Unlikely Locations: Enclosed Malls, Small Markets, and Civic Prestige David J. Roelfs University of Louisville

Enclosed Mall Development: The Industry Perspective Ring Analysis: the feasibility of a proposed shopping center depends on the population size, consumer purchasing power, degree of retail competition, and site availability within the center’s prospective market/trade area On average, a sustainable mall will have 2.5 to 3.0 square feet GLA (gross leasable area) per capita Typology of shopping centers – Neighborhood centers: 0 to 99,999 sq. ft. GLA (3K – 40K population) – Community centers: 100,000 to 299,999 sq. ft. GLA (40K – 150K population) – Regional centers: 300,000 to 749,999 sq. ft. GLA (150K – 300K population) – Super regional centers: 750,000+ sq. ft. GLA (300K or more population)

Enclosed Mall Development: The Organizational Perspective Organizational Legitimacy: – the rate at which an organizational innovation spreads depends on the degree to which the viability of the innovation is taken for granted (constitutive or cognitive legitimacy) Organizational Density: – there is a non-linear relationship between the number of adopters of an organizational innovation and the likelihood that further adoptions will take place – the non-linearity of this relationship reflects the oppositional effects of legitimacy and competition

Data and Methods Statistical Method: Proportional Hazards (Cox) Regression for Repeated Events – Event: opening of a new mall or addition of an enclosed mall to an existing shopping center – Unit-of-analysis: county (proxy for the market area) – Setting: United States, including the District of Columbia, Focal Independent Variables – Population size and density – Per capita income and asset levels – Number of farms, manufacturers, wholesalers, service businesses – Number of retailers and retail sales – Number of existing malls and non-enclosed shopping centers – Shopping center legitimacy level Control Variables – Geographic region – Land area – Racial, urban/rural, age, and educational composition – National GDP – Federal Reserve Prime Interest Rate

Results

Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE

Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE Number of enclosed malls in operation

Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE Number of enclosed malls in operation Year enclosed

Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE Number of enclosed malls in operation Year enclosed Survival Duration (years)

Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE Number of enclosed malls in operation Year enclosed Survival Duration (years) Land Area (square miles)1136 K Population459.8 M76.8 K318.5K797.2 K Population Density (persons per square mile).0484 K K

Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE Number of enclosed malls in operation Year enclosed Survival Duration (years) Land Area (square miles)1136 K Population459.8 M76.8 K318.5K797.2 K Population Density (persons per square mile).0484 K K White population proportion5%100%94%88.0%14.9% Urban population proportion0%100%63%57.8%32.9%

Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE Number of enclosed malls in operation Year enclosed Survival Duration (years) Land Area (square miles)1136 K Population459.8 M76.8 K318.5K797.2 K Population Density (persons per square mile).0484 K K White population proportion5%100%94%88.0%14.9% Urban population proportion0%100%63%57.8%32.9% Median Age (years) High school graduation rate20%99%75%72.3%16.4%

Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE Number of enclosed malls in operation Year enclosed Survival Duration (years) Land Area (square miles)1136 K Population459.8 M76.8 K318.5K797.2 K Population Density (persons per square mile).0484 K K White population proportion5%100%94%88.0%14.9% Urban population proportion0%100%63%57.8%32.9% Median Age (years) High school graduation rate20%99%75%72.3%16.4% Bank deposits, per capita, inflation adjusted06.5 K Median household income, inflation adjusted9.5 K118 K49 K51 K13 K

Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE Number of enclosed malls in operation Year enclosed Survival Duration (years) Land Area (square miles)1136 K Population459.8 M76.8 K318.5K797.2 K Population Density (persons per square mile).0484 K K White population proportion5%100%94%88.0%14.9% Urban population proportion0%100%63%57.8%32.9% Median Age (years) High school graduation rate20%99%75%72.3%16.4% Bank deposits, per capita, inflation adjusted06.5 K Median household income, inflation adjusted9.5 K118 K49 K51 K13 K Number of farms08 K Number of manufacturers021 K Number of wholesalers024 K Number of service businesses0140 K K7.7 K

Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE Number of enclosed malls in operation Year enclosed Survival Duration (years) Land Area (square miles)1136 K Population459.8 M76.8 K318.5K797.2 K Population Density (persons per square mile).0484 K K White population proportion5%100%94%88.0%14.9% Urban population proportion0%100%63%57.8%32.9% Median Age (years) High school graduation rate20%99%75%72.3%16.4% Bank deposits, per capita, inflation adjusted06.5 K Median household income, inflation adjusted9.5 K118 K49 K51 K13 K Number of farms08 K Number of manufacturers021 K Number of wholesalers024 K Number of service businesses0140 K K7.7 K Number of retailers080 K K5.6 K Retail sales, per capita, inflation adjusted ($)0128 K11 K 5 K

County-level models, without fixed effects

Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Region (reference=West) East.034 Midwest.004 South -.085

Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Region (reference=West) East.034 Midwest.004 South County Level Factors Land area (unit: 10,000 sq. miles) Population size (unit: 100,000 persons) (1.00, 1.01) Change in population size (in 10% increments) (1.01, 1.04) Population density (unit: 1,000 persons per sq. mile) (1.00, 1.02)

Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Region (reference=West) East.034 Midwest.004 South County Level Factors Land area (unit: 10,000 sq. miles) Population size (unit: 100,000 persons) (1.00, 1.01) Change in population size (in 10% increments) (1.01, 1.04) Population density (unit: 1,000 persons per sq. mile) (1.00, 1.02) Percent population that is white (in 10% increments) Change in white population (in 10% increments) Urban population proportion (in 10% increments) (1.04, 1.09) Change in urban proportion (in 10% increments)

Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Region (reference=West) East.034 Midwest.004 South County Level Factors Land area (unit: 10,000 sq. miles) Population size (unit: 100,000 persons) (1.00, 1.01) Change in population size (in 10% increments) (1.01, 1.04) Population density (unit: 1,000 persons per sq. mile) (1.00, 1.02) Percent population that is white (in 10% increments) Change in white population (in 10% increments) Urban population proportion (in 10% increments) (1.04, 1.09) Change in urban proportion (in 10% increments) Median age (years) (0.98, 1.00) Change in median age (years) High school graduation rate (in 10% increments) Change in graduation rate (in 10% increments) (0.73, 0.94)

Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Region (reference=West) East.034 Midwest.004 South-.085 County Level Factors Land area (unit: 10,000 sq. miles) Population size (unit: 100,000 persons) (1.00, 1.01) Change in population size (in 10% increments) (1.01, 1.04) Population density (unit: 1,000 persons per sq. mile) (1.00, 1.02) Percent population that is white (in 10% increments) Change in white population (in 10% increments) Urban population proportion (in 10% increments) (1.04, 1.09) Change in urban proportion (in 10% increments) Median age (years) (0.98, 1.00) Change in median age (years) High school graduation rate (in 10% increments) Change in graduation rate (in 10% increments) (0.73, 0.94) Bank deposits (in $1,000,000s per capita) Change in bank deposits (in 10% increments) Median household income (in $1,000s) (1.00, 1.01) Change in median household income (in 10% increm.)

Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level (continued) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) (0.98, 0.99) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) (0.87, 0.98) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments) (0.97, 1.00) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments) Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) (1.01, 1.05) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increm.) (1.02, 1.05)

Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level (continued) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) (0.98, 0.99) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) (0.87, 0.98) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments) (0.97, 1.00) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments) Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) (1.01, 1.05) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments) (1.02, 1.05) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) (0.95, 1.00) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments) (0.93, 0.97) Retail sales (in $1,000s per capita) Change in retail sales (in 10% increments)

Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level (continued) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) (0.98, 0.99) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) (0.87, 0.98) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments) (0.97, 1.00) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments) Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) (1.01, 1.05) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments) (1.02, 1.05) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) (0.95, 1.00) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments) (0.93, 0.97) Retail sales (in $1,000s per capita) Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) Number of malls (1.23, 1.26) Number of malls, squared (1.00, 1.00)

Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level (continued) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) (0.98, 0.99) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) (0.87, 0.98) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments) (0.97, 1.00) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments) Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) (1.01, 1.05) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments) (1.02, 1.05) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) (0.95, 1.00) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments) (0.93, 0.97) Retail sales (in $1,000s per capita) Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) Number of malls (1.23, 1.26) Number of malls, squared (1.00, 1.00) National Level Factors Number of malls (in increments of 100) (0.89, 0.96) Number of malls, squared (1.00, 1.00) Number of shopping centers (in increments of 1,000) (1.14, 1.25) Number of shopping centers, squared (0.99, 1.00)

Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level (continued) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) (0.98, 0.99) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) (0.87, 0.98) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments) (0.97, 1.00) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments) Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) (1.01, 1.05) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments) (1.02, 1.05) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) (0.95, 1.00) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments) (0.93, 0.97) Retail sales (in $1,000s per capita) Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) Number of malls (1.23, 1.26) Number of malls, squared (1.00, 1.00) National Level Factors Number of malls (in increments of 100) (0.89, 0.96) Number of malls, squared (1.00, 1.00) Number of shopping centers (in increments of 1,000) (1.14, 1.25) Number of shopping centers, squared (0.99, 1.00) Shopping center legitimacy level (range: 0-1)

Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level (continued) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) (0.98, 0.99) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) (0.87, 0.98) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments) (0.97, 1.00) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments) Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) (1.01, 1.05) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments) (1.02, 1.05) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) (0.95, 1.00) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments) (0.93, 0.97) Retail sales (in $1,000s per capita) Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) Number of malls (1.23, 1.26) Number of malls, squared (1.00, 1.00) National Level Factors Number of malls (in increments of 100) (0.89, 0.96) Number of malls, squared (1.00, 1.00) Number of shopping centers (in increments of 1,000) (1.14, 1.25) Number of shopping centers, squared (0.99, 1.00) Shopping center legitimacy level (range: 0-1) GDP (in $1 Trillions) (0.53, 0.71) GDP growth rate (in 10% increments) (1.17, 1.35) Federal Reserve Prime Rate (in 1% increments)

County-level models, with fixed effects

Table 3. Cox regression with fixed effects of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) County Level Factors Land area (unit: 10,000 sq. miles) Population size (unit: 100,000 persons) Change in population size (in 10% increments) Population density (unit: 1,000 persons per sq. mile) (0.81, 0.98)

Table 3. Cox regression with fixed effects of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) County Level Factors Land area (unit: 10,000 sq. miles) Population size (unit: 100,000 persons) Change in population size (in 10% increments) Population density (unit: 1,000 persons per sq. mile) (0.81, 0.98) Percent population that is white (in 10% increments) Change in white population (in 10% increments) Urban population proportion (in 10% increments) Change in urban proportion (in 10% increments)

Table 3. Cox regression with fixed effects of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) County Level Factors Land area (unit: 10,000 sq. miles) Population size (unit: 100,000 persons) Change in population size (in 10% increments) Population density (unit: 1,000 persons per sq. mile) (0.81, 0.98) Percent population that is white (in 10% increments) Change in white population (in 10% increments) Urban population proportion (in 10% increments) Change in urban proportion (in 10% increments) Median age (years) Change in median age (years) High school graduation rate (in 10% increments) (0.66, 1.00) Change in graduation rate (in 10% increments) (0.58, 0.95)

Table 3. Cox regression with fixed effects of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) County Level Factors Land area (unit: 10,000 sq. miles) Population size (unit: 100,000 persons) Change in population size (in 10% increments) Population density (unit: 1,000 persons per sq. mile) (0.81, 0.98) Percent population that is white (in 10% increments) Change in white population (in 10% increments) Urban population proportion (in 10% increments) Change in urban proportion (in 10% increments) Median age (years) Change in median age (years) High school graduation rate (in 10% increments) (0.66, 1.00) Change in graduation rate (in 10% increments) (0.58, 0.95) Bank deposits (in $1000s per capita) Change in bank deposits (in 10% increments) Median household income (in $1,000s) (1.01, 1.03) Change in median household income (in 10% increments)

Table 3. Multiple event history analyses with fixed effects (cont.) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) (0.94, 0.97) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) (0.37, 0.60) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments) Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments) (1.01, 1.04)

Table 3. Multiple event history analyses with fixed effects (cont.) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) (0.94, 0.97) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) (0.37, 0.60) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments) Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments) (1.01, 1.04) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) (0.85, 0.95) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments) Retail sales (in $1000s per capita) Change in retail sales (in 10% increments)

Table 3. Multiple event history analyses with fixed effects (cont.) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) (0.94, 0.97) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) (0.37, 0.60) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments) Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments) (1.01, 1.04) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) (0.85, 0.95) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments) Retail sales (in $1000s per capita) Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) Number of malls (1.13, 1.20) Number of malls, squared (1.00, 1.00)

