B Y D ESIGN Outperform in 2004 and Beyond Credit Suisse First Boston 2004 Insurance Seminar.

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Presentation transcript:

B Y D ESIGN Outperform in 2004 and Beyond Credit Suisse First Boston 2004 Insurance Seminar

2 Nasdaq:CINF Today’s presentation contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our various filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission for factors that could cause results to materially differ from those discussed. Reconciliations of non-GAAP and non-statutory data are available at

3 Structured for Strength and Stability 19 th largest publicly traded insurer based on revenues 30 th largest property casualty insurer by premium volume Market capitalization of $7 billion (3/16/2004) Strong growth and underwriting profit in 2002 and 2003 Well capitalized and highly rated

4 Enhancing Return to Shareholders Philosophy leads to long-term shareholder value 11.3% 10-year compound growth in paid dividends 10.0% increase in 2004 indicated annualized cash dividend –44 th consecutive increase 5% stock dividend declared

5 Focus on Shareholder Value * See the Operations section of the Investors page of for non-GAAP and non-statutory reconciliation information.

6 Outperform in 2004 and Beyond Generate strong growth and above-average profitability by leveraging regional franchise and proven agency-centered business strategy Obtain strong investment income growth and capital appreciation through equity-focused investment strategy Maintain financial strength

B Y D ESIGN Leverage Regional Franchise and Proven Agency-centered Business Strategy J.F. Scherer Senior Vice President Sales & Marketing

8 At Home on Main Street Regional carrier –Main Street property casualty business –963 local independent insurance agencies in 31 states –Market for about 75% of agency’s typical risks –Approximately 90% of property casualty policies less than $10,000 premium Agents in Main Street markets place value on claims service, market stability, access to executives –CIC was No. 1 or No. 2 carrier in 71% of agency locations in 2002

9 Market for 75% of Agency’s Typical Risks Commercial Lines 69% Property Casualty Personal Lines 27% 2003 Net Earned Premium Consolidated $2.749 Billion Property Casualty $2.653 Billion

10 Serving Select Group of 963 Independent Agencies in 31 States Headquarters (no branches) Actively Marketing

11 Opportunities for Continued Strong Property Casualty Premium Growth Room to grow in marketplace Continue to subdivide territories to improve service Increase penetration of each agency’s business Selectively appoint new agencies * See the Operations section of the Investors page of for non-GAAP and non-statutory reconciliation information. Net Written Premium Growth

12 Potential in the Marketplace 2002 Statutory Direct Written Premiums (Dollars in millions) Cincinnati Total P/C Industry Cincinnati Market Penetration Ohio$ 651$ 16, % Illinois , Indiana 221 8, Pennsylvania , Michigan , Georgia , All Active States$ 2,894$ 247,3591.2

13 Improving Service – Subdividing Territories, Adding Local Staff 87 territories at year-end 2003 from 70 at year-end 1998 Considering six new territories for ,112 local marketing, claims and other staff from 860 five years ago Dollars in millions Commercial Premiums per Territory

14 Successful Agencies Agency Direct Written Premiums (Dollars in millions) Agency Relationships Cincinnati$2,449$2,135 Total Agency P/C$13,263$11,585 Cincinnati Agency Penetration18.0%18.4%

15 Selectively Appoint New Agencies Tap growth opportunities within existing states –Familiar turf Maintain franchise value Investigate stagnant areas 28 new agency relationships in appointments projected 2004–2006

16 Life Insurance Opportunities Diversify revenue stream for property casualty agencies Expand product portfolio to meet needs of agency clients Add stable business that reduces impact of property casualty cycles

17 Further Improvement Balancing Growth with Profitability Anticipate FY 2004 statutory combined ratio of approximately 94.5% –Assumes catastrophe losses in 3% to 3.5% range Leverage local knowledge/underwriting Maintain low-cost structure Post-dividend statutory combined ratio * See the Operations section of the Investors page of for non-GAAP and non-statutory reconciliation information.

18 Commercial Lines – 69% of Premiums 10.8% net earned premium growth in % statutory combined ratio * in 2003 Business lines: –Commercial multi-peril –Workers’ compensation –Commercial auto –Other liability * See the Operations section of the Investors page of for non-GAAP and non-statutory reconciliation information. Post-dividend statutory combined ratio

19 Personal Lines – 27% of Premiums 11.2% net earned premium growth in % statutory combined ratio * in 2003 Business lines: –Personal auto –Homeowner Post-dividend statutory combined ratio * See the Operations section of the Investors page of for non-GAAP and non-statutory reconciliation information.

