National Weather Service 1 Operational Hydrologic Forecasts Challenges at the North Central River Forecast Center 18 November 2013 First Vinogradov’s Conference St. Petersburg, Russia

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 2 Presentation Outline Review of the Forecasting Process Forecasting Centers NCRFC Highlights Forecasting the Red River Challenges Opportunities

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 3 NCRFC Forecasting Process Review of the Forecasting Process Forecasting Centers NCRFC Highlights Forecasting the Red River Challenges Opportunities

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 4 National Centers for Environmental Prediction Weather Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Aviation Weather Center Kansas City, Missouri NCEP Central Operations Storm Prediction Center Norman, Oklahoma Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado College Park, Maryland Tropical Prediction Center (National Hurricane Center) Miami, Florida

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 5 Weather Forecast Offices

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 6 River Forecast Centers

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 7 NCRFC Area of Responsibility Forecast Point Locations  426 Forecast Points  1173 Sub- watersheds Major drainages ▸ Hudson Bay ▸ Mississippi ▸ Great Lakes Hudson Bay Drainage Great Lakes Drainage Mississippi R. Drainage

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 8 Forecasting Process

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 9 Forecasting the Red River Review of the Forecasting Process Forecasting Centers NCRFC Highlights Forecasting the Red River Challenges Opportunities

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Spring Runoff Forecast

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Spring Runoff Forecast

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Spring Runoff Forecast

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Spring Runoff Forecast

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Spring Runoff Forecast

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Spring Runoff Forecast

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Spring Runoff Forecast

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 17 Red River Spring Melt Forecast: our conclusion NCRFC had the right Temperature and Precipitation forecasts from NCEP Yet, the Snow-17 and Sacramento Models greatly over- predicted the crest and the runoff volume at Fargo Why? Drought conditions during Summer and Fall: development of macropores on the clay?Drought conditions during Summer and Fall: development of macropores on the clay? Effect of subsurface drains is not included in the NWS models Effect of surface ponding is not included in the NWS models

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 18 Summary and Working Hypothesis Traditionally, the NWS models under-forecasted the Red River of the North flows during the Spring Runoff events Drought seems to be playing an important role on a watershed subject to climate extremes: (-40C to +40C) by compacting the Fargo Clay soil and creating large preferential flow paths, not modeled under the current hydrology models Heavy snow during the winter time covers the preferential flow paths and blocks rapid infiltration through them in fast-snow-melting events (1989). During slow events (2013), the soil thaws, and opens the preferential flow paths to fast infiltration. It is unknown what the effect of the tile drains is on the overall shape of the hydrograph. A major problem is to identify where the drains are, and how they are operated. Flooded fields in areas blocked by road embankments also contribute to excessive infiltration.

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 19 Presentation Outline Review of the Forecasting Process Forecasting Centers NCRFC Highlights Forecasting the Red River Challenges Opportunities

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 20 Opportunities Understand the hydrologic cycle in soils like the Fargo clay Use remote sensing techniques to identify: Location and hydrologic/hydraulic properties of tile drains/soil/crop in farms (where is the water going?) Ponded fields, volume of water and rates of release (where is the water going?) Develop new models, or adapt existing models to represent the hydrologic processes, both natural and man-made, on the Red River Watershed.

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 21 Hydrograph Model Possible Changes?

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 22 Thank you! Questions?

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 23 Hyperlinks

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 24 Red River Soil Map Courtesy Prof. David Hopkins, NDSU

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 25 Bubbles in a Flooded Field Courtesy Fargo Firefighter, via Grand Forks WFO

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 26 Infiltration Test at Campbell, MN Courtesy Roy Mayeda, Campbell HS Science Teacher

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 27 Red River Soil Profiles Courtesy Prof. David Hopkins, NDSU

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 28 Red River Soil Prismatic Columns Courtesy Prof. David Hopkins, NDSU

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 29 Fargo Clay Soil Courtesy Prof. David Hopkins, NDSU

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 30 Farm Tile Drains Question: how many miles of tile drains have been installed on the Bois de Sioux River (5.2% of the Red River above Pembina) (Hint: Fargo has 850 km of city streets and Grand Forks has about 390 km)

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 31 Courtesy Prof. David Hopkins, NDSU Tile Drain Under Construction

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 32

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 33