high demand-side flexibility) GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012) GEA-Supply Primary Energy, EJ per year Rapid up-scaling of supply options including renewables, nuclear and CCS Modest efficiency focus GEA-Supply

In total 41 alternative pathways have been explored…

Advanced transportation Conventional transportation Transformation: Constrained Portfolio GEA Efficiency – Rapid Energy Intensity Improvement Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy Scenario data available at: Supply Side Technology Variation Demand Side Technology Variation

Scenario data available at: Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy Advanced transportation Conventional transportation Transformation: Constrained Portfolio GEA-Mix – Intermediate Energy Intensity Improvement

Primary Energy Supply [EJ/yr] Savings Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS Advanced transportation Conventional transportation Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy Scenario data available at: Transformation: Constrained Portfolio GEA Supply – Slow Energy Intensity Improvement

#15 GEA-Efficiency Industry: 1.Retrofit of existing plants 2.Best available technology for new investments 3.Optimization of energy & material flows 4.Lifecycle product design & enhanced recycling 5.Electrification incl. switch to renewable energy Industry: 1.Retrofit of existing plants 2.Best available technology for new investments 3.Optimization of energy & material flows 4.Lifecycle product design & enhanced recycling 5.Electrification incl. switch to renewable energy Global Final Energy Demand Transport Residential/Commercial Industry Residential: 1.Rapid introduction of strict building codes 2.Accelerate retrofit rate to 3% of stock per year (x 4 improvement by 2050) 3.Improved electrical appliances Residential: 1.Rapid introduction of strict building codes 2.Accelerate retrofit rate to 3% of stock per year (x 4 improvement by 2050) 3.Improved electrical appliances Transport: 1.Technology efficiency (50%) 2.Reduced private mobility (eg urban planning) 3.Infrastructure for public transport + railway freight Transport: 1.Technology efficiency (50%) 2.Reduced private mobility (eg urban planning) 3.Infrastructure for public transport + railway freight

World Energy Investments 1250 billion$ (incl. demand) in 2010 Industrialized 55% Developing 45% Upstream: Fossil Fuels 30% Electricity 40% Demand > 25% billion

Total Energy Investments Industrialized vs Developing World Developing Industrialized

Investment Portfolio – China 2010 & Today (185 bill.) No Sustainability Policies (370 bill)

2050 Today (185 bill.) No Sustainability Policies (370 bill) GEA-Supply (530 bill.) Investment Portfolio – China 2010 & 2050

Today (185 bill.) No Sustainability Policies (370 bill) GEA-Efficiency (407 bill.) Investment Portfolio – China 2010 & 2050

2050 Today (30 bill.) No Sustainability Policies (226 bill.) Investment Portfolios Sub-Saharan Africa Source: Riahi et al, 2012

GEA-Efficiency (309 bill.) 2050 Today (30 bill.) No Sustainability Policies (226 bill.) Investment Portfolios Sub-Saharan Africa Source: Riahi et al, 2012

GEA Health Assessment Present air pollution policies to 2030 GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012; Rao et al, forthcoming) World Emissions (2030) WHO health guidelines

Stringent pollution/access policies by million lives saved each year GEA Health Assessment World Emissions (2030) GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012; Rao et al, forthcoming)

Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point Energy Policy Costs (% GDP) Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012

GEA-Database