20 Focus on Homeowner Targeting quarterly loss and loss expense ratio in 72% to 74% range by the end of 2005 Improve profitability through: –Rate changes –Insurance-to-value –Changes in policy terms and conditions – water damage, others –Re-underwriting programs

B Y D ESIGN Equity-focused Investment Strategy Michael R. Abrams Assistant Vice President Investments

22 Equity-focused Investment Strategy Portfolio Goals: Growth and Income Growth Long-term investment horizon Increases surplus Enhances book value and financial strength Primarily achieved with common and convertible securities Income Achieved with interest and dividends Bond quality rising; municipals, agency paper Large, long-term positions in proven, dividend-paying companies Reinvest coupon payments Compounding

23 Investment Portfolio – Equity-focused $6.293 billion in unrealized appreciation $607 million in net new invested assets in 2003 Focus on equity-linked securities and high- quality fixed income with intermediate maturities Book Value: $6.156 billion Market Value: $ billion At December 31, 2003 Common Stocks Investment-Grade Bonds High-Yield Bonds Municipal Bonds Convertible Securities

24 Investment Philosophy: Bonds Focus on cash-flow yield Compounding interest on cash flows Diversity of holdings Taxable bonds –Investment-grade (agency/corporate) –High-yield Tax-exempt –Municipal bonds

25 Investment Philosophy: Convertible Securities Hybrid security with fixed income and equity characteristics Equity-like returns with bond-like risks –Stable income stream –Potential for capital appreciation associated with underlying common stock –Downside protection Favorable risk-based capital treatment

26 Investment Philosophy: Common Stocks Focus on equities –With the ability and commitment to grow earnings and dividends Buy companies that have –Strong and proven management teams –Clean balance sheets –Understandable product –Favorable outlook Purchase at reasonable levels (value) Invest long term

27 Core Equity Holdings Source: Bloomberg L.P. as of December 31, 2003 Holdings (Dollars in millions) CostMarket Value Dividend Increases Earned Dividend Income P/E Fifth Third$283$4, %$ ALLTEL National City ExxonMobil Corp P&G Wyeth PNC First Merit Merck US Bancorp Sky Financial Group Piedmont Natural Gas Wells Fargo & Company Johnson & Johnson Alliance Capital

28 Focus on Compounding of Cash Flows Over the Long-term Investment income provides primary source of profits –2003 dividend increases from 29 of 51 = $16 million in annualized investment income Surplus contributes to financial strength Drives book value growth Based on pro forma data. See Investors, Operations for reconciliation information.

B Y D ESIGN Maintain Financial Strength Kenneth W. Stecher Chief Financial Officer

30 Maintain Financial Strength Property casualty surplus ratio of 1.0-to-1 vs. industry average 1.3-to-1 (12/31/03) Only 1.9% of property casualty companies rated A++ by A.M. Best Senior Debentures Property Casualty Life A.M. BestAaA++A+ FitchA+AA Moody’sA2Aa3-- S&PA+AA-

31 Balance Sheet and Risk Management High-quality investment portfolio Loss reserve adequacy Low-risk reinsurance recoverables Strong cash flow and liquidity –Modest indebtedness of $603 million or 9.7% of shareholders’ equity –Unchanged from prior year Effective oversight

32 Total Statutory Reserve Balance Objective: Modestly Redundant Reserves Property Casualty In millions

33 Statutory Property Casualty Reinsurance Recoverables to Policyholder Surplus Data from A.M. Best, 2003

34 Strong Cash Flow and Liquidity In millions

B Y D ESIGN Conclusion Credit Suisse First Boston 2004 Insurance Seminar

36 A Look Ahead – Our View Outperform in 2004 –High single-digit written premium growth –95% GAAP combined ratio –3.5% to 4.5% investment income growth And beyond –Sustain steady growth –Further improve combined ratio –Accelerate investment income growth –Bring results to bottom line –Equity portfolio performance ahead of S&P 500 – resumption of book value growth

B Y D ESIGN Cincinnati Financial Corporation Credit Suisse First Boston 2004 Insurance Seminar