Table 3. Multiple event history analyses with fixed effects (cont.) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) (0.94, 0.97) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) (0.37, 0.60) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments) Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments) (1.01, 1.04) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) (0.85, 0.95) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments) Retail sales (in $1000s per capita) Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) Number of malls (1.13, 1.20) Number of malls, squared (1.00, 1.00) National Level Factors Number of malls (in increments of 100) (0.98, 1.10) Number of malls, squared (1.00, 1.00) Number of shopping centers (in increments of 1,000) (1.05, 1.19) Number of shopping centers, squared (1.00, 1.00)

Table 3. Multiple event history analyses with fixed effects (cont.) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) (0.94, 0.97) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) (0.37, 0.60) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments) Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments) (1.01, 1.04) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) (0.85, 0.95) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments) Retail sales (in $1000s per capita) Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) Number of malls (1.13, 1.20) Number of malls, squared (1.00, 1.00) National Level Factors Number of malls (in increments of 100) (0.98, 1.10) Number of malls, squared (1.00, 1.00) Number of shopping centers (in increments of 1,000) (1.05, 1.19) Number of shopping centers, squared (1.00, 1.00) Shopping center legitimacy level (range: 0-1)

Table 3. Multiple event history analyses with fixed effects (cont.) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) (0.94, 0.97) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) (0.37, 0.60) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments) Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments) (1.01, 1.04) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) (0.85, 0.95) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments) Retail sales (in $1000s per capita) Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) Number of malls (1.13, 1.20) Number of malls, squared (1.00, 1.00) National Level Factors Number of malls (in increments of 100) (0.98, 1.10) Number of malls, squared (1.00, 1.00) Number of shopping centers (in increments of 1,000) (1.05, 1.19) Number of shopping centers, squared (1.00, 1.00) Shopping center legitimacy level (range: 0-1) GDP (in $1 Trillions) (0.51, 0.74) GDP growth rate (in 10% increments) (1.07, 1.30) Federal Reserve Prime Rate (in 1% increments)

Conclusions Competition operates locally while symbiosis (including legitimacy) operates supra-locally

Conclusions Competition operates locally while symbiosis (including legitimacy) operates supra-locally Legitimacy trends have little impact at the local level mall development decision, though it has an important impact at the state level

Conclusions Competition operates locally while symbiosis (including legitimacy) operates supra-locally Legitimacy trends have little impact at the local level mall development decision, though it has an important impact at the state level Evidence suggests that density does not simultaneously reflect the opposing forces of legitimacy and competition

Conclusions Competition operates locally while symbiosis (including legitimacy) operates supra-locally Legitimacy trends have little impact at the local level mall development decision, though it has an important impact at the state level Evidence suggests that density does not simultaneously reflect the opposing forces of legitimacy and competition The evidence suggests mall development is affected by factors other than economic rationality

Conclusions Competition operates locally while symbiosis (including legitimacy) operates supra-locally Legitimacy trends have little impact at the local level mall development decision, though it has an important impact at the state level Evidence suggests that density does not simultaneously reflect the opposing forces of legitimacy and competition The evidence suggests mall development is affected by factors other than economic rationality – The industry factors thought to dominate the mall development decision had little impact

Conclusions Competition operates locally while symbiosis (including legitimacy) operates supra-locally Legitimacy trends have little impact at the local level mall development decision, though it has an important impact at the state level Evidence suggests that density does not simultaneously reflect the opposing forces of legitimacy and competition The evidence suggests mall development is affected by factors other than economic rationality – The industry factors thought to dominate the mall development decision had little impact 9.3% of the 3,977 enclosed malls built in counties with 40,000 or fewer people 12.4% built in counties with 50,000 or fewer people 28.1% built in counties with 100,000 or fewer people 37.5% of 3,977 enclosed malls built in counties with 150,00 or fewer people

Conclusions Competition operates locally while symbiosis (including legitimacy) operates supra-locally Legitimacy trends have little impact at the local level mall development decision, though it has an important impact at the state level Evidence suggests that density does not simultaneously reflect the opposing forces of legitimacy and competition The evidence suggests mall development is affected by factors other than economic rationality – The industry factors thought to dominate the mall development decision had little impact 9.3% of the 3,977 enclosed malls built in counties with 40,000 or fewer people 12.4% built in counties with 50,000 or fewer people 28.1% built in counties with 100,000 or fewer people 37.5% of 3,977 enclosed malls built in counties with 150,00 or fewer people – There is evidence of contagion at both the county and the state level

