© UKCIP 2006 Chris West, Director, UK Climate Impacts Programme UKCIP08 Scenarios, Climate Change Impacts in Scotland, and Adapting to the Impacts Sustainable Development Commission for Scotland, 29 October 2008, Edinburgh

© UKCIP 2006 CCIRG91 CCIRG96UKCIP98UKCIP02UKCIP08UKCIPNext Scenarios Background UK climate scenarios produced since 1991 UKCIP published climate scenarios in 1998 and 2002 Each became more detailed, building upon: improved scientific knowledge & computing power stakeholder requirements Each represented best science at that time

© UKCIP 2006 Uses of Climate Models Climate model Predictions ProjectionsForecasts Grounding in reality Huge set of assumptions Acknowledgement of uncertainties Understanding Testing against data

© UKCIP 2006 Uses of Climate Models Climate model Predictions ProjectionsForecasts Grounding in reality Huge set of assumptions Acknowledge all uncertainties Understanding Testing against data

© UKCIP 2006 What Users wanted from UKCIP08 Improved consideration and quantification of associated uncertainties – probabilistic What users wanted in UKCIP08 information Improved spatial and temporal detail Improved accessibility (dedicated online user interface) More information about climate change in the marine environment

© UKCIP 2006 ? VERY UNLIKELY LIKELY VERY UNLIKELY X Some climate variable Probability

© UKCIP km grid Pre-defined areas Administrative River basins Observed climate datasets including daily max and min temperature Weather Generator to provide statistical expressions of future daily conditions consistent with the climate projections More time periods Greater spatial & temporal detail

© UKCIP 2006 Components of UKCIP08 Probabilistic climate projections Information on future climate, provided in probabilistic terms Probabilistic climate projections Information on future climate, provided in probabilistic terms Historical climate information Information on present UK climate and recent trends, based on observations Historical climate information Information on present UK climate and recent trends, based on observations Marine projections Information on modelled future changes below the surface of sea areas around UK Marine projections Information on modelled future changes below the surface of sea areas around UK

© UKCIP 2006 UKCIP08 products A set of high-level headline messages will give a national overview of the main changes described by UKCIP08 Reports including: User guidance Climate trends Probabilistic changes of climate Marine Projections Summary Report Pre-prepared maps and graphs Individual maps, probabilistic plots (PDFs, CDFs), plume diagrams, etc Customised data products such as GIS-format files and sampled projections to input into impact models It will also provide access to an integrated Weather Generator The UKCIP08 User Interface will allow users to create:

© UKCIP 2006 Supporting the use of UKCIP08 Training Have completed a series of awareness workshops; training material on our website Post-launch training events – big programme of familiarisation and learning workshops and e-learning support – watch this space! Worked examples Set up using dummy data for now; currently being reviewed – will be updated once real data is available

© UKCIP 2006 UKCIP and UKCIP08 UKCIP is the UK Climate Impacts Programme UKCIP08 are the climate scenarios, published by UKCIP More information is available at UKCIPs Scenarios Gateway UKCIP08 will be launched in the Spring

© UKCIP 2006 Rainfall and rain days

© UKCIP 2006 Trend in total rainfall

© UKCIP 2006 Trend in rain days

© UKCIP 2006 Mean temperature mean rise

© UKCIP 2006 Impacts in Scotland Not all negative – some opportunities Opportunities may need work to be realised Impacts being discovered now Persisting uncertainties Reactive adaptation pathways needed

© UKCIP 2006 Climate Change Human Beings Mitigation Adaptation Causation Impacts

© UKCIP 2006 Climate change responses Not alternatives! Response:MitigateAdapt Resembles:Public healthMedical treatment Benefit:Global, deferredLocal, immediate Concept:EasyHard Slope:IncreasesEases

© UKCIP 2006 Balanced responses 1.The climate change we expect in the next years will be due to our past greenhouse gas emissions. 2.Climate change later this century is being determined by the emissions we allow now. 3.We need to alter our way of life so that we can both: adapt to the changes that are already in the climate system…. limit our future greenhouse gas emissions.

© UKCIP 2006 Need for a balance between…. Mitigation&Adaptation Present vulnerability&Future impacts Changes in extremes&Steady climate change Climate information&System information predict, optimise, relax&assess, hedge, review

© UKCIP 2006 Present Climate Are we well-adapted to the present? Is perfect adaptation possible? – desirable? Do we manage present climate risks adequately? Part of adapting to climate change is managing the extremes of the present climate

© UKCIP 2006 Do we notice the weather? Yes Farmers Sailors Operators No Boards Directors Finance Officers

© UKCIP 2006 predict, optimise, relax * Focus on Climate Change – assumes today is OK Led by physical science model developers Uncertainty remains a barrier to decision-making Climate remains a separate issue Decision-makers will always need better data * Thanks to Lenny Smith

© UKCIP 2006 assess, hedge, review * Focus on Climate Risks –assumes today needs attention Led by decision-makers Assess and manage current risks, then turn to future Uncertainty is made explicit and addressed Climate easier to mainstream into everyday Immediate benefits to day job * Thanks to Lenny Smith

© UKCIP Include the hard to cost impacts of what you do to the environment in your plans 2.Be kind to the environment – you may need it one day 3.Address the needs of today while at the same time not compromising the needs of tomorrow 4.Keep on doing business despite the environments impacts on what you do 5.The environment, through climate change, has the power to shut you down – deal with it! Sustainability

© UKCIP 2006 Sustainable Adaptation Dont transfer risk to: Others in society The natural environment The future

© UKCIP 2006 Adaptation in Government Research on Impacts and Adaptation is funded by Defra (CEOSA) on behalf of Devolved Administrations. Defras new Adapting to Climate Change Programme (ACC) deals with policy – remit covers only England. UKCIP budget comes from both these sources. Some of CEOSA has moved to DECC, but domestic adaptation research will join ACC within Defra

© UKCIP 2006 PFI is intended to shift financial risk to private sector (better at managing it?) PFI contracts will see significant climate change. PFI can be a mechanism for managing climate risk. BUT risks must be identified, assigned, and costed. Public sector failure? business opportunity? Private Finance and Climate Risk

© UKCIP