Thank You

Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE Number of enclosed malls in operation Year enclosed Survival Duration (years) Land Area (square miles)1136 K Population459.8 M76.8 K318.5K797.2 K Population Density (persons per square mile).0484 K K White population proportion5%100%94%88.0%14.9% Urban population proportion0%100%63%57.8%32.9% Median Age (years) High school graduation rate20%99%75%72.3%16.4% Bank deposits, per capita, inflation adjusted06.5 K Median household income, inflation adjusted9.5 K118 K49 K51 K13 K Number of farms08 K Number of manufacturers021 K Number of wholesalers024 K Number of service businesses0140 K K7.7 K Number of retailers080 K K5.6 K Retail sales, per capita, inflation adjusted ($)0128 K11 K 5 K

Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Region (reference=West) East.034 Midwest.004 South-.085 County Level Factors Land area (unit: 10,000 sq. miles) Population size (unit: 100,000 persons) (1.00, 1.01) Change in population size (in 10% increments) (1.01, 1.04) Population density (unit: 1,000 persons per sq. mile) (1.00, 1.02) Percent population that is white (in 10% increments) Change in white population (in 10% increments) Urban population proportion (in 10% increments) (1.04, 1.09) Change in urban proportion (in 10% increments) Median age (years) (0.98, 1.00) Change in median age (years) High school graduation rate (in 10% increments) Change in graduation rate (in 10% increments) (0.73, 0.94) Bank deposits (in $1,000,000s per capita) Change in bank deposits (in 10% increments) Median household income (in $1,000s) (1.00, 1.01) Change in median household income (in 10% increments)

Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level (continued) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) (0.98, 0.99) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) (0.87, 0.98) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments) (0.97, 1.00) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments) Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) (1.01, 1.05) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments) (1.02, 1.05) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) (0.95, 1.00) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments) (0.93, 0.97) Retail sales (in $1,000s per capita) Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) Number of malls (1.23, 1.26) Number of malls, squared (1.00, 1.00) National Level Factors Number of malls (in increments of 100) (0.89, 0.96) Number of malls, squared (1.00, 1.00) Number of shopping centers (in increments of 1,000) (1.14, 1.25) Number of shopping centers, squared (0.99, 1.00) Shopping center legitimacy level (range: 0-1) GDP (in $1 Trillions) (0.53, 0.71) GDP growth rate (in 10% increments) (1.17, 1.35) Federal Reserve Prime Rate (in 1% increments)

Table 3. Cox regression with fixed effects of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) County Level Factors Land area (unit: 10,000 sq. miles) Population size (unit: 100,000 persons) Change in population size (in 10% increments) Population density (unit: 1,000 persons per sq. mile) (0.81, 0.98) Percent population that is white (in 10% increments) Change in white population (in 10% increments) Urban population proportion (in 10% increments) Change in urban proportion (in 10% increments) Median age (years) Change in median age (years) High school graduation rate (in 10% increments) (0.66, 1.00) Change in graduation rate (in 10% increments) (0.58, 0.95) Bank deposits (in $1000s per capita) Change in bank deposits (in 10% increments) Median household income (in $1,000s) (1.01, 1.03) Change in median household income (in 10% increments)

Table 3. Multiple event history analyses with fixed effects (cont.) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) (0.94, 0.97) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) (0.37, 0.60) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments) Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments) (1.01, 1.04) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) (0.85, 0.95) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments) Retail sales (in $1000s per capita) Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) Number of malls (1.13, 1.20) Number of malls, squared (1.00, 1.00) National Level Factors Number of malls (in increments of 100) (0.98, 1.10) Number of malls, squared (1.00, 1.00) Number of shopping centers (in increments of 1,000) (1.05, 1.19) Number of shopping centers, squared (1.00, 1.00) Shopping center legitimacy level (range: 0-1) GDP (in $1 Trillions) (0.51, 0.74) GDP growth rate (in 10% increments) (1.07, 1.30) Federal Reserve Prime Rate (in 1% increments)